C. Yelich possibly re-upping with brewers 9yr/$215

Just quick, rough, back of the napkin stuff, but I'd put his value in that period around $350 million. So yeah, that's pretty team friendly.
 
A couple of questions will determine who this deal favors (though I'm not sure how 200+ million can't favor a player). Will this buyout his current contract or will it just be added onto his current deal starting in 2022 since that would be a team option year? If it's the latter, it's a very good deal for him. Currently, he'll be 31 by the time he's a FA, so the odds he tops 220 million at 31 years old doesn't seem particularly likely, imo. If it's the former, it's a huge win for the Brew Crew, as it essentially only adds 177 million over 6 years in new money for a top 5 player in baseball.

With the injury last year, Yelich may feel like he should get paid while he can and this is probably the top out range for the Brew Crew.
 
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Yelich would get way more on the open market. Like, wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more. this is super team-friendly. good for him for wanting to stick with the Brew Crew.
 
Allstar34bd said:
Is this not a very friendly extension???? Is Rendon really worth that much more then CY?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28830830/sources-brewers-christian-yelich-215-million-extension
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It is a friendly extension if true.

Rendon is a much more valuable player on average though. Last 3 years Rendon has been a 6.5 WAR player with much more consistency. Yelich has been amazing for the Brewers. But he was less great for the Marlins. Still high quality but a 5 win player.

As far as why, remember that Yelich is under team control for 2 more years with an option, by the time he would hit FA he would be over 30, I also think Yelich is much more likely to fade as he gets older than Rendon.

Consider his top comps from B-Ref who were also CF, McCutchen, Beltran, Kemp, and Wells. Wells is probably the most exteme example as he came crashing down at 28. A Few good years here and there, but he was done playing baseball in the majors by 35. Through 28 Cutch was a perennial Allstar and an MVP candidate. Winning it once and finishing top 5 3 more times. He hit 29 and the wheels came off a bit. His glove took a downturn, his bat took a downturn. Even the year his offense was fine (2017) it was a shade of it's former self. Kemp I wouldn't compare to Yelich because he's a thicc boi. Kemp peaked in 2011, and just kind of got bad. He either didn't hit enough for a corner outfielder or didn't field enough for a CF. Let's move off the negatives to the positive. Beltran. After turning 30 Beltran wasn't an MVP anymore. But he did still get named to an allstar game or 2. From 31-39 (years of this extension) he compiled a 22.6 rWAR. Which isn't bad. And 22.5 fWAR. If Yelich is the same, he would be well worth that extension.

The risk the club is taking is they're thinking he's more Beltran less McCutchen. The risk he's taking is he would get more on the open market, but if he gets hurt or starts to downturn in 2020-2022 his value will plummet as everyone assumes he's another McCutchen or Vernon Wells.
 
Super said:
Yelich would get way more on the open market. Like, wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more. this is super team-friendly. good for him for wanting to stick with the Brew Crew.
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Right now? Absolutely. But he's not a FA for 3 more years though. You think he gets significantly more than that at age 31?
 
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Carp said:
Right now? Absolutely. But he's not a FA for 3 more years though. You think he gets significantly more than that at age 31?
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i think he'd get way more than 6/whatever amount the Brewers will be paying him
 
zitothebrave said:
It is a friendly extension if true.

Rendon is a much more valuable player on average though. Last 3 years Rendon has been a 6.5 WAR player with much more consistency. Yelich has been amazing for the Brewers. But he was less great for the Marlins. Still high quality but a 5 win player.
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?
Yelich is at 6.67 average fWAR the last 3 years and his last two seasons have been higher than anything Rendon has put up. saying Rendon is "much more valuable" is like, objectively not true.
 
Yeah. Team friendly deal. For the 7 extra years I come up with a price of 6-7M per expected WAR. Below market, which has been 8-9M per WAR for free agents in recent years.

I'm projecting he averages 4 WAR per season in those 7 extra years, which would be his age 30-36 seasons.
 
Super said:
i think he'd get way more than 6/whatever amount the Brewers will be paying him
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So are we sure it replaces his current deal and doesn't start in 2020?

