2025 ZiPS Projections

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG just released their 2025 projections for the Braves, and I feel like this deserves its own thread. This plus their prospect rankings are the most interesting content released in the public sphere.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/

Acuna (5.1 fWAR): .294/.393/.525, 26 HR, 36 SB

They are projecting 547 PAs after his 2nd major knee surgery. I'm taking the under on all these stats. When he came back from knee surgery in 2022 he posted 2.4 fWAR with a .266/.351/.413 line and only 15 HRs. Why would we expect better than that? Why would anyone with half a brain let him steal 36 bases? This notion that Acuna is going to require time at DH is nonsense because it's very likely his bat won't warrant putting Ozuna on the bench...ever.

Harris (4.7 fWAR): .294/.338/.480, 20 HR, 15 SB

Harris is squarely on the Adam Eaton path, minus a chunk of walks, but plus a chunk of pure talent. I think these are very reasonable numbers, assuming he is in the lineup for 560 PAs.

Riley (4.4 fWAR): .274/.343/.499, 29 HR

Projecting Riley to be the same guy he's been that last 4 seasons isn't exactly ground breaking. If he get 650-700 PAs there's no way he doesn't hit 30+ HRs though. Considering his injury last year was a fluke, I'm going to take the over on the 29 HR.

Olson (3.4 fWAR): .252/.345/.483, 32 HR

Olson is going into his age 31 season, and this is the part of that extension we should all be fearing for a bat-only LHH power goon. Olson showed out well in the 2nd half, and he has a history of alternating good/bad seasons, so let's hope the odd-year 5 fWAR version of Olson shows up. I feel like everyone would be perfectly happy if these projections end up being reality.

Murphy (3.2 fWAR): .236/.326/.433, 17 HR

The projections see him as rebounding to his career averages, which means they see the injury plagued 2024 as a fluke. That's all well and good, except the reality is Murphy doesn't have the best track record health-wise. Still, there's no way he doesn't improve greatly upon last year unless his leg falls off.

Ozuna (2.5 fWAR): .258/.333/.470, 29 HR

Give me the over on every single one of these numbers in his walk year. I'm saying .290/.360/.500.

Albies (2.5 fWAR): .261/.314/.445, 18 HR

We have watched Albies' approach at the plate deteriorate year after year until it reached its low point this season. I thought he would be a decent full time RHH...I was dead wrong. He looked like a pitcher hitting, and the only thing he could do was pull the ball down the line. If this new hitting coach does only one thing, teaching Albies how to be an MLB hitter should be that one thing.

Arcia (1.3 fWAR): .230/.288/.370, 15 HR

While I agree he will likely hit better than last year, Arcia is not a good hitter. We all want to see Adames at SS with Arcia on the bench, but the reality is that an MLB SS for $2M is perfectly viable on a team as stacked as the Braves. If he's the worst player on the field earning the spare change rolling around in the CEO's glovebox, it's hard to complain.

Kelenic (1.3 fWAR): .248/.317/.420, 15 HR

The gamble in LF didn't pay off in 2024. The problem is, unless AA signs Soto, the upgrade from Kelenic to some other 2 fWAR LFer isn't worth the $50M it would cost. So unless AA works a miracle, the best course of action is probably to give Kelenic another 400 PAs as a platoon bat in LF.
 
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First off let me get the obligatory "zips is a retarded projection system that uses a very basic formula that is virtually useless for established players" off my chest.

I would be ecstatic if we got that production from Murphy, Albie's and Kelenic. I do think Ozuna is in for major regression this year. He has just never been consistent year to year. Riley I will take the under just because hamate bone injuries are rough on hitters.nwouodnt be surprised to see him fall off a cliff this year and return to normal in 2026.

Projections that intrigued me were Nick Allen who is projected .249/.311/.335 with +5 defense. I don't know the context of their defensive stat but Arcia is projected +1 and MH is projected plus 7 but with 150 more at bats. I would take the .023 OBP and better defense from Allen over Arcia all day long.

Charles Leblanc is projected .226/.319/.377 with +7 defense on 433 PA. That's pretty decent for a position versatile bench bat. All I ask of these players is to not be OBP black holes and play quality defense.

Drake Baldwin projected only .234/.317/.385 with -2 defense. That would be disappointing to me simply because the vast majority of his at bats should come with platoon advantage. I don't think zips takes that into account though.

Nacho Alvarez projected .249/.331/.341 with +2 defense. I would be pretty happy with that for his rookie year.
 
