2019 Halfway-ish Check In: Hitters

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
The season is a bit past the halfway mark, and the Braves have become somewhat of a Juggernaut in an NL where parity reigns supreme. I did a 100 PA check in for the Braves regulars, so let's take a look at where those guys stand with 3x-4x more PAs under their belts.

Starting with the All Stars...

Freddie Freeman: .312/.399/.592 (.991 OPS, .279 ISO), 153 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
Freeman is holding up his end of the "3 MVP Candidates" chatter by pacing towards another 5+ WAR season (though he still isn't being rested at all). We are seeing him improve how experienced elite hitters typically improve in the plate discipline area as they age through their 20s. He doesn't pull the ball enough to be an elite power hitter, so we have likely seen his peak HR total of 34 in 2016, but it's just a matter of time before that FB/LD exit velocity starts translating into a few more HRs.

An MVP season from Freeman happens when he manages to pair a .370 BABIP with a ~20% HR/FB rate for a full season to go along with this (hopefully) new 16% walk rate. That's essentially his 6.1 WAR 2016 plus a bunch more walks that would have resulted in an OPS of 1.000+ and 7+ WAR.
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Unfortunately, the 16% BB rate didn't end up being real, but the HR/FB rate has surged up to 24.4% as expected (perhaps even better than expected). The FB/LD exit velocity started translating into more HRs, and now Freeman's .279 ISO looks a lot more peak-Freeman-like. He looks to be on pace for a 5-6 WAR season, and he should get some MVP chatter.

Ronald Acuna .295/.376/.513 (.889 OPS, .218 ISO), 130 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
Like Freeman, Acuna is holding up his end of the "3 MVP candidates" chatter while (mostly legitimately) pacing for 8+ WAR. After seeing him come up in 2018 and predictably have an adjustment period (.742 first half OPS), we have watched him improve at an alarming rate that is quite honestly hard to believe (which is why projection models all underrate him). This is the player we all hoped he would be, and it happened almost immediately at the age of 20/21. Projection models are based on comparable players, and there simply hasn't been many players comparable to Acuna, so he breaks these models.

An MVP season from Acuna looks like...this season. So far in 2019 he is a .950+ OPS monster at the plate and provides significant value in the field and on the bases. That's exactly what wins MVP awards if sustained over 6 months.

My only concern is that also like Freeman, Acuna isn't getting any rest. He has started all 23 games so far, and I'm unaware of him even getting subbed out at the end of a lopsided game. The Braves suggested they would make a concerted effort to preemptively rest guys more this year, but some guys like Freeman and Acuna aren't being rested, and hopefully it doesn't lead to them wearing down later in the season.
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Acuna is currently pacing for ~6 WAR...and is 21.5 years old. He hasn't been able to keep the huge HR/FB rate, and his current rate of 22.5% is more in line with what should be expected from a guy with his level of FB/LD exit velocities. Due to being the only CF-capable player on the roster, he has been rested almost not at all since Inciarte got injured. While some of his numbers regressed a bit, he should also be getting some serious MVP consideration.

Josh Donaldson .253/.358/.478 (.835 OPS, .225 ISO), 117 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
As the third member of the "3 MVP candidates" triumvirate, Donaldson is performing well as he paces for 4+ wins, but the days of him being a true MVP candidate are likely behind him. The decline years of a peak talent 8 win player are still going to be very valuable though, and the Braves are enjoying one of those decline years for $23M...great value. Some of the Braves newfound team-wide plate discipline (11.4% BB rate is #2 in MLB) might partially be chalked up to his influence as well.

The signs of decline are clearly present though. Higher Ks and less FBs is precisely how elite power hitters (non-Bonds category) fall off the table at the end of their career. I would be hesitant to sign JD past this season, and I certainly wouldn't want to be the team who gives him 3+ years and $50M+. I would like to see the Braves offer him a QO after this season if he finishes it healthy, and then let him walk away if he doesn't accept that 1 year $18M-$19M offer.

For the rest of 2019 I expect to see JD be the embodiment of the "three true outcomes hitter"...a lot of BBs, Ks, and HRs. He probably should be swapped in the lineup with Acuna at this point, but who knows if it's worth rocking the boat.
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JD still is exactly what we thought he was...as long as expectations were reasonable. Still a declining elite slugger, still putting up a ~4 win season. It took a while for him to be moved down from the 2 slot into the 4 slot as expected, but I think that's the best place for him in this lineup. His streakiness is going to infuriate folks all year, but he is still capable of being a presence in the middle of the order and can carry the team for a week or so when he's dialed in. No longer an MVP candidate, but a star contributor.

