nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This will be the first in a series looking ahead to next year. We'll take a look at what is available internally, discuss their projections for 2015 and then expand the debate to whether we should go with what is internally available or look for some external solutions. The projections are mine and meant to kick things off. I'm sure everyone will chime in with their own take. Note all the WAR projections are based upon the player playing a full season. Obviously it is not realistic for those who are likely to be subs but it makes it easier to compare across players.
Justin Upton-for 2015 I'd expect an OPS of about .820 and WAR of 3.5.
Heyward-OPS of .760 and WAR of 6.0.
BJ Upton-OPS of .620 and WAR of 0.5.
Cunningham-OPS of .640 and WAR of 1.5
Terdoslavich-OPS of .680 and WAR of 0.5 (assuming he is playing the outfield)
Constanza-OPS of .620 and WAR of 1.5
Peraza-OPS of .660 and WAR of 2.0 (my assumption is he would be a slightly above average defensive outfielder, and would have significant positive value on the basepaths).
To me this little exercise (some will call it making up numbers, but I think any attempt to discuss what to do next year involves "making up numbers" whether you want to call it that or not) reveals a couple interesting things. One is that (and this is not big surprise) a compelling case exists to move BJ and as much of his contract as possible this off-season. The money saved will increase our flexibility to pursue other objectives, and we lose nothing based upon his expected production versus the expected production of the internal alternatives at center.
The other interesting implication is that Peraza likely will be our best internal option for third outfielder (after Jason and Justin). I say third outfielder because it is unclear whether we would be better off with him or Jason in center. At the same time Peraza's edge is not so large over some of the other internal options that we should hand him the job. There are good reasons, including the need for additional seasoning and adaptation to a new position and service time/arbitration clock considerations, to send him to AAA for a month or two at the start of the season. The other interesting thing about Peraza is that he could well also be our best internal option at third or second. We'll get to that in subsequent installments of this series. The question then becomes how much better is he than the next best alternaltive at center, second and third. As the above indicates I think at center he is slightly better than the next best internal alternative.
One last point, we can reasonably expect the outfield to generate about 2 WAR more in 2015 than 2014. Jason and Justin are young enough that they can be expected to be about the same next year. And since we got nothing from the third spot, a 2 WAR improvement overall from the outfield is a reasonable projection, even if we go entirely with internal options.
Justin Upton-for 2015 I'd expect an OPS of about .820 and WAR of 3.5.
Heyward-OPS of .760 and WAR of 6.0.
BJ Upton-OPS of .620 and WAR of 0.5.
Cunningham-OPS of .640 and WAR of 1.5
Terdoslavich-OPS of .680 and WAR of 0.5 (assuming he is playing the outfield)
Constanza-OPS of .620 and WAR of 1.5
Peraza-OPS of .660 and WAR of 2.0 (my assumption is he would be a slightly above average defensive outfielder, and would have significant positive value on the basepaths).
To me this little exercise (some will call it making up numbers, but I think any attempt to discuss what to do next year involves "making up numbers" whether you want to call it that or not) reveals a couple interesting things. One is that (and this is not big surprise) a compelling case exists to move BJ and as much of his contract as possible this off-season. The money saved will increase our flexibility to pursue other objectives, and we lose nothing based upon his expected production versus the expected production of the internal alternatives at center.
The other interesting implication is that Peraza likely will be our best internal option for third outfielder (after Jason and Justin). I say third outfielder because it is unclear whether we would be better off with him or Jason in center. At the same time Peraza's edge is not so large over some of the other internal options that we should hand him the job. There are good reasons, including the need for additional seasoning and adaptation to a new position and service time/arbitration clock considerations, to send him to AAA for a month or two at the start of the season. The other interesting thing about Peraza is that he could well also be our best internal option at third or second. We'll get to that in subsequent installments of this series. The question then becomes how much better is he than the next best alternaltive at center, second and third. As the above indicates I think at center he is slightly better than the next best internal alternative.
One last point, we can reasonably expect the outfield to generate about 2 WAR more in 2015 than 2014. Jason and Justin are young enough that they can be expected to be about the same next year. And since we got nothing from the third spot, a 2 WAR improvement overall from the outfield is a reasonable projection, even if we go entirely with internal options.
