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It’s all luck.

Let's see if we can put Ozzie's actual numbers into perspective. After yesterday's game, he has played in 81 games--exactly one-half of a full season and has hit 14 HRs. Bear with me here and let's extrapolate those numbers over a full season and Ozzie would have 28 homers (And yes, I know all...

Excellent post. I posted some similar numbers a month or so ago. What Albies has done at this age is rare. I think some folks tend to downplay him for two reasons: 1) His size, and 2) Acuna. Will he match the 25 year old Altuve when he is 25? No one knows. But I wouldn't be shocked. At age 20...

It’s not like Turner was a big free-spending maverick with no regard to profit. You have to remember that in the 80s and 90s the Braves has a huge economic advantage due to the Superstation. While the Braves may have shown little or no profit in those days, Turner Broadcastiing surely did...

Ozzie’s BABIP was .316 in MLB. Not unsustainable by any means.

Am I doing something wrong? Let's test it. I looked at the past 50 years of MLB and searched for 20 year old rookies, who, like Albies, came up later in the season (your garbage time argument), amassed at least 200 PAs, and had a positive WAR. Not surprisingly, there were only 4 such players...

I know you just try to be argumentative with everyone, and that's fine. Look, I don't think, intuitively, that Ozzie will be a power guy. BUT, if you look at his 1/3 season at age 20, the numbers suggest he might. Nowhere did anyone say 'Because Altuve did it, Ozzie might". Again, if you...

Let's examine the numbers closer: Of the 24 20 year olds with higher ISOs than Ozzie you have 10 HoFers (Ott, Teddy, F.Robinson, Foxx, Mantle, Mathews, Kaline, Mays, Griffey, and Cepeda) 5 almost sure-fire HoFers (Stanton, Trout, Harper, Cabrera, and Arod). 2 who probably won't make the HoF...

I don't know. Of all 20 year olds since 1901 with at least 244 plate appearances (Ozzie's 2017 numbers) in MLB, Ozzie had the 25th (out of 128 total) best ISO (.171) of all time. His is better than Hank Aaron's and just behind the 20 year old ISO numbers of Willie Mays, Griffey, Jr. and JHey...

Well, lets just look at his MLB numbers at age 20 (and, yes, I realize that is a small sample). In slightly over 1/3 of a season, Ozzie put up a WAR of 1.4. Projecting that over a full season results in a 4 WAR season at age 20. Do we agree that virtually every non-steroid fueled player has a...

OK, fair enough. But I will answer your original question. I don't think its ever fair to say that "So-and-so at age 20 is likely to become a consistent 6 WAR player". What I believe it is fair to say is that "Based on over 100 years of data, if players such as Albies, put up the numbers Albies...

Please point to where I said it was "likely" that Albies would be a 6 WAR player? What I said was, for all active major and minor league position players through age 20, he is as likely, if not more likely, than anyone else to do so.

Not really league average. His ISO in the International League last year was .155 vs. a .137 league average. AND HE WAS THE YOUNGEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE UNTIL ACUNA WAS PROMOTED. Again, this is a perfect illustration of why age matters. At age 20, he has not reached his peak physical...

Again, no one, at least not me, is predicting that Albies will be a one percenter. That said, take all 21 year olds in baseball (major or minors) and Albies is as likely as anyone else, if not more likely than anyone not named Ronald, to do it, based on his track record to this point. Again...

Go back and look at Ramirez in the minors. NOTHING in those numbers, nor his MLB numbers from ages 21-23 suggests he would put up the ridiculous numbers he put up at age 24. Compare HoRam and Ozzie at every age and you will see that Ozzie is trending on a higher track. Will he go nuclear like...

Here's the Minor data: Age/League/Iso/OBP-BA. Albies listed first 17 RK FRk .080/.098 ,082/.085 18 A Rk ..074/.149 .058/.036 19 AA/AAA Rk/A- .128/.149 .066/.085 20 AAA A-/A+ .155/.147 .068/.041 Partial Season Major Debut Ozzie: 224 PA .180 ISO .068 OBP-BA AGE 20, slash line...

Slight edit. Here's a search of those 4, all of whom have the highest DWar at their position. Of players who have at least 7000 plate appearances and 50% of games played at their positions, here is the WAR ranking of each: Ozzie 4 out of 49 qualified at his position, Brooks, 7/42, Andruw 11/45...

Look at Andruw vs. the guys who got in primarily for defense: Maz, Ozzie, Brooks. Is Maz in the top echelon of offensive 2Bs of all time? Not even close. Ozzie? Perhaps a better offensive player than Maz, but nope, even though both had dramatic post-season homers. Brooks? Like Ozzie, his...

[/B] Other than the 68 doubles and 9 triples he has hit in the last two years, you may be right. He was 8th in the NL in XBH in 2016 and 5th in 2017. Again, he has more XBH on the road than at home. He strikes out a ton and doesn't walk much, but he does everything else well. He's 29, and if...