Arcia Extended

S

Slippyjms

Well-known member
Haven't seen this anywhere but apparently Arcia has signed a 3 year extension with a club option for a 4th year. 3/7.3 million. Option 2mm 1mm buyout.
 
It was in one of the other threads. I think it's a reasonably good move. He's kind of a Utility+ guy because unlike a lot of back-ups, I don't have a problem with Arcia getting extended time at a position. He's not a world-beater, but at the least we have at least a solid back-up shortstop with some pop. I know some are disappointed he's the starter, but given the rest of the line-up, any hiccups he has with the bat can be covered.
 
Keeping a competent utility player around is great. Having to rely on him to be the everyday SS is not so great.
 
The broadcast was saying they saw something in Arcia that they think he will have a break out year. But then they also said Grissom was the guy and he was doing the work and looking good.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
The broadcast was saying they saw something in Arcia that they think he will have a break out year. But then they also said Grissom was the guy and he was doing the work and looking good.
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That's what all broadcast teams everywhere do these days. I'm sure the Pirates, Nationals, and Marlins broadcast teams are all talking playoffs.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
The broadcast was saying they saw something in Arcia that they think he will have a break out year. But then they also said Grissom was the guy and he was doing the work and looking good.
Click to expand...

This is the second extension the braves have given him since they traded for him. I think the Braves think he's the answer at the SS. His bat has continued to improve since he's gotten here as well. The team very under the radar has managed to get 6 years of Arcia's prime under 10 mil for just over 10 mil. If he manages to be a 2 WAR SS for the remainder of the deal he'll be a steal.
 
“The answer” at SS will be worth more than $2M per year. The only question Arcia is the answer to is “who can play several positions cheaply for a couple months without killing the team until an impact solution can be found?”.

That guy is great to have on the roster, and that’s what Arcia is.
 
If Arcia turns into the biggest turd who has ever worn a Braves uniform, this contract is still negligible. It’s less than 1% of the payroll.

We have played some real deadweight up the middle the last few seasons (Gosselin, Cano, O’Flarety). I’ll take the baseline competence he provides for something barely more than the league minimum and I’ll take it with a smile on my face
 
thethe said:
Arcia seems like a minimum 1 WAR player from my eyes. This is a great deal.
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Arcia has eclipsed 1 fWAR exactly once in his career. That was his second year in the bigs where he managed 2 WAR in nearly 550 PAs.

Not sure why he would be a 1 WAR minimum player when he's only done it once in 7 big league seasons.

There's absolutely nothing special about Arcia. He's as mediocre and replaceable as they come. Don't let a hot start against bad pitching fool you into thinking he's more than he is.
 
striker42 said:
Arcia has eclipsed 1 fWAR exactly once in his career. That was his second year in the bigs where he managed 2 WAR in nearly 550 PAs.

Not sure why he would be a 1 WAR minimum player when he's only done it once in 7 big league seasons.

There's absolutely nothing special about Arcia. He's as mediocre and replaceable as they come. Don't let a hot start against bad pitching fool you into thinking he's more than he is.
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He’s paced over 1 war with full seasons ABs in 3 of last 6 years. And in one of years he didn’t he had 89 PAs so who knows where he ends up with more time as he started doing much better the following year.

I don’t think he’s anything more than a 1-1.5 player with full season ABs.
 
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striker42 said:
Arcia has eclipsed 1 fWAR exactly once in his career. That was his second year in the bigs where he managed 2 WAR in nearly 550 PAs.

Not sure why he would be a 1 WAR minimum player when he's only done it once in 7 big league seasons.

There's absolutely nothing special about Arcia. He's as mediocre and replaceable as they come. Don't let a hot start against bad pitching fool you into thinking he's more than he is.
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Ya know. Zips does the hard part so you don’t have to go cherry pick arbitrary endpoints to make your case.

Next 3 years projections (~350 at bats per season)

1.4 WAR
1.1 WAR
0.9 WAR
 
chop2chip said:
Ya know. Zips does the hard part so you don’t have to go cherry pick arbitrary endpoints to make your case.

Next 3 years projections (~350 at bats per season)

1.4 WAR
1.1 WAR
0.9 WAR
Click to expand...

Looks like complex projection systems agree with thethe
 
thethe said:
He’s paced over 1 war with full seasons ABs in 3 of last 6 years. And in one of years he didn’t he had 89 PAs so who knows where he ends up with more time as he started doing much better the following year.

I don’t think he’s anything more than a 1-1.5 player with full season ABs.
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You're assuming a player playing part time will produce at the same rate when they play full time. That's often not the case. Part time players often are picked for favorable matchups. When they go full time they have to face unfavorable matchups.

There's a such thing as negative value. A player can have positive value against favorable matchups and negative value in the added PT of regular starts. There's evidence that was Arcia last year.

When Ozzie went down Arcia started to get regular PT. He got a lot of ABs in June and July. His wRC+ took a nosedive those two months. He was way overmatched as a starter.

It's very possible that additional playing time for Arcia could actually result in reducing his WAR rather than increasing it.
 
striker42 said:
You're assuming a player playing part time will produce at the same rate when they play full time. That's often not the case. Part time players often are picked for favorable matchups. When they go full time they have to face unfavorable matchups.

There's a such thing as negative value. A player can have positive value against favorable matchups and negative value in the added PT of regular starts. There's evidence that was Arcia last year.

When Ozzie went down Arcia started to get regular PT. He got a lot of ABs in June and July. His wRC+ took a nosedive those two months. He was way overmatched as a starter.

It's very possible that additional playing time for Arcia could actually result in reducing his WAR rather than increasing it.
Click to expand...

It’s certainly possible. It’s just unlikely based on what we’ve seen of his defensively and more recently what he has shown with the bat.

And of course we are still just talking about 1-1.5 war. Not a high hurdle to clear.
 
thethe said:
Looks like complex projection systems agree with thethe
Click to expand...

The complex systems all predict his offense to be below average and his defense to be very good. They seem to be a bit skewed by the fact that Arcia was a much better defender early in his career.

But Arcia's defense has eroded big time. He's nowhere near the defender he was when he first came up. He's been below average the last couple of years. If he's below average both offensively and defensively, it's unlikely he'll reach his WAR predictions.

Maybe he turns it around. Maybe he suddenly becomes a better hitter or fielder. But there's not much reason to believe he's a guaranteed 1 WAR.

But also, why would we be happy with 1 WAR? That would rank as the worst starting SS in the majors last year.
 
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