Some Red State/Blue State Indicia
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is the lower cost of living. It has obvious appeal to older people and lower income people.
Young ambitious people go the other direction. Washington state is biggest net gainer of this group.
Young well educated people generally prefer the amenities that come in densely populated areas. There are some of those in red states but their politics and policies are very different from the red hinterland who lose young ambitious people in huge numbers. For example Nashville draws a fair number of young college educated workers but not enough to offset those leaving the rest of Tennessee. And Tennessee doesn't produce a lot of them in the first place.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Both supply and demand are at work. Overly restrictive building policies in places like California. And strong demand to live in places with opportunity and good services and amenities.
It is true red states do more with lower taxes. Thats in large part because federal fiscal transfers help support their safety net and public goods. Low taxes is a brand made possible by generous transfers from blue state taxpayers. No flowers or thank you notes expected.
sturg33
I
Demand? But demand has been decreasing with migration outflow. Has cost of living declined along with that demand increase?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Migration outflow reflects the intersection of supply and demand. Moreover, there are distinct demand curves for different demographic groups. Retirees versus young college graduates for example. That's why we see young ambitious people headed to Washington state at the same time as older groups go to Tennessee, a state that is a net loser of young college graduates in spite of Nashville being able to attract them.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Looking at house prices helps us to understand some of what is happening. Looking at the FHFA House Price Index here are the states with the largest and smallest price change (Q4 2025 over Q4 2024):
The largest house price increases:
1. North Dakota 6.4%
2. Delaware 6.3%
3. Illinois 6.1%
4. Wisconsin 5.7%
5. Michigan 5.3%
6. New York 5.2%
7. New Jersey 5.1%
The largest decreases:
1. Florida -2.7
2. Montana -1.8%
3. Colorado -1.5%
4. West Virginia -1.5%
5. Idaho -1.2%
6. California -0.8%
7. Texas -0.8%
The largest house price increases:
1. North Dakota 6.4%
2. Delaware 6.3%
3. Illinois 6.1%
4. Wisconsin 5.7%
5. Michigan 5.3%
6. New York 5.2%
7. New Jersey 5.1%
The largest decreases:
1. Florida -2.7
2. Montana -1.8%
3. Colorado -1.5%
4. West Virginia -1.5%
5. Idaho -1.2%
6. California -0.8%
7. Texas -0.8%
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The house price index for California is up 52% during the Newsom governorship.
The national index is up 68%.
I think that is a pretty solid indication of a downward shift in California's overall demand curve for housing relative to the rest of the country (especially when you consider how little supply has grown there).
However, this is the overall demand. If you break things down by various demographic groups the data show that California mostly loses older, less well educated and lower income people. I think their permitting policies are badly in need of some changes. Which by the way is happening.
Red states have a different set of problems. They have low house prices. Easy permitting rules. And are not seen as attractive places to start a career by young ambitious people. Although some red state cities stand out as beacons of hope.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's a fair point. Although net migration to Florida showed very sharply in 2025, which contributed to some of the price declines. Builders thought the post-covid bump would be more durable than it turned out to be.
But I agree that permitting practices are one thing that red states do better than blue states.
But I agree that permitting practices are one thing that red states do better than blue states.
sturg33
I
Not just housing.
They tax the shit out of the citizens.
Their gas tax is outrageous.
Insane minimum wage laws driving costs up for the businesses who can survive
Not enforcing the law making insurance costs skyrocket
Their solution to all of this is simply tax more
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Again read the bill. You won't but read the bill. Read the actual summary of the bill instead of zerohedge's article.
Softer than 10 ply.
acesfull86
Well-known member
Now that he’s free, he’d make a great California governor…
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He might prefer being in a state that is a recipient as opposed to a donor in the fiscal transfer system. That seems more in line with his parasitic style.