Every full time position player just broke the magical 100 PA threshold last night, so now is a good time to check in and see how the hitters are doing. TDA is only sitting at 84 PAs, but he's still a qualifying hitter, so let's include him anyways. CF is going to be an issue all season it appears, and we don't have anyone at that position to analyze...so this will include 7 players.
As usual, we will compare actual stats to expected stats to get an idea if each hitter should be expected to perform better or worse as the season progresses. I don't think it's spoiling much to say up front that the bulk of the Braves offense is underperforming their expected stats and should hit better as the season progresses....but how much better?
Acuna
Actual: .341/.443/.705 (1.148 OPS), 14.2% BB, 13.2% K
Expected: .376/.472/.744 (1.216 OPS), .497 xwOBA
As amazing as he's been, he's actually been a little unlucky on balls in play. It's obviously nothing to complain about, but what Acuna is doing is very real. His latest trick is lowering his O-Swing% by 5%+, meaning he is now swinging at far fewer balls out of the zone...AKA...taking the step from a great hitter to an elite hitter. Barring injury, we may very well be witnessing the 8+ fWAR MVP season we've been hoping to see from Acuna...hopefully the first of many.
Freeman
Actual: .237/.372/.495 (.867 OPS), 16.8% BB, 13.3%K
Expected: .309/.416/.640 (1.056 OPS), .438 xwOBA
Don't let the good-not-great batting line fool you; Freeman is still an elite hitter. His laughably low .211 BABIP (.339 career) is going to regress positively, and his production will follow. You are about to read something similar a few more times in this post: this hitter is good, and will be just fine.
Albies
Actual: .227/.300/.500 (.800 OPS), 8.0% BB, 16.0% K
Expected: .318/.382/.558 (.940 OPS), .395 xwOBA
The only Braves hitter with a more laughably low BABIP than Albies' .217 mark (career .303) is Freeman, and it has nowhere to go but up. He's probably hitting a few too many FBs (45.9% in 2021 vs 39.3% career), especially as a LHH, but nothing that should be tanking his BABIP by almost 100 points. He is maintaining his typical aggressive approach, and his contact numbers all look fine. The good news is maybe Snit has finally realized Albies has no business batting at the top of the order (especially vs RHP).
Riley
Actual: .299/.409/.442 (.851 OPS), 11.8% BB, 23.7%K
Expected: .250/.362/.423 (.785 OPS), .344 xwOBA
The lone guy on the roster getting a bit lucky, and even the expected numbers are nice (and most importantly...real). In 2019, Riley was swinging too often at pitches out of the zone (41.3% O-Swing%) and missing too many pitches inside the zone (63.2% Z-Contact%), and needed to massively improve in both areas to have any shot at being a MLB hitter. He's done exactly that in 2021 (building on improvements he made in 2020), lowering his O-Swing% to 26.4% and increasing his Z-Contact% to 84.3%. Riley now looks like he has a very real chance of being an above average hitter capable of holding down the 5/6 spot for a contender (or the 3 spot for those going by "the book").
Swanson
Actual: .189/.267/.316 (.583 OPS), 6.7% BB, 29.5% K
Expected: .255/.326/.469 (.795 OPS), .340 xwOBA
It's probably time to stop hoping Swanson is going to become some sort of offensive star, but like almost all Braves hitters, he's had some poor April luck. His .258 BABIP (career .305) is dragging down the slash line, and if he were producing at his expected rates nobody would complain about that from the SS position. In fact, folks would be stoked to have that offense coming from the SS position in the 6/7 spot of the order.
Ozuna
Actual: .202/.295/.313 (.608 OPS), 10.7% BB, 25.0% K
Expected: .242./.330/.407 (.737 OPS), .321 xwOBA
We knew Ozuna was going to regress negatively in 2021, but certainly not like this. Like every other Braves hitter not named Riley, his .250 BABIP (.317 career) is dragging the line down. The 10.0% HR/FB rate (16.4% career) is also going to improve. Make no mistake, Ozuna is not hitting well, but if his April OPS was the expected .737, the narrative would be more along the lines of "he just hasn't gotten the power stroke going yet". As things currently stand, he is the ideal #3 hitter for this lineup when he is going well: a hitter folks think is better than he actually is, and therefor fits the part of the #3 hitter to casual fans.
TDA
Actual: .215/.250/.342 (.592 OPS), 4.8% BB, 22.6% K
Expected: .263/.295/.467 (.762 OPS), .321 xwOBA
Surprise! Another poor luck Braves hitter. Along with Ozuna, TDA was the other guy everyone expected to repress negatively from his 2020 production. We all probably expected something like that .762 OPS line from him because that's more or less the hitter he is. And that hitter is great at the catcher position batting 6/7 in the order, which is exactly what I expect him to be doing within the next couple months.
