7/28/2015 MINORS TUESDAYFINAL ... Riley homers again

Bethancourt is giving me reason to believe he could be a useful ML player. Not a star, but a useful player.
 
Braxton Davidson is a player that I am high on because he has the ability, but I have been disappointed with what he has shown so far. The walks are great, but they are completely offset by the lack of consistent contact and the lack of power he has shown to this point. A guy with his tools shouldn't have a .129 ISO in his first full season. Put the stats aside though. I watched some footage of Braxton hitting, and I think I know what his issue is, or at least what's leading to his swing being long and him losing his power. He's got an exaggerated leg kick when he loads. It's almost like BJ Upton in that he will externally rotate and adduct his front leg on his load. When he transfers that energy though, he is opening up his hips too soon and his front foot lands in an open stance. The hands are lagging behind, and many times, the hands come around the ball instead of staying inside the ball.

What gives me some hope with him is that his hands are very quick and very strong. When he gets his timing down and corrects his lower body flaw, I think we will see a big jump in his power numbers and a decrease in the # of strike outs he has.
 
KB21 said:
What gives me some hope with him is that his hands are very quick and very strong. When he gets his timing down and corrects his lower body flaw, I think we will see a big jump in his power numbers and a decrease in the # of strike outs he has.
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Hopefully he does, Braxton seems like a guy who has huge boom/bust potential depending on how his hit tool develops.
 
Ok I see some of you still arent getting it. MLB teams do not work off the ranking lists you and I see. MLB teams put in 1000 times the work that these "experts" do. If other teams worked off the MLb.com rankings then yeah it would be easy to sit back and try and draft some of the players later but its not that simple. I am not telling you that you have to like the picks. I loathed a lot of the high draft picks like Cody Johnson, Mike Minor, Gilmartin and Hursh. We drafted Minor 7th and he was ranked 30th yet the Nationals were a lock to take him at 10 if we didnt. With the new draft pool rules the amount of money you have to spend is far more important when it comes to getting value. Like the Astros with 17 million to spend in the draft because they had 2 top 5 picks. Nearly every team passed on Cameron not because he wasnt BPA but because of how much he wanted to sign. Anyone outside of the Top 5 would be going way over slot to sign him meaning they get more value in Cameron but have to take a lesser player with another pick. Just go look at something like BA's top 500 rankings then look at where they are drafted, outside of the first 20 or so picks many are drafted pretty far from where their ranking was.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Ok I see some of you still arent getting it. MLB teams do not work off the ranking lists you and I see. MLB teams put in 1000 times the work that these "experts" do. If other teams worked off the MLb.com rankings then yeah it would be easy to sit back and try and draft some of the players later but its not that simple. I am not telling you that you have to like the picks. I loathed a lot of the high draft picks like Cody Johnson, Mike Minor, Gilmartin and Hursh. We drafted Minor 7th and he was ranked 30th yet the Nationals were a lock to take him at 10 if we didnt. With the new draft pool rules the amount of money you have to spend is far more important when it comes to getting value. Like the Astros with 17 million to spend in the draft because they had 2 top 5 picks. Nearly every team passed on Cameron not because he wasnt BPA but because of how much he wanted to sign. Anyone outside of the Top 5 would be going way over slot to sign him meaning they get more value in Cameron but have to take a lesser player with another pick. Just go look at something like BA's top 500 rankings then look at where they are drafted, outside of the first 20 or so picks many are drafted pretty far from where their ranking was.
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The lists out there predraft are an amalgam of private draft evaluations, camp and summer league reviews, industry intelligence from those in scouting positions from various teams around the league. Are they perfect? No. Of course not. But, when you look at multiple lists and compare it gives you a good idea of where players are viewed by the industry. Do teams find "gems" or "diamonds in the rough?" All the time. But, when you make a living at bucking the trends you are essentially saying that your scouts are better than all other team scouts and private talent evaluators combined. When you have one, it's easy to justify -"We saw this guy a lot and loved him and were afraid he wouldn't be there when we next picked so yeah we drafted him a little early but expect it to pay off." But, when that becomes pick after pick, I think it becomes suspect.

But, all in all, I don't overly have a problem with the draft. I just think there are several players that were picked who could have been had at least one Braves pick later than where they were drafted. Was it about the money? Maybe. BUT, IMO, it would be better to spend over slot for a high end early round player and lose the opportunity to sign your #10-#15 picks for example than to take a lesser talent so you can grab bodies later in the hope you will strike gold. Striking gold DOES happen but the odds are not good.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The lists out there predraft are an amalgam of private draft evaluations, camp and summer league reviews, industry intelligence from those in scouting positions from various teams around the league. Are they perfect? No. Of course not. But, when you look at multiple lists and compare it gives you a good idea of where players are viewed by the industry. Do teams find "gems" or "diamonds in the rough?" All the time. But, when you make a living at bucking the trends you are essentially saying that your scouts are better than all other team scouts and private talent evaluators combined. When you have one, it's easy to justify -"We saw this guy a lot and loved him and were afraid he wouldn't be there when we next picked so yeah we drafted him a little early but expect it to pay off." But, when that becomes pick after pick, I think it becomes suspect.

But, all in all, I don't overly have a problem with the draft. I just think there are several players that were picked who could have been had at least one Braves pick later than where they were drafted. Was it about the money? Maybe. BUT, IMO, it would be better to spend over slot for a high end early round player and lose the opportunity to sign your #10-#15 picks for example than to take a lesser talent so you can grab bodies later in the hope you will strike gold. Striking gold DOES happen but the odds are not good.
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From what I've heard the draft boards of the various teams diverge quite a bit after the Top 30 picks. So once guys like Riley are being selected in the second round and later there is very little consensus. Teams can't really guess where other teams have players rated after the Top 30. They have to pick based upon their own draft board.
 
We can always argue about the relative merits of the scouting services and how closely they reflect both reality and the evaluation methods of each team. I think what happens under the new rules is that teams try to draft guys as closely as they can to the slot value assigned to each pick matching what their scouts have discerned to be a draftee's asking price. Riley had made it clear that he wanted $1.6 MM or thereabouts. That was slightly above the slot value for the slot in which he was picked. I don't have all the picks in front of me, but I remember the Braves going above slot for Graham as well and going under slot on Guardado and Moore (which was slated). They also went over slot for Jones, Ellison, and Johnson-Mullins after Round 10. It's a challenge to play mix-and-match and still land the guys you want to land, but by sticking close to slot on most guys, you should be able to move around enough money to get the guys you really want. Again, that doesn't quell the difference of opinion on how certain draftees are viewed, but I think the Braves found the guys they valued and paid them what it would take to get it done. We'll see how it plays out.
 
Braxton may end up being more KJ than Freddie Freeman. I like the kid a lot and am not running him down, by any means, but I think we should temper expectations while he's figuring it out.
 
Julio3000 said:
Braxton may end up being more KJ than Freddie Freeman. I like the kid a lot and am not running him down, by any means, but I think we should temper expectations while he's figuring it out.
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Agreed. I've seen him more than most on the board. (May be a few others), but I can tell you that there are times he's got it figured out and other times you wonder what the hype is about. And I've got video and pics so before I'm bashed, I'm saying that I love Braxton. I think he's going to be good, but I think he needs to figure out who he is. I know he changed his swing for more contact, but if you have a contact rate that is less than stellar, then you need to drive the ball. I've seen the ability in him to hit about 15 this year, but his approach is almost too cerebral.
 
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