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It is if you get it in your early 20s and don't touch it for a while

I think the point isn't that the "stats people" want to peg every individual prospect to a specific chance of success. The point is that you read these posibraves posts about the farm system, and what they seem to be expecting from it is a pretty significant deviation from the historical norm...

I'd be careful assuming that's the case unless you saw it happening in person. A lot of guys like Touki with questionable command and only two pitches will struggle at that point just because they've thrown a lot of pitches and they're facing the opponent's lineup a third time.

If you think it's insane for a losing team to use meaningless games in September to see what they have in some of their older prospects, I don't know what to tell you.

Oh come on, that is true for players, but it's a massive oversimplification of a manager's role on the team. Should Joe Maddon be fired for giving his starters extra rest after the Cubs clinched home field last year? The fact is that a manager's goals are dependent on context rather than just...

I really think you're overestimating the effect resting the starters would have on attendance. By August in 2015 and 2016 attendance was already sitting well below 50% of capacity for most home games, even dipping down into the 30-35% area for weekday games. At that point you can see...

Not that I'm down on Anderson, but Fried's being held back because of his injury history. If he stays healthy and sustains the stuff he's shown since the end of last season (70ish fastball and curve), he'll leapfrog Anderson no matter how well Anderson pitches this year.

Wait what? Folty was appreciably better than Wisler last year in every significant stat - K/BB, HR/9, FIP, ERA, etc.

You're oversimplifying the issue here. While you're right, a player who has had one TJS is more likely to have another TJS than a player who hasn't had one, the rate of repeat surgeries is still only 10% (according to this article). If the Braves found that teams following your logic regarding...

Is "fantasy baseball people" the new dog whistling term for statheads or something? I've seen a bunch more people complaining about fantasy baseball this offseason and I can't figure out what they're upset about.

To add an example that actually happened - look at the Touki trade. Dave Stewart came out after the trade and said that internally their experience with Touki had led them to believe he wasn't likely to pan out, that he wasn't throwing nearly as hard as prospect publications said he could, etc...

I think he's just confused because he said "the trade was stupid" and then you said "you won't find any cubs fans who were bothered by it" and it came off as though you wanted to rebut what he said, but your statement doesn't really have any bearing on his statement. Then you turned it into a...

I would absolutely do that deal, but there is no chance the Astros move Bregman.

Just curious, why do you think value is assigned arbitrarily?

Right, but in what context is it even valuable to talk about the defensive value he contributed? Teams are going to evaluate him based on the value they would expect him to bring their team in the future, and whatever his current contract in this scenario is will pay him the same regardless of...

When thinking about things like that, you should take your line of thinking to the extreme and see if it still makes sense. If you put mid-prime Andruw Jones in CF on a team where your pitchers strike out literally every batter all year, then yeah, his defensive contribution to that team's...

I think Trumbo is the best comp of all the power-and-nothing-else FA this offseason - and he got 3 years at 12.5 million per, despite being younger and having played better than Kemp the last two seasons.

I think this article does a good job of describing both the human and statistical sides of protection: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists Pitchers are definitely aware of the guy on deck, but in practice it just leads to an uptick in the...

Oh, you're preaching to the choir. I was just curious if he had some way of coming up with that number or if he just pulled it out of his ass.

How did you arrive at 50%?