Just after the half way point seems like a good time to take a look at how the Braves pitchers' arsenals have changed since 2017, for better or worse.
The Braves have 3 main SPs from 2017 still going strong in 2018...
Folty
FA: 97.0 mph (+1.2 mph), 4.0" HMov (-0.9"), 10.0" VMov (-0.2")
SI: 97.4 mph (+1.6 mph), 8.9" HMov (+0.3"), 6.9" VMov (-0.3")
SL: 86.5 mph (-0.1 mph), 2.8" HMov (+1.0"), 0.7" VMov (-1.9")
CU: 80.4 mph (-0.1 mph), 2.9" HMov (+1.7"), -2.8" VMov (-1.1")
CH: 8.5 delta (-0.5 mph), 8.5" HMov (+0.3"), 6.4" VMov (-0.3")
We are seeing Folty being a physical freak that defies typical aging curves. Both fastballs have added velocity while losing minimal movement. Both pitches have increased half a grade since 2017. He has added quite a bit of movement to the SL, both away from the batter and sink, making it a solidly average or a bit better. The CU also gained some movement, and now verges on usable. The CH remains largely unchanged, and is still an average pitch. Folty's success is due to his increased K rate, which is is due to the increase in fastball velocity.
Newk
FA: 93.3 mph (-0.9 mph), 4.1" HMov (-2.1"), 9.7" VMov (-1.0")
SL: 80.5 mph (-0.7 mph), 6.7" HMov (+0.4"), -2.4" VMov (-0.8")
CU: 76.7 mph (-2.0 mph), 5.0" HMov (+1.0"), -10.7" VMov (-3.9")
CH: 6.4 delta (-1.5 mph), 6.8" HMov (-2.1"), 5.3" VMov (-1.4")
Newk's velocity is declining across the board, as is typical for pitchers in their mid-20s. As a result, his FA has lost half a grade, but is still easily plus. He has sacrificed some velocity on the CU for added movement, and both his breaking balls are still plus to plus-plus. The CH is still usable. Newk's control is undoubtedly improved, and now it's a race between his improving control and his declining velocity that will determine how successful he ultimately becomes.
Teheran
FA: 90.4 mph (-1.0 mph), 4.1" HMov (-0.7"), 8.3" VMov (+0.3")
SI: 89.7 mph (-2.0 mph), 9.1" HMov (-0.2"), 3.8" VMov (-0.7")
SL: 80.4 mph (-2.7 mph), 3.2" HMov (+2.1"), 0.6" VMov (-1.9")
CU: 72.2 mph (-1.7 mph), 7.9" HMov (+1.4"), -3.3" VMov (-1.0")
CH: 7.5 delta (-1.5 mph), 8.4" HMov (+0.9"), 4.2" VMov (-0.5")
We already now the deal with Julio. His velocity continues to decline, and he needs to transition into a junk baller. The good news is his breaking pitches have improved, so he should be able to rely on them more heavily to find enough success to fill out the back of the rotation.
The Braves have 3 main SPs from 2017 still going strong in 2018...
Folty
FA: 97.0 mph (+1.2 mph), 4.0" HMov (-0.9"), 10.0" VMov (-0.2")
SI: 97.4 mph (+1.6 mph), 8.9" HMov (+0.3"), 6.9" VMov (-0.3")
SL: 86.5 mph (-0.1 mph), 2.8" HMov (+1.0"), 0.7" VMov (-1.9")
CU: 80.4 mph (-0.1 mph), 2.9" HMov (+1.7"), -2.8" VMov (-1.1")
CH: 8.5 delta (-0.5 mph), 8.5" HMov (+0.3"), 6.4" VMov (-0.3")
We are seeing Folty being a physical freak that defies typical aging curves. Both fastballs have added velocity while losing minimal movement. Both pitches have increased half a grade since 2017. He has added quite a bit of movement to the SL, both away from the batter and sink, making it a solidly average or a bit better. The CU also gained some movement, and now verges on usable. The CH remains largely unchanged, and is still an average pitch. Folty's success is due to his increased K rate, which is is due to the increase in fastball velocity.
Newk
FA: 93.3 mph (-0.9 mph), 4.1" HMov (-2.1"), 9.7" VMov (-1.0")
SL: 80.5 mph (-0.7 mph), 6.7" HMov (+0.4"), -2.4" VMov (-0.8")
CU: 76.7 mph (-2.0 mph), 5.0" HMov (+1.0"), -10.7" VMov (-3.9")
CH: 6.4 delta (-1.5 mph), 6.8" HMov (-2.1"), 5.3" VMov (-1.4")
Newk's velocity is declining across the board, as is typical for pitchers in their mid-20s. As a result, his FA has lost half a grade, but is still easily plus. He has sacrificed some velocity on the CU for added movement, and both his breaking balls are still plus to plus-plus. The CH is still usable. Newk's control is undoubtedly improved, and now it's a race between his improving control and his declining velocity that will determine how successful he ultimately becomes.
Teheran
FA: 90.4 mph (-1.0 mph), 4.1" HMov (-0.7"), 8.3" VMov (+0.3")
SI: 89.7 mph (-2.0 mph), 9.1" HMov (-0.2"), 3.8" VMov (-0.7")
SL: 80.4 mph (-2.7 mph), 3.2" HMov (+2.1"), 0.6" VMov (-1.9")
CU: 72.2 mph (-1.7 mph), 7.9" HMov (+1.4"), -3.3" VMov (-1.0")
CH: 7.5 delta (-1.5 mph), 8.4" HMov (+0.9"), 4.2" VMov (-0.5")
We already now the deal with Julio. His velocity continues to decline, and he needs to transition into a junk baller. The good news is his breaking pitches have improved, so he should be able to rely on them more heavily to find enough success to fill out the back of the rotation.
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