Dansby Swanson: .269/.332/.483 (.815 OPS, .214 ISO), 108 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
It looks like the Real Dansby Swanson has finally arrived. No, not the .523 SLG guy at SS due for regression in the power department. The real healthy Swanson appears to be a good defensive SS with a line approximating .260/.350/.425. A .750-.800 OPS from a good defensive SS is extremely valuable, and is what everyone thought the Braves stole from the DBacks.

Because his name isn't Acuna or Freeman, Snit has rested Swanson 2 games already this season, which is good news for those hoping to see him fresh and healthy all year.
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Expected regressions in both power (negatively) and BABIP (positively) happened as described, and Swanson's overall line is trending towards what should be expected from him. The worsening defense is somewhat concerning, but half a season is still a small sample size for metrics like UZR and DRS, so hopefully that works itself out long term. While Swanson probably isn't the correct choice to bat 2nd full time (though maybe vs LHP), a .750-.800 OPS SS playing average-ish or better defense is still very valuable, as evidenced by his ~3 fWAR pace.

Nick Markakis: .275/.354/.426 (.780 OPS, .151 ISO), 103 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

Enscheff said:
What's Not Real:
The .372 BABIP is easy to identify as unsustainable, but the 30.0% LD rate Markakis has posted so far in 2019 offers hope there is a chance the regression won't be as severe as his .317 career BABIP suggests. It's still probably safe to assume the .341 BA is a bit of a mirage.

Markakis is posting a FB rate of 18.8%, which would be far below his career mark (33.0%). Unless Markakis has somehow transformed into Eric Hosmer on steroids, I expect to see the FB rate increase by quite a bit, which will be the reason the BABIP (and thus BA) regresses.
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Well...Markakis turned back into Markakis, exactly as expected. It turns out there was no reason to hold out hope the BABIP regression wouldn't be severe, and severe it was. He is still posting a stellar .380 OBP vs RHP, and should be part of the leadoff platoon with Swanson or Albies. He's also posting a putrid .567 OPS vs LHP, and should be rested vs them at almost all costs.

Ozzie Albies:
ALL: .281/.342/.465 (.808 OPS, .184 ISO), 107 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
LHH: .249/.327/.415 (.742 OPS, .166 ISO), 91 wRC+
RHH: .385/.395/.628 (1.023 OPS, .244 ISO), 162 wRC+

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
With Ozzie pacing to 5-6 wins at the age of 22 and playing for peanuts, he is quite possibly the most valuable player in MLB. It's easy to get frustrated with the seemingly slow rate of improvement from Ozzie, but fans are losing a bit of perspective seeing Acuna make improvements much faster than is typical of young players. Albies will be (is) a great player, and everyone should be happy he wasn't traded for Dee Gordon.

As of right now Ozzie looks to be a true talent ~.750 OPS hitter vs RHP, and a ~.900 OPS hitter vs LHP. For an everyday player, the RHP/LHP ratio of PAs is roughly 3:1, so applying that ratio to those OPSs results in an overall OPS around ~.787. Coincidentally (not so much), his career OPS is .782. While the Braves could do worse (and have done worse) than an empty .330 OBP in the lead off hole (essentially Ender Inciarte), I still think Albies should be platooned with Markakis in that spot in the lineup.
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Ozzie is still a stud vs LHP, and still mediocre vs RHP. It's pretty clear he should be a top of the lineup guy when a LHP is on the mound, but it will likely take a more analytically savvy manager to juggle the lineup effectively to get Ozzie's RHed stroke into higher leverage scenarios more often.

Ender Inciarte: Injured

Enscheff said:
Moving Forward:
In short, 2019 doesn't look good for Ender. The hope is that whatever is causing him to pull weak grounders to the right side at an alarming rate is also responsible for the K rate, and is a correctable problem. Perhaps a hidden injury? I've seen him do the "stay inside the ball" warm up swing lately, so he's obviously conscious of the issue.

The flip side is declining bat speed and/or reaction time could be causing him to be a guess hitter that is out front when he guesses wrong, and getting beat by hard stuff. There's not enough data to make any sort of conclusion along those lines, so we just have to wait and see.

At least the Braves are finally limiting his exposure to LHP, which needed to happen even if he were performing offensively as we expect.
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No idea how long the back injury was plaguing Inciarte, but he clearly wasn't right. Hopefully he heals up and gets straightened out in time to help the final push towards the playoffs in the 2nd half.

