Election projection

cajunrevenge

cajunrevenge

Well-known member
Alright people, 10 days till election with about a third of the vote already cast. Lets start with the predictions. I am going to list the states I think each one will win followed by the % I am confident in that result for each state and their number of electoral college votes.



Trump - 210 electoral votes - 60-65 million votes total
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Alabama 100% 9
Arkansas 100% 6
Idaho 100% 4
Montana 100% 3
Wyoming 100% 3
North Dakota 100% 3
South Dakota 100% 3
Nebraska 100% 5
Kansas 100% 6
Missouri 100% 10
Kentucky 100% 8
Tennessee 100% 11
Alaska 100% 3
Louisiana 100% 8
Mississippi 100% 6
Oklahoma 100% 7
West Virginia 100% 5
Indiana 100% 11
South Carolina 88% 9
Georgia 75% 16
Ohio 65% 18
Iowa 60% 6
Florida 52.5% 29
North Carolina 51% 19



Biden - 328 electoral votes - 69-75 million votes
------------------------
Washington 100% 12
Oregon 100% 7
California 100% 55
New York 100% 29
Maine 100% 11
Rhode Island 100% 4
Connecticut 100% 7
New Jersey 100% 14
Vermont 100% 3
Delaware 100% 3
Maryland 100% 10
DC 100% 3
Illinois 100% 20
Hawaii 100% 4
New Mexico 100% 5
Virginia 100% 13
Massachusetts 100% 11
Colorado 99% 9
Nevada 98% 6
Minnesota 95% 10
Michigan 90% 16
New Hampshire 90% 4
Wisconsin 80% 10
Pennsylvania 62.5% 20
Arizona 55% 11
Texas 52% 38




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Hopefully we can leave the partisan bickering to other threads. If you dont like my predictions post your own. I am not bothering with the districts whose electoral vote is different than the state. They are too insignificant to put much thought into. Yes I am aware some of my predictions dont jive with the polls. There are reasons for it that I wont go into unless someone really wants to know. My top projection for vote total comes out to 140 million total votes. I know its projected for around 155 million votes. I am comfortable with that gap.
 
Looks pretty good, but I would switch Texas and PA to Trump, and I would switch NC to Biden.
 
I’ll go with 538’s latest projections

Biden wins the popular vote by 8 points and gets to about 340-350 in the electoral college
 
I think this is more fun to do with a couple upset specials. Texas has been polling competitively but would definitely count as an upset special if it went blue.

I'm gonna go out on a longer limb and call South Carolina as my upset special.

Among states projected to go blue, Nevada in my opinion is the one most likely to buck expectations. That would be my upset special in the other direction.
 
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My only wish in what is going to be a terrible night for me no matter who wins is Jorgensen covers the Biden-Trump spread in a couple of swing states. Play spoiler and ruffle feathers.
 
nsacpi said:
I think this is more fun to do with a couple upset specials. Texas has been polling competitively but would definitely count as an upset special if it went blue.

I'm gonna go out on a longer limb and call South Carolina as my upset special.

Among states projected to go blue, Nevada in my opinion is the one most likely to buck expectations. That would be my upset special in the other direction.
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A lot of people in Nevada hate Trump. Don't see that one happening.
 
nsacpi said:
I think this is more fun to do with a couple upset specials. Texas has been polling competitively but would definitely count as an upset special if it went blue.

I'm gonna go out on a longer limb and call South Carolina as my upset special.

Among states projected to go blue, Nevada in my opinion is the one most likely to buck expectations. That would be my upset special in the other direction.
Click to expand...

I have not seen one Biden yard sign/sticker in South Carolina. It won’t flip
 
Voted yesterday. Quick question for anyone who might know: is there an actual policy on the order you list candidates on a ballot? I've voted in four different states in my lifetime, and WV is the only one I can remember who, without fail, always lists the Republican first unless a Democrat is running unopposed.
 
