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Craig Kimbrel is one of the best closers in baseball, and his value might never be higher.
The 2013 Atlanta Braves won 96 games, winning the NL East by a comfortable margin, and one of the reasons they flirted with the century mark was their 25-year-old closer, Craig Kimbrel.
Since coming up during the 2010 season, Kimbrel has been the pitcher that hitters have least desired to face, striking out an otherworldly 15.1 batters per 9 innings. Kimbrel's career line -- 15-7 with a 1.39 ERA, with 381 strikeouts in 227 1/3 innings -- looks like what a starting pitcher would put up in the best season we've ever seen.
By any measure, from traditional statistics to sabermetric statistics to simply watching Kimbrel humiliate a batter to end the game, this man is an amazing pitcher.
This is also why Kimbrel should be wearing another uniform when baseball resumes next spring.
The value of a closer
No, Craig Kimbrel is not an overrated pitcher. He's not headed for a cliff, and there's no scary peripheral stat lurking in the shadows suggesting that batters are going to solve the Kimbrel riddle next year.
It's just that when it comes down to it, the best baseball decisions are always ones that value tomorrow more than yesterday. Yesterday is an expensive prospect; the Phillies have a team built to compete in 2007, and the 2013 Yankees found themselves fatally burdened by decisions that valued the past more than the future.
While it's not as pronounced an effect in baseball as it was 10 or 15 years ago, the value of a closer still tends to be overrated. Closers throw too few innings and most managers in baseball will use a closer mainly in save situations, not necessarily the most crucial situations in the game (there is a difference).
It's not a coincidence that many successful small-market teams, such as Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh the last two years, have put together their excellent bullpens on a tight budget. When you don't have unlimited resources, a closer is the least efficient place to spend your dough.
Despite all the mystique involving closers that live to eat fire and terrorize opponents with ferocious facial hair, closers are built, not born. The Pirates didn't find Jason Grilli or Joel Hanrahan by seeking out which MLB pitchers were descended from ancient Norse berserkers, they simply took relievers that were good at getting batters out in the 8th inning and let them get batters out in the 9th inning instead.
The longevity issue
Historically speaking, the shelf life of closers is relatively short. Closers that are successful for more than a decade are actually quite rare. What made Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman so special wasn't just their ability, but also their longevity. And neither were even anointed closers until they were within shouting distance of age 30, at 27 and 26 respectively.
Looking at the top young closers through age 25 in baseball history, you can see just how high the fail rate is. Francisco Rodriguez is no longer the electric pitcher he once was. Gregg Olson, Chad Cordero, and Joakim Soria all had their careers severely derailed due to injury.Ugueth Urbina was done as a full-time closer at 30, even before getting into legal trouble.Byung-Hyun Kim had 70 saves before he turned 24 ... and 16 the rest of his career.
On the flip side, 25 pitchers have passed the 300-save mark. Their average save totals through age 25? That would be 24, and that's with Rodriguez generating 25 percent of the total.
Kimbrel's value
Kimbrel may be a terrific closer over the next decade, but given how dizzying his highs have been, the odds strongly favor the Braves having already received the best he has to give. A Kimbrelian level of awesomeness is quite difficult to maintain, after all, and the Braves are not a team with unlimited resources. Kimbrel has 9 WAR over the last three seasons. Looking at all pitchers within a win of that over that time frame, every pitcher would either set off a bidding war (Madison Bumgarner and Mat Latos) or is already very handsomely paid (Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, and Jon Lester).
mlb_g_jheyts_288.jpg
Scott Cunningham/Getty ImagesThe Braves will soon need to extend the contract of Jason Heyward and other young contributors.
Even with fewer teams shelling out obscene amounts of cash for closers, Kimbrel's going to get more expensive very quickly and the Braves, while not a small market team, are not known for being aggressive spenders. After signingJonny Venters to a 1-year, $1.625 million contract, the Braves have 13 more players eligible for arbitration this winter to sign.