As usual, we will compare actual stats to expected stats to get an idea if each hitter should be expected to perform better or worse as the season progresses. I don't think it's spoiling much to say up front that the bulk of the Braves offense is underperforming their expected stats and should hit better as the season progresses....but how much better?
Acuna
Actual: .341/.443/.705 (1.148 OPS), 14.2% BB, 13.2% K
Expected: .376/.472/.744 (1.216 OPS), .497 xwOBA
As amazing as he's been, he's actually been a little unlucky on balls in play. It's obviously nothing to complain about, but what Acuna is doing is very real. His latest trick is lowering his O-Swing% by 5%+, meaning he is now swinging at far fewer balls out of the zone...AKA...taking the step from a great hitter to an elite hitter. Barring injury, we may very well be witnessing the 8+ fWAR MVP season we've been hoping to see from Acuna...hopefully the first of many.
Freeman
Actual: .237/.372/.495 (.867 OPS), 16.8% BB, 13.3%K
Expected: .309/.416/.640 (1.056 OPS), .438 xwOBA
Don't let the good-not-great batting line fool you; Freeman is still an elite hitter. His laughably low .211 BABIP (.339 career) is going to regress positively, and his production will follow. You are about to read something similar a few more times in this post: this hitter is good, and will be just fine.
Albies
Actual: .227/.300/.500 (.800 OPS), 8.0% BB, 16.0% K
Expected: .318/.382/.558 (.940 OPS), .395 xwOBA
The only Braves hitter with a more laughably low BABIP than Albies' .217 mark (career .303) is Freeman, and it has nowhere to go but up. He's probably hitting a few too many FBs (45.9% in 2021 vs 39.3% career), especially as a LHH, but nothing that should be tanking his BABIP by almost 100 points. He is maintaining his typical aggressive approach, and his contact numbers all look fine. The good news is maybe Snit has finally realized Albies has no business batting at the top of the order (especially vs RHP).
Riley
Actual: .299/.409/.442 (.851 OPS), 11.8% BB, 23.7%K
Expected: .250/.362/.423 (.785 OPS), .344 xwOBA
The lone guy on the roster getting a bit lucky, and even the expected numbers are nice (and most importantly...real). In 2019, Riley was swinging too often at pitches out of the zone (41.3% O-Swing%) and missing too many pitches inside the zone (63.2% Z-Contact%), and needed to massively improve in both areas to have any shot at being a MLB hitter. He's done exactly that in 2021 (building on improvements he made in 2020), lowering his O-Swing% to 26.4% and increasing his Z-Contact% to 84.3%. Riley now looks like he has a very real chance of being an above average hitter capable of holding down the 5/6 spot for a contender (or the 3 spot for those going by "the book").
Swanson
Actual: .189/.267/.316 (.583 OPS), 6.7% BB, 29.5% K
Expected: .255/.326/.469 (.795 OPS), .340 xwOBA
It's probably time to stop hoping Swanson is going to become some sort of offensive star, but like almost all Braves hitters, he's had some poor April luck. His .258 BABIP (career .305) is dragging down the slash line, and if he were producing at his expected rates nobody would complain about that from the SS position. In fact, folks would be stoked to have that offense coming from the SS position in the 6/7 spot of the order.
Ozuna
Actual: .202/.295/.313 (.608 OPS), 10.7% BB, 25.0% K
Expected: .242./.330/.407 (.737 OPS), .321 xwOBA
We knew Ozuna was going to regress negatively in 2021, but certainly not like this. Like every other Braves hitter not named Riley, his .250 BABIP (.317 career) is dragging the line down. The 10.0% HR/FB rate (16.4% career) is also going to improve. Make no mistake, Ozuna is not hitting well, but if his April OPS was the expected .737, the narrative would be more along the lines of "he just hasn't gotten the power stroke going yet". As things currently stand, he is the ideal #3 hitter for this lineup when he is going well: a hitter folks think is better than he actually is, and therefor fits the part of the #3 hitter to casual fans.
TDA
Actual: .215/.250/.342 (.592 OPS), 4.8% BB, 22.6% K
Expected: .263/.295/.467 (.762 OPS), .321 xwOBA
Surprise! Another poor luck Braves hitter. Along with Ozuna, TDA was the other guy everyone expected to repress negatively from his 2020 production. We all probably expected something like that .762 OPS line from him because that's more or less the hitter he is. And that hitter is great at the catcher position batting 6/7 in the order, which is exactly what I expect him to be doing within the next couple months.