Another fun fact, I had to push my vote 4 times before it registered, and that only happened for the presidential portion. Out of curiosity, I unchecked my choice and tried the other and it registered with 1 push. Good thing it is beautiful here.
 
I dont think the yard sign test is a good indicator of anything but enthusiasm. He won the primary there by a lot so there is strong support for him there. If it's a traditionally red state I moved the needle slightly towards Trump for reasons that would probably lead to an argument we could discuss in other threads. Like Georgia I think it will be somewhat close but I upgraded to 75% Trump. Florida and Texas are the two I think I am most likely to be wrong on. I could very easily see both being the opposite of what I put. Trump put everything he has on Florida. Kind of feels weird to have Texas blue and not Florida. Florida is turning into a solid red state. Texas with our humongous population I think gives it more potential to flip. Reports of high voter turnout especially among the youths is why I called it blue. North Carolina I will believe it when I see it. I dont really buy into the secret Trump vote this time around. I think remaining undecideds may break for trump 60/40 or better for Trump because if you are undecided at this point Trump clearly isnt a big turnoff for them. Trump is probably the most polarizing political figure to be a serious candidate in a modern Presedential race so many of the traditional thought in terms of elections goes right out the window.




Florida, Texas, PA, and a few others should be very close races.
 
Dalyn said:
Voted yesterday. Quick question for anyone who might know: is there an actual policy on the order you list candidates on a ballot? I've voted in four different states in my lifetime, and WV is the only one I can remember who, without fail, always lists the Republican first unless a Democrat is running unopposed.
Click to expand...

Is it generally who the incumbent is first?
 
The Chosen One said:
Is it generally who the incumbent is first?
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It is not. Even Democratic incumbents are listed second.

I thought I might be imagining things or remembering them wrong, but -

"A federal judge has ruled the way candidates are placed on the ballot in West Virginia is unconstitutional.

U.S. District Judge Robert Chambers issued an injunction Monday, saying West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner must establish a new way to determine the order that candidates appear on ballots before the 2020 general election on Nov. 3."
 
Ok people, going to use this thread to post some data relevant to the races. Starting with Arizona. The stats are based on party registration not their actual vote. Neither side will get 100% of their party in any state but its a strong indicator of who people voted for.


2016
-------------------
2,052,810 total votes
30.41% Democrat
34.54% Republican
Trump won with 49.5% 1,021,154 votes
Hillary lost with 45.4% 936,250 votes


2020
----------------------
2.3 million votes.
38.2% Democrat with 74.1% of ballots returned 879,178
36.3% Republican with 69.1% of ballots returned 836,123
25.5% Independent - with 68.1% of ballots returned. 587,455
3,383,000 ballots were requested in total
Democrats have 32.2% of registered voters
Republicans have 35.2% of registered voters
4,281,152 registered voters in the state so about 2 million registered voters left to potentially vote.


This looks like it will heavily lean on who Independents break for. Stein and Johnson got 5.1% of the vote. I dont think third party gets many votes this time around. Trump won with by 3.9% with a 4.14% advantage in registered voters in 2016. Trump and Hillary both got about 88% of their registered party votes with 7% voting for the opposite party. I will guess Biden picks up 5 points just among Democrats to get up to 93-94% and I will give Trump a smaller boost to get to 90% of Republicans. I think this is the state Trump is most vulnerable to not winning a high percent a high percentage of Republicans because of his feud with McCain. Trump won independents 47% to 44% with other getting 9% in 2016. Whoever wins independents probably wins AZ and it will be by less than 50k votes. I'll stay with my prediction of a Biden win based on the McCain factor.
 
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https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html



Rather than write out the data there is a link to much of it. I'll go into more detail tomorrow night. Democrats have 3-1 advantage in registered voters so far voting. 40% of those early voters are 66 or older. Looking like a blowout for Biden imo. This was uber close in 2016. Early prediction Biden by 10 points and I will up my percent chance Biden wins it to 98%.
 
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Guess anyone who hasn’t voted yet should just not bother then? I mean the election is all but over already.
 
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