Zips pitchers projections are on crack. Elder 4.16 ERA. Schwellenbach 3.62. Braun 4.39. Winnans 4.22. Dodd 4.54. Come on.
 
The one thing that makes me nervous about Acuña… he was struggling pretty bad (for him) even before he blew out his other knee.
 
thewupk said:
What's wrong with those numbers?
Click to expand...

I don't know what formula is used and I think Schwellenbach's number is on the mark. Elder could be in that ballpark. Hard to get a read on Braun, but probably too low. I think in the case of Dodd and Winans, 4 is probably runs-per-inning and not runs-per-nine.
 
zbhargrove said:
The one thing that makes me nervous about Acuña… he was struggling pretty bad (for him) even before he blew out his other knee.
Click to expand...

I believe the popular theory is that he likely had a more severe injury in spring training than what we were led to believe, like a knee sprain (or the doctors misdiagnosed him, which would be more concerning). And that eventually led to the ACL tear. That certainly seems like the most plausible answer.
 
Carp said:
I believe the popular theory is that he likely had a more severe injury in spring training than what we were led to believe, like a knee sprain (or the doctors misdiagnosed him, which would be more concerning). And that eventually led to the ACL tear. That certainly seems like the most plausible answer.
Click to expand...

I've wondered that as well. He sure didn't look quite himself... which makes it all the more annoying that he was still trying to steal every base he could. I just hope he can stay healthy after he recovers from this one... he's one of the craziest talents we've ever had on this team.
 
I just hope AA sends a hard directive to twit or someone on the coaching staff that every projected starter is to treat spring like batting practice and taking one base at a time..
 
Carp said:
I believe the popular theory is that he likely had a more severe injury in spring training than what we were led to believe, like a knee sprain (or the doctors misdiagnosed him, which would be more concerning). And that eventually led to the ACL tear. That certainly seems like the most plausible answer.
Click to expand...

There's always going to be this fine line with Acuna. He's a physical marvel (at least pre-knee surgeries) and has an unbelievable competitive drive that makes him think he can do just about anything on the baseball field. The downside is that his uber-competitive approach strains his body and also leads to some really stupid mental errors. He's great, so we have to live with both sides of the coin.
 
Acuna is the lowest baseball IQ star player since Manny Ramirez. He has no idea which situations call for certain risks to be taken, and he isn't even consistent with the risks he takes. But whatever, everyone lives with it because the upside is elite, and 1-2 bonehead plays a month don't make much of a difference for an MVP-level contributor.

The issue with Acuna is going to be coming back from a 2nd knee reconstruction. There is a very real possibility he doesn't come back at all, or is a mediocre 2 win guy.
 
Enscheff said:
Acuna is the lowest baseball IQ star player since Manny Ramirez. He has no idea which situations call for certain risks to be taken, and he isn't even consistent with the risks he takes. But whatever, everyone lives with it because the upside is elite, and 1-2 bonehead plays a month don't make much of a difference for an MVP-level contributor.

The issue with Acuna is going to be coming back from a 2nd knee reconstruction. There is a very real possibility he doesn't come back at all, or is a mediocre 2 win guy.
Click to expand...

I’m terrified honestly.
 
Enscheff said:
Acuna is the lowest baseball IQ star player since Manny Ramirez. He has no idea which situations call for certain risks to be taken, and he isn't even consistent with the risks he takes. But whatever, everyone lives with it because the upside is elite, and 1-2 bonehead plays a month don't make much of a difference for an MVP-level contributor.

The issue with Acuna is going to be coming back from a 2nd knee reconstruction. There is a very real possibility he doesn't come back at all, or is a mediocre 2 win guy.
Click to expand...

I thought about the Manny Ramirez comp and other than the difference in speed, it's a pretty good comparison. Manny simply did not believe in the concept of the cut-off man.
 
thewupk said:
What's wrong with those numbers?
Click to expand...

Schwellenbach isn't too bad but should be lower imo. All the others are just ridiculous. None of Elder, Winans, or Brain is posting a sub 5 era as a starter if they get a significant amount of innings this year. You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning twice while holding a winning lottery ticket.
 
zbhargrove said:
The one thing that makes me nervous about Acuña… he was struggling pretty bad (for him) even before he blew out his other knee.
Click to expand...

I think he would have figured it out. It really looked to me like he was just being stubborn and he wasn't going to make the necessary changes until he hit rock bottom. Which probably would have resulted in a monster second half after a terrible first half. His infatuation with stolen bases needs to go. If he won't listen then we need to trade him as soon as he gets his value back up because a long term deal would be suicide.
 
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