Also, you're assuming he remains a 6+ WAR player over the next 3 years. If he falls back down to a 4-5 WAR player (or worse) it seems unlikely he would get much more than 170 million over 6 years.
 
Carp said:
So are we sure it replaces his current deal and doesn't start in 2020?

Also, you're assuming he remains a 6+ WAR player over the next 3 years. If he falls back down to a 4-5 WAR player (or worse) it seems unlikely he would get much more than 170 million over 6 years.
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Yelich would make $12.5 million in 2020 and $14 million in 2021, then a new seven-year extension worth $190 million would kick in, sources told ESPN.
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Is from the linked article
 
Carp said:
So are we sure it replaces his current deal and doesn't start in 2020?

Also, you're assuming he remains a 6+ WAR player over the next 3 years. If he falls back down to a 4-5 WAR player (or worse) it seems unlikely he would get much more than 170 million over 6 years.
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it replaces his current deal, yeah.
it add 7/187 to his deal, which is $26.7M per year. even at 4 fWAR average for those 7 years it's a below-market deal.
i think mlbtraderumors summed it up nicely tho. it's a win for both sides, IMO.
 
Super said:
?
Yelich is at 6.67 average fWAR the last 3 years and his last two seasons have been higher than anything Rendon has put up. saying Rendon is "much more valuable" is like, objectively not true.
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Correct, higher high, lower lows.Which is what I said.
 
zitothebrave said:
Correct, higher high, lower lows.Which is what I said.
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you said “much more valuable on average.” then spoke of Rendon’s last 3 years...a timeframe that Yelich has a higher average fWAR across. not sure how you’re painting yourself as right on that statement. Rendon is definitely not much more valuable than Yelich, “on average” or otherwise.
 
Yeah, the fact that it begins in 2022 and not 2021 does change the calculus a bit. Still pretty friendly, but considering how the FA market has been treating 30 year olds in the last couple or three offseasons, there would probably be more difference between what he could have gotten at 30 and at 29 than is reasonable.
 
Super said:
you said “much more valuable on average.” then spoke of Rendon’s last 3 years...a timeframe that Yelich has a higher average fWAR across. not sure how you’re painting yourself as right on that statement. Rendon is definitely not much more valuable than Yelich, “on average” or otherwise.
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I mean I personally feel that a player who when healthy has been a lock for 6.5 WAR has more value than a player who has ranged from a 4.1 to a 7.8. It's a personal preference. Consider the comparison of Scott Rolen and Vlad Guerrero. Scott Rolen never ascended as high as Guerrero. Rolen was infinitely less sexy. But when he was healthy he was a 5+ WAR player. That comparison is more extreme because Rolen is much better than Rendon, but my point is that there is value to a consistent player to me. If Yelich does it again this year, he'll pass Rendon.
 
zitothebrave said:
I mean I personally feel that a player who when healthy has been a lock for 6.5 WAR has more value than a player who has ranged from a 4.1 to a 7.8. It's a personal preference. Consider the comparison of Scott Rolen and Vlad Guerrero. Scott Rolen never ascended as high as Guerrero. Rolen was infinitely less sexy. But when he was healthy he was a 5+ WAR player. That comparison is more extreme because Rolen is much better than Rendon, but my point is that there is value to a consistent player to me. If Yelich does it again this year, he'll pass Rendon.
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I guess Rolen had less sexy tools and was less flashy, but as far as peak goes: Peak four years of War:
Rolen-9, 7, 6.5, 6.2=28.7
Vlad-7.1,6.7,6.2,5.9=25.9
 
zitothebrave said:
I mean I personally feel that a player who when healthy has been a lock for 6.5 WAR has more value than a player who has ranged from a 4.1 to a 7.8. It's a personal preference. Consider the comparison of Scott Rolen and Vlad Guerrero. Scott Rolen never ascended as high as Guerrero. Rolen was infinitely less sexy. But when he was healthy he was a 5+ WAR player. That comparison is more extreme because Rolen is much better than Rendon, but my point is that there is value to a consistent player to me. If Yelich does it again this year, he'll pass Rendon.
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ok but personal preference isn't what you said. Yelich and Rendon are roughly the same value-wise.
 
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