DOTW 7/3/'14: Team's chances after this current winning streak.

The Tariff King

The Tariff King

Trade War Deadline Winner
Staff member
Topic for the debate:

We're at a 7 game winning streak atm and winners of 9 of 10 and 11 of 14.

Pessimists will say the winning streak isn't much because it's against teams we should be taking care of.

Optimists say we haven't hit our stride yet. Pessimists will say the Nationals haven't hit theirs yet.

We've owned the Nats the last 1.5 years. How do you feel about the rest of the season?
 
I said at the start of the season that this was going to be a tight battle with the Nats until the end. Anyone who thought we were going to run away with the division this year was kidding themselves. The good news is that if we continue our head-to-head success against them we should come out on top.
 
I was a little worried when we were heading towards .500 but I think what has got us back to winning is the pen returning to super human levels. They have 39 innings pitched with a 1.153 ERA going back 14 days which was the start of the Nats series. Kimbrel has the highest ERA at 2.57. The big difference has been the guys setting up Kimbrel. Simmons/Walden/Varvaro have been lights out. Even Avilan was good allowing only 1 run in 5.1 IP. We havent had this many reliable arms in the pen at any point this season with Simmons starting in the minors and Walden injured every time he farts.

It seems like the division race is finally starting with both the Braves and Nats winning at the same time. That hasnt happened in a long time. The nats have won 4 straight and followed that up with 3 losses 3 times this year already so they are just as streaky as we are.
 
I really don't think we're as good as our record. More like a.500 team. Look at the run differential for proof. It was -0 a few days ago.

We only have one starter that you can count on, and only a couple of relievers.

Our CF is terrible, and our 3b and ss have OBP below .300. Our bench sucks, all of it. Our 2b is an untested rookie. The only one of our remaining 7 positional starters producing better than last year (Gattis) is hurt.

I usually trend toward optimism, BTW.
 
In the last 30 days Chris Johnson has hit .345/.368/.434. How can you say he is the problem?

I would say Justin is having a better year than last year in that last year he only showed up for 2 months. He might not be as hot as he was last year but he is more consistent with similar overall results which is better to me. No more months of hitting like BJ Upton mixed in with 1 month of Babe Ruth.

All benches suck, thats why they are bench players. Tell me what bench players the Nats have that are better than ours.

La Stella may be "untested" but he has far exceeded expectations in terms of his perceive weakness which was defense. He might not set the world on fire but he is a massive upgrade over Struggla. Remember we ran away with the division last year with two full time hitters starters under .200.

Run differential is not the end all be all stat. We tend not to blow out teams often and play a lot of close games. Teams with elite bullpens are going to outperform run differential and pythogrean record.
 
stpeteirish said:
I really don't think we're as good as our record. More like a.500 team. Look at the run differential for proof. It was -0 a few days ago.

We only have one starter that you can count on, and only a couple of relievers.

Our CF is terrible, and our 3b and ss have OBP below .300. Our bench sucks, all of it. Our 2b is an untested rookie. The only one of our remaining 7 positional starters producing better than last year (Gattis) is hurt.

I usually trend toward optimism, BTW.
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Run differental is fair.

SP is a little question, i disagree with the pen, lately it's been really good.

Simmons, Walden, Kimbrel, Varvaro, and Avilan is a solid Top-5, and can throw in Carp as well.

CJ has hit over 280, in a position thats terrible league-wide, Atl doesnt need Simmons to hit.

Truth be told, all benches suck so you're comparing apples to oranges there.
 
Run differential is a legit concern but can be overcome with a legit pen which the Braves have. They have the 6th best ERA in baseball and 2nd best FIP. I'm sure it's been and going to be even better with Walden returning and Simmons getting called up.
 
yes the pen has been great lately (so has our record) but can it really be counted on? Simmons looks legit, but will hold up under the stress of the next three months?

Are last year's Avilan and Carpenter really back? The past few days say yes but the rest of the season says no. Walden will get hurt again; that's his track record anyway.

As far as benches go, isn't Denard Span a bench player for the Nats? Most good teams (Cards, Giants) have utility infielders better than Pena and everybody has a 4th OF better than Schafer and a #2 catcher better than Laird. Doumit is OK for what he is.

Upon further review Justin is having a better year than last year, as is BJ and Freddie is pretty close. But CJ is below average in just about everything and Simmons needs to hit more for us to really be a challenger.

Time will tell but I just don't see us as being as good as last year and we'll need to be to win the division IMO.
 
The team has got to hit. I think the pitching and defense will keep the Braves in contention the whole season. I don't know if we're going to end up with the divisional title; I'd say we have a 45-50 percent chance of winning it.
 
stpeteirish said:
yes the pen has been great lately (so has our record) but can it really be counted on? Simmons looks legit, but will hold up under the stress of the next three months?

Are last year's Avilan and Carpenter really back? The past few days say yes but the rest of the season says no. Walden will get hurt again; that's his track record anyway.

As far as benches go, isn't Denard Span a bench player for the Nats? Most good teams (Cards, Giants) have utility infielders better than Pena and everybody has a 4th OF better than Schafer and a #2 catcher better than Laird. Doumit is OK for what he is.

