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There are incompetent people that are passively bad at their jobs. They are well intentioned, but ultimately can only manage to move papers from one stack on top of another. Heck, I’m probably one of these types. Then there are incompetent people that are actively bad at their jobs. They make...

I’m just trying to understand what the goal is. Let’s assume that happens, how long is the US going to need to control the canal? While the ballistics launches have slowed down (which is great), the Iranian drone strikes have increased since the start of the war. All this gets back to my...

It won’t be zero, but if AI indeed reduces marginal costs across the full supply chain, then prices will race to the bottom. The problem is AI compute isn’t cheap and it will become more expensive until we solve energy and infrastructure. The end state of AI could be amazing but I don’t see...

These tools aren’t hard to use. Like at all

You misunderstand the point of bringing up oil prices in the first place. It’s an unprecedented supply shock after less than 2 weeks of conflict. I have no doubts things like SPR releases can help with short term prices (also depleting the reserves isn’t a good thing). But these are not...

Because the G7 is releasing from SPR?

Ha… Indeed.

That first sentence hits hard. 100% aligned. Shuffling deck chairs

I did an econometrics project that predicted the quality of wine based on growing season temperature, rainfall near harvest, heat accumulation during growing season, etc. The R2 was quite high if I remember correctly

I’m more black pilled. I use Claude in my day to day and to be honest I am the inefficiency.

> $120 Me thinks we’ll see some Trump folks spin up a PR campaign in the coming days. I don’t think the missile strike videos will seem as cool when gas > $4 gallon

Even if you don’t, AI robotics aren’t far behind. Work is going to be dramatically different and it’s going to be sooner than anyone of us expect. Best advice is to learn how to use AI agents so you’re not completely left behind (even that seems futile).

US Navy controls the waterways and ports, no? What’s the point of burning oil tankers?

It would be nice if Israel would stop setting oil storage facilities on fire.

Oil > $110

If a single troop touches soil in Iran, it will be the biggest foreign policy disaster since Iraq with the potential to become worse

I despise Lutnick, but what specific thing did he do that would warrant being fired?

I don’t find it likely at all that the Gulf states will stick their neck out to send ground forces into Iran. I will eat crow if they do. But glad to have you on record with “no troops” as your hardline.

Light on specifics “After” what? “Decapitate from the IRGC” what does this mean? “Take a while” how long? “Stabilizing ground force… support from the US” what type of support?