Even assuming a revenue boost from a new stadium in Cobb County, the Braves still need to have room to explore long-term contracts with Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Kris Medlen, all free agents in two years, with Freddie Freeman scheduled to hit free agency a year after that.
How much can they get?
One of the Braves' strengths is bullpen depth, so even if losing Kimbrel costs the team an excellent reliever, the possible return from a trade is worth the risk. Atlanta's bullpen, outside of Kimbrel, combined for a 2.67 ERA in 2013, so we're not talking about a pen that's starving for quality. A Kimbrel trade wouldn't involve someone on the Byron Buxton level, unless Twins general manager Terry Ryan hangs out with Rob Ford in the offseason, but in a world in which the Phillies are willing to offer Edward Mujica a three-year deal, and a 39-year-old Joe Nathan is likely to clear $10 million, three years of Kimbrel at arbitration prices is worth a lot to a big-spending team.
The Pirates got a useful reliever in Mark Melancon and an interesting prospect in Stolmy Pimentel for a single year of Hanrahan (and from a well-run team), so a Kimbrel trade could involve some serious prospect value. The Diamondbacks can't compete with the Dodgers in the free agent market, so they might be talked out of Chris Owings, who would be an immediate upgrade on Dan Uggla and would give the team time to evaluate Tommy La Stella in AAA.
The Tigers were extremely reluctant to play Nick Castellanos in the majors and saw first-hand what a third-rate bullpen could do to their World Series chances, so the Braves could at least ask; Chris Johnson's not exactly a great defensive 3B either, after all.
For a pitcher of Kimbrel's talent, there's no shortage of possible configurations or packages that could come to fruition and the Braves, not trading Kimbrel from a position of desperation, don't have to do anything if the price isn't right.
The bottom line
Trading a great player is always an excruciating decision, but anybody can make an easy one. It's those hard decisions that separate the teams with long-term success from the also-rans. By at least exploring a Craig Kimbrel trade, the Braves have an opportunity to help their franchise win today -- and tomorrow.
And if they don't like the offers, they'll merely have to settle with having the best closer in baseball.
The 2013 Atlanta Braves won 96 games, winning the NL East by a comfortable margin, and one of the reasons they flirted with the century mark was their 25-year-old closer, Craig Kimbrel.
Since coming up during the 2010 season, Kimbrel has been the pitcher that hitters have least desired to face, striking out an otherworldly 15.1 batters per 9 innings. Kimbrel's career line -- 15-7 with a 1.39 ERA, with 381 strikeouts in 227 1/3 innings -- looks like what a starting pitcher would put up in the best season we've ever seen.
By any measure, from traditional statistics to sabermetric statistics to simply watching Kimbrel humiliate a batter to end the game, this man is an amazing pitcher.
This is also why Kimbrel should be wearing another uniform when baseball resumes next spring.
The value of a closer
No, Craig Kimbrel is not an overrated pitcher. He's not headed for a cliff, and there's no scary peripheral stat lurking in the shadows suggesting that batters are going to solve the Kimbrel riddle next year.
It's just that when it comes down to it, the best baseball decisions are always ones that value tomorrow more than yesterday. Yesterday is an expensive prospect; the Phillies have a team built to compete in 2007, and the 2013 Yankees found themselves fatally burdened by decisions that valued the past more than the future.
While it's not as pronounced an effect in baseball as it was 10 or 15 years ago, the value of a closer still tends to be overrated. Closers throw too few innings and most managers in baseball will use a closer mainly in save situations, not necessarily the most crucial situations in the game (there is a difference).
It's not a coincidence that many successful small-market teams, such as Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh the last two years, have put together their excellent bullpens on a tight budget. When you don't have unlimited resources, a closer is the least efficient place to spend your dough.
Despite all the mystique involving closers that live to eat fire and terrorize opponents with ferocious facial hair, closers are built, not born. The Pirates didn't find Jason Grilli or Joel Hanrahan by seeking out which MLB pitchers were descended from ancient Norse berserkers, they simply took relievers that were good at getting batters out in the 8th inning and let them get batters out in the 9th inning instead.