Austin Riley:

He didn't get an original 100 PA check in, but his May vs June splits are very telling.

May: 63 PAs, .356/.397/.746 (1.143 OPS, .290 ISO), 173 wRC+ (.452 BABIP, 46.7% HR/FB)
June: 114 PAs, .226/.287/.491 (.778 OPS, .264 ISO), 97 wRC+ (.274 BABIP, 20.0% HR/FB)

We all saw what happened in May, and we all should have been aware of the major red flags that were present.

Riley's June is more in line with what happens when all the BABIP and HR/FB luck is stripped out of his production. The June .274 BABIP may or may not be low for his true talent, but the 20% HR/FB rate is precisely in line with what's expected from a guy who doesn't hit the ball as hard as Acuna and Donaldson. He has serious contact and plate discipline issues, and if they aren't corrected his low-OBP/high-ISO batting line is what we can expect moving forward.
 
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McCann .267/.339/.466 wOBA .340 xwOBA .334 fWAR 0.7

A very good value signing. He was injured last year and has rebounded to a level similar to where he was two years ago. His numbers are also receiving a boost because we are limiting his PAs against lefties to a smaller percentage than was the case when he was a regular catcher. The added rest from being in a position sharing role is also probably helping.

There is a macro theme here worth mentioning: veteran players who have been regulars are often very good part-time players as they age. You get the veteran laidership without the downside.

It is a transition to consider for Markakis in the second half of this year and next season.

So far this year 12% of McCann's PAs have come against lefties. For Markakis that number is 23%.
 
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nsacpi said:
McCann .267/.339/.466 wOBA .340 xwOBA .334 fWAR 0.7

A very good value signing. He was injured last year and has rebounded to a level similar to where he was two years ago. His numbers are also receiving a boost because we are limiting his PAs against lefties to a smaller percentage than was the case when he was a regular catcher. The added rest from being in a position sharing role is also probably helping.

There is a macro theme here worth mentioning: veteran players who have been regulars are often very good part-time players as they age. You get the veteran laidership without the downside.

It is a transition to consider for Markakis in the second half of this year and next season.
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Snitker is just too attached to Markakis after Neck stuck up for him in the media about Hart/Coppy possibly firing Snit.
 
Individual-1 said:
Snitker is just too attached to Markakis after Neck stuck up for him in the media about Hart/Coppy possibly firing Snit.
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Snit is being slowly assimilated. A senior member of the analytics team is going to sit down with him during the next week and show him data that will prove that Muk's veteran laidership actually goes up when he sits against lefties.
 
nsacpi said:
McCann .267/.339/.466 wOBA .340 xwOBA .334 fWAR 0.7

A very good value signing. He was injured last year and has rebounded to a level similar to where he was two years ago. His numbers are also receiving a boost because we are limiting his PAs against lefties to a smaller percentage than was the case when he was a regular catcher. The added rest from being in a position sharing role is also probably helping.

There is a macro theme here worth mentioning: veteran players who have been regulars are often very good part-time players as they age. You get the veteran laidership without the downside.

It is a transition to consider for Markakis in the second half of this year and next season.

So far this year 12% of McCann's PAs have come against lefties. For Markakis that number is 23%.
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McCann 171 PA 104 wRC+ .7 WAR 1 year/2m
Suzuki 166 PA 104 wRC+ .5 WAR 2 years/10m

My thesis for McCann was that his three years prior to 2018, were roughly the same as Suzuki's years in Atlanta, that McCann was a more obvious platoon mate for Flowers, and that he would probably provide more defensive/framing value. I thought a small investment in McCann returning from injury was a better move than a larger investment in Suzuki. I kind of thought Suzuki was perhaps due for some offensive regression, but he's largely avoided that. But McCann's price was so low that the Braves cut could him or even carry him as a third catcher without too much payroll pressure.

This bet has payed off exactly like I hoped.

......

Markakis has awful BABIP luck in May and it remained below average in June. I do think his days as a starter in Atlanta should be nearing their end. I think he needs regular rest vs LHP, but I'm concerned that even an enlightened manager would not have an ideal lineup to juggle. You can argue for the Camargo/Riley in the corners lineup, but that's just bound to cost you an important game defensively and Riley has not hit well enough in his second month to necessarily feel comfortable with that. I understand Nick doesn't have much range and doesn't have a great arm any more, but I still feel it's less likely he makes a major mistake out there than two 3B. I'm still curious about Duvall's eventual role. Perhaps Snit's unwillingness to play matchups is a primary reason he remains down in AAA., but that's the guy the Braves have in Org who might really make the splits work for them. He's a good enough OF to where you could pair him with Camargo and not feel like you're asking for it.
 