Upon further review Justin is having a better year than last year, as is BJ and Freddie is pretty close. But CJ is below average in just about everything and Simmons needs to hit more for us to really be a challenger.

Time will tell but I just don't see us as being as good as last year and we'll need to be to win the division IMO.
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Provdied health, sure.

Span starts, Espinosa is the Nats best bench player.

Last year, no, whose to say they have to be?
 
The division is finally sorting itself out. I think it's going to a fun race from here on out. Both teams are clicking at the same time. My biggest concern is the Gattis back injury thing. Without him this offense could be in trouble.
 
I'm a little more optimistic. But I need to see this level of play sustained over a longer period of time. We need the bullpen to stay strong, and we need to start hitting more. With Gattis out for a while, Heyward really needs to elevate himself.
 
I share the concerns about Gattis's effectiveness even after he returns. I think it would be tough to imagine him being 100% after 15 days, and it's all too easy to imagine him re-injuring it.

I think that JHey and CJ will be better in the second half than they were in the first.

JT may regress a little, and will need to have his innings dialed back. Wood and hopefully Minor will pick up the slack. By August we'll be really missing Gavin Floyd, IMO.

Our defense and BP have been (post-Shae Simmons) pleasant surprises. I think it will be a dogfight with the Nats down the stretch, and that winning the division is a real possibility, but not a foregone conclusion. I still think our best ball is ahead of us, regardless of injuries.
 
My biggest concern is the loss of Gattis, it hasn't hurt yet but that reality is likely to come. The winning streak is nice but let's not pretend that we haven't seen some bad pitching and a lot of bad defense against us lately. The bad defense against us has gifted us at least a few wins during this streak. I also noted reviewing the last game vs the Mets that their shortstop had his back to the infield when the pitcher was throwing the first pitch to BJ. BJ hit it for a single but Tejada wasn't looking in time to even have a shot at fielding it (see the Mets broadcast as they broke it down while ours doesn't note it). I bring this up to show an example that I have seen regularly against us lately, neither the Phillies nor the Mets have had their heads in the game. Hopefully we see more of the same tonight from the D'Backs. Further, I will also note that the Nats had it just as easy vs the Rockies. The Rockies pitching in that series was as terrible as it gets. I looked at the match-ups to start it and thought "Uh oh, that's a Nats sweep most likely." Thankfully the match-up our series vs the Mets was about as friendly. Plus the Mets so called third baseman Campbell replacing Wright makes CJ look decent he's so bad there. He needs to stick to first base or left field. The kid can hit but watching him at third was like watching an instant replay of Howard at first kicking the ball around this past weekend every chance he got, lol.

That said, if we can keep winning and build a cushion going into the All-Star break. Then I'd like our chances a lot better if Gattis returns and is his old self again later this month. But I have my doubts given what I've read about the healing time for his injury, etc. Whatever the case the pitching is going to need to be strong like it has lately and others are going to have to make up for the loss of Gattis on offense.

PS I also agree that keeping Walden healthy will be a key too. He has been great lately and we need that to continue.
 
I think we are set up to win about 90 games, good enough for a WC spot and maybe the division title.

We have a couple key players who have it in them to contribute significantly more in the second half--Heyward and Minor. They haven't had bad first halves, but they can do more. We'll get more out of second base during the second half now that La Stella is there. The bullpen looks like it has righted itself and is primed for a very good second half. I suspect Wren will pick up a second lefty for the pen, which will make it even stronger.

There are some downside risks to worry about. Gattis' injury is an obvious one. Harang to me always looks like he is skating on thin ice. The magic pixie dust could wear out any time. We have some internal options to deal with those downside risks. Not too many teams have a catching prospect like Bethancourt in AAA. In the case of Harang, I think it might be smart once we pick up the second lefty to send Hale down to AAA and work out of the rotation there. There is a chance he could be a more effective fifth starter than Harang later this year.

On balance the upside potential outweighs the downside risks for this team. Barring additional injuries to significant players, I think we'll be stronger in the second half.
 
I'm pretty confident in this team, but I am one of the optimists. This winning streak has been well needed, but it's something we really haven't seen this year and has been surprising. This team has it in them to make a lot of these kind of stretches.

The biggest thing this season is the addition of La Stella's bat in a lineup that needs it now more than ever and the addition of Shae Simmons. In my opinion, these two make this team a lot more balanced. I also think the Braves have been very unlucky for a lot of the year but they've also just played like complete crap at times.

There's two things I think that need an upgrade to get this team where they can and should be: One more bullpen arm (preferably a lefty) and another bench bat. The fact of the matter is that besides Doumit, our bench sucks.

Prediction time! I think the team will continue to play solid on this little stretch. I could see us taking 2 of 3 from the diamondbacks. I'd say 90-92 wins are that far off for team, especially if we make a few much needed moves.
 
VirginiaBrave said:
Division comes down to head to head. Just hope Rendon's homer didn't flip mommentum.
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We won that game. I don't see how that could have flipped momentum. The Nats aren't playing like little bitches anymore and we still split with them at their place.
 
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