2015 Expectations: Middle Infield

[nsacpi]

This is the deepest area for the Braves when you look at the entire system. We shouldn't let the disappointing results of 2014 obscure that. Here is what I would expect from the internal candidates for second and short in 2015 if they were full-time players.

Simmons: .660 OPS and 3.5 WAR (basically I'm splitting the difference between his 2013 and 2014 seasons)

La Stella: .700 OPS and 1.5 WAR (good on base skills, but weak defensively)

Peraza: .660 and 2.0 WAR (less hitting but significantly better defense and baserunning than La Stella)

Gosselin: .660 and 1.5 WAR (significant BABIP regression likely but above average defense)

Pastornicky: .670 and 1.0 WAR (I think he is a slightly better hitter than Gosselin but an inferior defender)

Pena: .640 and 0 WAR (the definition of a replacement player)

Elmer Reyes: .640 and 0 WAR (similar to Pena but younger and a bit more upside, would benefit from more time in AAA)

We got very little at second this year and have the potential to net 1-2 WAR in 2015 compared to this year. Ditto for short if we get even a partial rebound by Simmons.

We see again that Peraza projects as the most productive player at second by a small margin over the alternatives. I think one of the keys to the 2015 season and hopefully many seasons after that is to understand how a player like Peraza works to lenghten your bench, even if he is an everyday player. We have had some of that with Prado and Infante, but I think Peraza could take it to a different level. Having Peraza start 2015 in AAA allows us to keep the starting players at second, third and center on a short leash. Give them a shot and move Peraza in if they falter. It allows us to take some chances on say CJ rebounding or La Stella figuring things out. It even allows us to try to mix and match with the third outfield spot for a month or so if payroll considerations so dictate.

 

[50PoundHead]

I'm really curious to see how the team approaches the second base position. La Stella has a lot of fans and he's a good player, but his ceiling is likely only a smidgen above where it is right now. Peraza could be an impact player. I think the rest of the second base options are utility guys. I like Gosselin, but I think those who view him as a solution at either second or third are unduly optimistic.

 

[Enscheff]

This is the portion of the roster where versatile bench guys like Goss, Pena, Boni, and hopefully a LHed hitting guy that can play 3B (call him McLefty) will be come in handy. It is also the portion of the roster that will require a competent manager to handle, which Fredi has shown he is not.

If we assume the starting IF to be CJ, Simmons and TLS, the new manager will have to understand how to sub in guys like Goss, Pena, Boni and McLefty off the bench. CJ and Simmons can not be allowed to hit late vs RHed flamethrowers in close games with runners on base. CJ and TLS can not be allowed to play defense late in games when the Braves are in the lead.

Therefore, moves like pinch running for Gattis with Goss, and then having Goss come in to play defense at 3B for CJ needs to happen. Pinch hitting McLefty for Simmons late in the game with runners on base and then having Goss come in to play SS needs to happen. Starting McLefty for CJ against particularly tough RHed starters needs to happen. You know, moves that a competent manager should be able to make based on the strengths and weaknesses of the players at his disposal.