McCann 171 PA 104 wRC+ .7 WAR 1 year/2m
Suzuki 166 PA 104 wRC+ .5 WAR 2 years/10m

Realmuto 310 PA, 95 wRC+, 2.5 WAR 5.9m/Arb 3 (Sixto Sanchez 60 FV, Will Stewart 40 FV, Jorge Alfaro (96 wRC+, 1 WAR), 250k international bonus money

Grandal 314 PA, 132 wRC+, 2.9 WAR 18.25m, Draft Pick compensation

Ramos 265 PA, 102 wRC+, .3 WAR 2/19m (10m option)
 
Southcack77 said:
McCann 171 PA 104 wRC+ .7 WAR 1 year/2m
Suzuki 166 PA 104 wRC+ .5 WAR 2 years/10m

Realmuto 310 PA, 95 wRC+, 2.5 WAR 5.9m/Arb 3 (Sixto Sanchez 60 FV, Will Stewart 40 FV, Jorge Alfaro (96 wRC+, 1 WAR), 250k international bonus money

Grandal 314 PA, 132 wRC+, 2.9 WAR 18.25m, Draft Pick compensation

Ramos 265 PA, 102 wRC+, .3 WAR 2/19m (10m option)
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Grandal/Mac would be a crazy good catching combo next season.
 
nsacpi said:
Grandal is a switch hitter who is better from the left side.
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Agree for the most part.

Flowers is also the one under control. Still, Contreras destroying Flowers' career is a consideration here.

2019

135 wRC+ vs LHP
130 wRC+ vs RHP

2018

106 wRC+ vs LHP
131 wRC+ vs RHP

Career:

110 wRC+ vs LHP
121 wRC+ vs RHP
 
Pairing Grandal with Flowers with the idea of Grandal moving into a shared role with Contreras or Lango at the end of the contract still seems like the best way to spend the resources the Braves have.
 
Enscheff said:
Pairing Grandal with Flowers with the idea of Grandal moving into a shared role with Contreras or Lango at the end of the contract still seems like the best way to spend the resources the Braves have.
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I wonder if they will try and get chance sisco. He’s good and controlled. Baltimore just drafted a college catcher 1 and they are light on pitching. Aa already swung a deal with them
 
How often do hitters like Riley significantly improve their patience at the plate?
 
weso1 said:
How often do hitters like Riley significantly improve their patience at the plate?
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Not sure. Something worth digging into though.

The problem is Riley’s issues are two fold: he swings at a lot of bad pitches, and he swings and misses a lot of good pitches. Both rates would rank among the league leaders, and I can’t find any examples of a successful MLB player with that type contact profile.

It seems more likely a guy can learn not to chase bad pitches, and seems harder to teach a guy how to make contact when he swings at pitches in the zone. Someone would have to dig into it a bit and see what kinds of past data they can find.
 
For example, the only player with 150+ PAs last year to post an O-Swing% of 40%+ and a Z_Contact% around 75% was Jorge Alfaro.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...rtdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2018-12-31&sort=3,d

He ended up with a line of .262/.324/.407 in 2018, and .259/.308/.425 so far this year. Both offensive lines were good for a 96 wRC+, or 4% below MLB average. That's likely what we can expect from Riley in terms of BA and OBP.

I would expect Riley to have a better ISO, which should bring Riley's line up to roughly league average.

Problem is, Alfaro is providing defensive value by posting that line at the catcher position, and Riley will be playing 3B and/or LF where the bar is higher offensively.

In short, there are red flags with Riley that have been apparent for a while now. Keep an eye on the O-Swing% and Z-Contact% because those are the key stats that define those issues.
 
Dansby is the guy where my eyes don’t match the numbers. He seems to be working a lot of deep counts. He seems to hit the ball into a lot of hard outs.
 
Individual-1 said:
Snitker is just too attached to Markakis after Neck stuck up for him in the media about Hart/Coppy possibly firing Snit.
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In the media, hell, the dude literally made a phone call threatening to leave the field, walk into the clubhouse, and physically assault a 60+ year old man for thinking about firing Snit. He's a psycho with a lifetime job now.
 
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