2015 BABIP Numbers for Hitting Prospects

[nsacpi]

Albies .380
Davidson .363
Obregon .301
Edgerton .332

Dustin Peterson .309
Lien .400
Camargo .313

Rio Ruiz .290
Lipka .323

Mallex Smith .412 in AA, .246 in AAA
Daniel Castro .422 in AA, .293 in AAA
Peraza .305
Bethancourt .347 in AAA, .232 in the majors
Eury Perez .348 in AAA, .362 in the majors

The experience we had with Chris Johnson in 2013 and subsequent years highlights the importance of formulating realistic expectations about what kind of BABIP a player will put up going forward. The task for minor leaguers is more difficult because some important data such as line drive percentage is not available or not as good as similar data for major leaguers and because of the variance in defensive performance by level, which will obviously affect BABIP. But if anything having realistic BABIP projections for minor leaguers and understanding when their performance has been skewed by fluky BABIP results is more important.

Looking at the above data, I think the ones we can pretty much agree on are the outliers. Connor Lien will not sustain a .400 BABIP. The question then is how much of a haircut to apply. Mallex Smith's AA numbers were clearly unsustainable, but his AAA numbers are also unrealistically low. Bethancourt's numbers are intriguing. Without doubt his true level of hitting performance this year is somewhere in between (probably close to the midpoint) his major league and AAA numbers.

 

[Hawk]

I really hesitate to endorse Minor League BABIP (especially in isolation) as a very useful indicator of performance.

You've got guys like Mike Trout and Kris Bryant that put up .400+ BABIP in the Minors, but then guys like Robinson Cano/McCutchen at ~.300. There just are too many extraneous factors clouding the picture to make any sort of objective analysis on BABIP alone.

Interestingly, sustained high BABIP in the Majors is being viewed by more and more analysts as a skill. It's also worth noting how many BABIP leaders are burners. The stat is still very immature. xBABIP looks promising, but we're still a ways.

 

[nsacpi]

I really hesitate to endorse Minor League BABIP (especially in isolation) as a very useful indicator of performance.

You've got guys like Mike Trout and Kris Bryant that put up .400+ BABIP in the Minors, but then guys like Robinson Cano/McCutchen at ~.300. There just are too many extraneous factors clouding the picture to make any sort of objective analysis on BABIP alone.

Interestingly, sustained high BABIP in the Majors is being viewed by more and more analysts as a skill. It's also worth noting how many BABIP leaders are burners. The stat is still very immature. xBABIP looks promising, but we're still a ways.

I think having some multi-year context helps too. A .350 BABIP who has been at .380 for a couple seasons has to be interpreted a bit differently (all other considerations held equal) than someone who has been consistently around .320. In that regard, the .380 Albies is putting up so far doesn't look so flukish. He was at .414 in the GCL and .395 in Danville last year.

Lien's BABIP in the prior three seasons was .337, .307 and .360. So he is set for some major regression from the .400 he has put up so far this year.

 

[KB21]

I think BABIP is a good tool to use to determine what a player's issue might be, but I don't really think it has any real predictive value. A guy like Jose Peraze is more often than not going to have a higher BABIP because of his speed.

Take for instance Braxton Davidson. He's a very patient hitter, but the fact that his BABIP is .363 while is average is around .250 tells me that he has issues with making contact right now. I've felt for a while that his issue is that he is letting himself get into counts that give the pitcher an advantage because he is not assertive enough on pitches he should be smashing early in the count.