The longevity issue
Historically speaking, the shelf life of closers is relatively short. Closers that are successful for more than a decade are actually quite rare. What made Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman so special wasn't just their ability, but also their longevity. And neither were even anointed closers until they were within shouting distance of age 30, at 27 and 26 respectively.
Looking at the top young closers through age 25 in baseball history, you can see just how high the fail rate is. Francisco Rodriguez is no longer the electric pitcher he once was. Gregg Olson, Chad Cordero, and Joakim Soria all had their careers severely derailed due to injury.Ugueth Urbina was done as a full-time closer at 30, even before getting into legal trouble.Byung-Hyun Kim had 70 saves before he turned 24 ... and 16 the rest of his career.
On the flip side, 25 pitchers have passed the 300-save mark. Their average save totals through age 25? That would be 24, and that's with Rodriguez generating 25 percent of the total.
Kimbrel's value
Kimbrel may be a terrific closer over the next decade, but given how dizzying his highs have been, the odds strongly favor the Braves having already received the best he has to give. A Kimbrelian level of awesomeness is quite difficult to maintain, after all, and the Braves are not a team with unlimited resources. Kimbrel has 9 WAR over the last three seasons. Looking at all pitchers within a win of that over that time frame, every pitcher would either set off a bidding war (Madison Bumgarner and Mat Latos) or is already very handsomely paid (Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, and Jon Lester).
mlb_g_jheyts_288.jpg
Scott Cunningham/Getty ImagesThe Braves will soon need to extend the contract of Jason Heyward and other young contributors.
Even with fewer teams shelling out obscene amounts of cash for closers, Kimbrel's going to get more expensive very quickly and the Braves, while not a small market team, are not known for being aggressive spenders. After signingJonny Venters to a 1-year, $1.625 million contract, the Braves have 13 more players eligible for arbitration this winter to sign.
Even assuming a revenue boost from a new stadium in Cobb County, the Braves still need to have room to explore long-term contracts with Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Kris Medlen, all free agents in two years, with Freddie Freeman scheduled to hit free agency a year after that.
How much can they get?
One of the Braves' strengths is bullpen depth, so even if losing Kimbrel costs the team an excellent reliever, the possible return from a trade is worth the risk. Atlanta's bullpen, outside of Kimbrel, combined for a 2.67 ERA in 2013, so we're not talking about a pen that's starving for quality. A Kimbrel trade wouldn't involve someone on the Byron Buxton level, unless Twins general manager Terry Ryan hangs out with Rob Ford in the offseason, but in a world in which the Phillies are willing to offer Edward Mujica a three-year deal, and a 39-year-old Joe Nathan is likely to clear $10 million, three years of Kimbrel at arbitration prices is worth a lot to a big-spending team.
The Pirates got a useful reliever in Mark Melancon and an interesting prospect in Stolmy Pimentel for a single year of Hanrahan (and from a well-run team), so a Kimbrel trade could involve some serious prospect value. The Diamondbacks can't compete with the Dodgers in the free agent market, so they might be talked out of Chris Owings, who would be an immediate upgrade on Dan Uggla and would give the team time to evaluate Tommy La Stella in AAA.
The Tigers were extremely reluctant to play Nick Castellanos in the majors and saw first-hand what a third-rate bullpen could do to their World Series chances, so the Braves could at least ask; Chris Johnson's not exactly a great defensive 3B either, after all.
For a pitcher of Kimbrel's talent, there's no shortage of possible configurations or packages that could come to fruition and the Braves, not trading Kimbrel from a position of desperation, don't have to do anything if the price isn't right.
The bottom line
Trading a great player is always an excruciating decision, but anybody can make an easy one. It's those hard decisions that separate the teams with long-term success from the also-rans. By at least exploring a Craig Kimbrel trade, the Braves have an opportunity to help their franchise win today -- and tomorrow.
And if they don't like the offers, they'll merely have to settle with having the best closer in baseball.
