nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have a challenge with the starting rotation. Medlen and Beachy are under contractual control but could be non-tendered given they are coming off their second TJ surgery. Harang and Santana will be free agents. Looking at healthy internal options, here is what we can expect from the starting pitching. WAR estimates are based upon the assumption of 30 or more starts.
Teheran: 3.5 FIP and 3.5 WAR in 2015
Wood: 3.1 FIP and 4.0 WAR
Minor: 3.7 FIP and 3.0 WAR
Hale: 4.0 FIP and 2.0 WAR
Martin: 4.3 FIP and 1.0 WAR
What I'm projecting for Hale and Martin does not come close to replacing what we're losing from Santana and Harang (who will finish the year with a combined 5.5 WAR). A full season in the rotation from Wood and a rebound from Minor would more than make up the difference, however. The problem with all this is you have to assume a significant injury or two to the rotation. We need to build enough depth to withstand that. And hopefully we do this without exhausting the budget the way we did with Santana this year. If we pick up a starting pitcher or two, we'll move Martin back to AAA and have some pretty good depth there with him, Hursh, Williams Perez, Schlosser, Northcraft and Thomas candidates for the rotation. The logical trade to me is to use Bethancourt to pick up some starting pitching. If we can move BJ's or CJ's contract in the process, all the better. This would allow us to potentially extend both Heyward and Justin Upton. If we have some money left over we can then consider going after a player like Aoki.
It is ironic to say this given how the pitching has performed compared to the hitters this year, but our biggest need going into 2015 is a starting pitcher or two.
As for the pen, I think we've gotten spoilt with the recent pens we've had. This year's results from the pen are more normal given that we like most other teams don't spend a lot of money on relievers. We have a solid core coming back and it could be a very strong group is Shae Simmons is healthy and pitches like he did early on. We don't really need to add there given that we will be able to choose from Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Simmons, Varvaro, Russell, Avilan and Shreve (that's 8 already for 7 spots). And there are others like Jaime, Harper, Buchter, Hoyt in the system who could help down the line.
Teheran: 3.5 FIP and 3.5 WAR in 2015
Wood: 3.1 FIP and 4.0 WAR
Minor: 3.7 FIP and 3.0 WAR
Hale: 4.0 FIP and 2.0 WAR
Martin: 4.3 FIP and 1.0 WAR
What I'm projecting for Hale and Martin does not come close to replacing what we're losing from Santana and Harang (who will finish the year with a combined 5.5 WAR). A full season in the rotation from Wood and a rebound from Minor would more than make up the difference, however. The problem with all this is you have to assume a significant injury or two to the rotation. We need to build enough depth to withstand that. And hopefully we do this without exhausting the budget the way we did with Santana this year. If we pick up a starting pitcher or two, we'll move Martin back to AAA and have some pretty good depth there with him, Hursh, Williams Perez, Schlosser, Northcraft and Thomas candidates for the rotation. The logical trade to me is to use Bethancourt to pick up some starting pitching. If we can move BJ's or CJ's contract in the process, all the better. This would allow us to potentially extend both Heyward and Justin Upton. If we have some money left over we can then consider going after a player like Aoki.
It is ironic to say this given how the pitching has performed compared to the hitters this year, but our biggest need going into 2015 is a starting pitcher or two.
As for the pen, I think we've gotten spoilt with the recent pens we've had. This year's results from the pen are more normal given that we like most other teams don't spend a lot of money on relievers. We have a solid core coming back and it could be a very strong group is Shae Simmons is healthy and pitches like he did early on. We don't really need to add there given that we will be able to choose from Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Simmons, Varvaro, Russell, Avilan and Shreve (that's 8 already for 7 spots). And there are others like Jaime, Harper, Buchter, Hoyt in the system who could help down the line.
