GDT 5/15/23: Braves @ Rangers

Arcia’s .389 xwOBA isn’t far off his .408 wOBA. I don’t expect him to hit to a .389 xwOBA all year or even close, but the idea that he can be a solid hitter with solid defense is clearly not far fetched despite how impossible some thought it was.
 
Thought it was a safe bet for at least 1.5 war. He’s going to crush that number.

Great contract!
 
While it's still pretty early, Ozuna's advanced stats are actually on par with his 2020 season. The main difference being that he had a .391 BABIP in 2020 vs a .136 BABIP this year. His K% is down, his walks are up and he's hitting the ball harder than at any point over the last 2 seasons. This gives me hope that his recent success is more than just a little hot streak. I don't expect him to get back anywhere near 2020 levels, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities that we see Cardinals level Ozuna as a hitter.

Would be nice to see him end up with an OPS near .800. He might actually be moveable in the off-season at that point.
 
Super said:
Arcia’s .389 xwOBA isn’t far off his .408 wOBA. I don’t expect him to hit to a .389 xwOBA all year or even close, but the idea that he can be a solid hitter with solid defense is clearly not far fetched despite how impossible some thought it was.
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Yeah his BABIP is too high to maintain this production, but his EV being over 90 suggests it isn't totally luck either. He's hitting the ball harder than he ever has.

Combined with last year's stats, he now has 300+ PAs as a Brave with a .750+ OPS and an average exit velocity approaching 91. I think it's safe to Striker has struck out on his Arcia take.
 
Carp said:
While it's still pretty early, Ozuna's advanced stats are actually on par with his 2020 season. The main difference being that he had a .391 BABIP in 2020 vs a .136 BABIP this year. His K% is down, his walks are up and he's hitting the ball harder than at any point over the last 2 seasons. This gives me hope that his recent success is more than just a little hot streak. I don't expect him to get back anywhere near 2020 levels, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities that we see Cardinals level Ozuna as a hitter.

Would be nice to see him end up with an OPS near .800. He might actually be moveable in the off-season at that point.
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His hard hit is still down a lot from 2020, ground balls up, liners way down. These things are much better since late April but idk, I think he’s clearly regressed big time still.
 
Super said:
His hard hit is still down a lot from 2020, ground balls up, liners way down. These things are much better since late April but idk, I think he’s clearly regressed big time still.
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Regressed from what? A super short SSS season? Honestly I would expect to get his career averages from here on out which is an 111 WRC+. That's the level of hitter he was signed to be in the first place.
 
Also of note. While the talk is all about 40-40. Only 3 players have done 30-50 (E Davis and Bonds) and nobody has done 30-60. Acuna is currently on pace for 35 and 67.
 
Nozuna has looked better in his PA... I don't care about results, but he is not just up there chasing everything and clobbering catchers.. now he seems to have an idea of what pitch he is attacking but still clobbering catchers. He is definitely not the same hitter he was at the beginning of the year even if he had a crap Babip.. Will it last? I don't know, but at least I don't despise him as much as I did. I wish he would figure out his follow through to stop hitting every catcher.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Nozuna has looked better in his PA... I don't care about results, but he is not just up there chasing everything and clobbering catchers.. now he seems to have an idea of what pitch he is attacking but still clobbering catchers. He is definitely not the same hitter he was at the beginning of the year even if he had a crap Babip.. Will it last? I don't know, but at least I don't despise him as much as I did. I wish he would figure out his follow through to stop hitting every catcher.
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Does he swing a long bat? Maybe longer than average arms? Could be on the catcher to back up
 
The most encouraging sign from Ozuna is the BB rate. It's double what it was last year and back up to where its been when he's actually been good. There are some other encouraging stats. His EV has ticked back up over 90 and his K% is down a bit. His BABIP is just insanely low, less than half his career average. If that normalizes he wont be the star he used to be but his OPS could crack .800.

I can't believe there might be some reason for optimism from Ozuna but there just might be.
 
striker42 said:
The most encouraging sign from Ozuna is the BB rate. It's double what it was last year and back up to where its been when he's actually been good. There are some other encouraging stats. His EV has ticked back up over 90 and his K% is down a bit. His BABIP is just insanely low, less than half his career average. If that normalizes he wont be the star he used to be but his OPS could crack .800.

I can't believe there might be some reason for optimism from Ozuna but there just might be.
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What I'm curious to see is how he is even utilized going forward. Where are the ABs going to come from if hes never going to be used in the field?
 
Aside from injury, there is zero reason why Ozuna should bring a baseball glove to the stadium anymore. He needs to split time at DH with little d when he isn't catching. I would start each guy at DH 3 times a week, with TDA getting a start at catcher once a week to give Murphy a break.
 
Super said:
Arcia’s .389 xwOBA isn’t far off his .408 wOBA. I don’t expect him to hit to a .389 xwOBA all year or even close, but the idea that he can be a solid hitter with solid defense is clearly not far fetched despite how impossible some thought it was.
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Let's dig up all the posts confidently claiming Grissom was clearly better than Arcia. Then let's find the ones where folks thought Shew was an actual option at SS.
 
Carp said:
Aside from injury, there is zero reason why Ozuna should bring a baseball glove to the stadium anymore. He needs to split time at DH with little d when he isn't catching. I would start each guy at DH 3 times a week, with TDA getting a start at catcher once a week to give Murphy a break.
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I'm with you on this one. I'd say two days a week at catcher is logical for TD when the Braves play a number of games in a row. But I'm aligned otherwise.
 
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