Cody Martin

[nsacpi]

The young man is starting to get some attention away from these boards. Here is an article from fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/by-editorial-demand-cody-martins-improbable-success/

I've looked at his minor league numbers and a few things strike me as interesting. Last year he put up these strikeout and walk numbers in AAA: against righties 66 Ks and 27 walks, against lefties 76 Ks and 29 walks. To me this is interesting because it suggests he doesn't have to be protected against lefties and would have a decent chance of being successful as a major league starting pitcher.

Throughout his minor league career he has been a fly ball pitcher. The fangraphs article has videos showing that he tends to throw his fastball in the upper part of the strike zone. However, so far in the majors he has a 57% ground ball rate. While it is possible that he will become more of a ground ball pitcher under McDowell's influence, I suspect that his ground ball rate is a small sample statistical fluke. His fastball definitely shows late life and gives the impression of being a rising fastball. His motion is a bit deceptive (especially the late release), which might allow him to get away with pitching in the upper half of the strike zone with a fastball that is below average in velocity. I think whether in fact he can do this after major league hitters have formed an understanding of what kind of pitcher he is will be the big question for him going forward. If he can mix in off-speed stuff that is more in the lower part of the strike zone that might help him live in the upper half with the fastball.

The other key question is whether he can bring the walk rate down. The last two years while pitching in AA and AAA his walk rate has been in the 3-4 per nine inning range. He needs for it to be below 3. The reason is that he will be prone to giving up the home run. With a low walk rate more of those will be solo shots which he can live with. So far his control in the majors has been very good. It remains to be seen if this is a small sample thing, or if he has genuinely improved his control relative to what he was showing the last two seasons in AA and AAA.

One last thought. The major league pitcher he reminds me the most of in terms of stuff and repetoire is Yusmeiro Petit.

 

[nsacpi]

Cody now has 16 major league innings under his belt. Still a very small sample, but a few of his stats have normalized. First, the ground ball rate is now 35%, which is consistent with his minor league career. He has given up two solo home runs. He's always going to be prone to the long ball. The key is keeping the walk rate down so that there aren't base runners on when the ball leaves the park.

So far he is sporting a strikeout rate of 11.6 per nine innings and a walk rate of 2.2. Outstanding numbers for any pitcher, let alone one with a fastball that has averaged 89.5 mph. Those numbers won't be sustained, but he can afford some deterioration in the strikeout and walk rates and still be a very effective pitcher. The key over and unders for me are keeping the walk rate under 3 and the strikeout rate above 9. There is no guarantee he can do that, but the early results are very encouraging.

What else? So far he's been more effective against lefties. As I mentioned above, in the minors he was just as effective against lefties. I'm ok with leaving him in the pen for now, but I'd like to see him given a shot as a starter at some point.

We got lucky 29 other teams passed on him in the Rule 5 draft. I guess the professional evaluators get it wrong now and then.

 

[Dalyn]

His strikeout rate is due to late movement. I do think it'll drop a little, but not much. Unlike in the minors, he is facing smart hitters he can trap. Remember Hudson talking about how he couldn't survive in the minors now because so many are just swinging without a plan? That's worked against Martin some. Like other command pitchers, he'll always have issues with the swingers, but he'll start tearing up the smart ones. Just like we already see him doing.