Economics Thread

If Joe Biden doesn’t release their slush fund begging for oil from Trump 1, r none of this happens. Oct 7 either

After Trump 1, they were doa
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Tbh, I did actually briefly entertain the possibility that this year was Trump v2.0's version of 2018 and the next year would be cruise control mode for US markets like 2019 was, but I think that's firmly off the table now. Unless volume coming back over the next couple weeks leads to a good push over 629 immediately for QQQ, the 2018 option of a blowoff top into February is off the table too.

We got close to getting to 7k, but I think high 5000's to low 6k's before the SPX pushes over 7k is quite likely now. So, it will fail to be a land of milk and honey type year for the incumbent president yet again overall, but as of now, I think the 8 straight years of a GOP president stretch that would've likely happened without the pandemic interruption does end up occurring.
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Unless/until the rounding top for the S&P invalidates, I would get good and comfy with the idea that this year is going to end up being a mish mash of 2018 and 2022 in markets at least. An erratic, slow downturn that at the most overshoots to 5700ish, but could end at 6100ish.

I low key hate it. I’d honestly rather the bandaid be torn off like 2020 and 2025. But I’m much more prepared than I was involving 2022 because I’m trying to slowly break away from that nasty hyper fixation there. Just grouchy this morning as I didn’t sleep through to my wake up time for other reasons.

Presuming this is all we see, and the only interesting thing we see inflation wise is a temporary gas spike, still think it’s very possible that 8 straight years of GOP presidents just ends up PPD to 24-32 instead of the 16-24 it was very likely to be without COVID and the coming issues means it won’t be 12.
 
https://reason.com/2026/03/21/seatt...nd-lyft-now-the-union-wants-to-limit-drivers/

In recent years, progressive locales like Seattle have experimented with minimum wage laws for rideshare and food delivery drivers. These laws have led to surging prices for rides and delivery, reduced demand for trips and orders, and no evidence of higher take-home pay for drivers.

As demand for trips has plummeted in the wake of the wage hikes, more rideshare drivers are finding themselves working longer hours to achieve the same number of rides as before. Instead of fixing the root of the problem, a union representing Seattle rideshare workers has a new solution: Limit the number of people who can work as Uber drivers.

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Score another win for the healthcare experts. And another if/when the union gets its way, limiting drivers.
 
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