FA Pitchers

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nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Let's talk about FA pitchers the Bravos might pursue. I think we have 25-30M to play with this off-season. The amount could grow if we made certain moves--trading Maybin for example.

I expect us to spend about half of that amount on a catcher and two or three bench/bullpen signings.

It is a buyer's market for FA starting pitchers and it is in that category that I expect us to make a major acquisition. For $12-18/year we can pick up a pitcher with expected production of about 2-3 WAR.

At the high end of that range perhaps above it you have Jordan Zimmerman. I'd be interested in him at 18M/year.

There are some attractive options that would cost a bit less than Zimmerman: Samardzija, Latos, Lackey, Kazmir. (Group 1)

A bit less attractive but within the projected 2-3 WAR: Buehrle, Chen, Iwakuma, Leake, Gallardo. (Group 2)

Below that range, but possibly worth kicking the tires on at a bargain price: Kennedy, Estrada, Lohse, Anderson. (Group 3).

I've long argued against signing pitchers to long-term deals. My opposition has somewhat softened because I think with the glut of FA starting pitchers it will be a buyers market and we can get a bargain this off-season. I still think it is important to limit the length of the contract. And I would insist on an option year to give us some upside. Ideally, 3 years plus an option year with most of these guys. And less with the older guys like Lackey and Buehrle.

My preference would be to get someone in Group 1 or even Zimmerman. I like Leake the most of the guys in Group 2. I think our being in the midst of a rebuilding period will make it more difficult to attract some of these candidates. The FO will have to do some sifting and identify those willing to consider a team in our situation. Above all I hope they are patient and go for value rather than a particular pitcher.
 
I think we get at least 1 vet pitcher, maybe 2. I expect it to be one we target and one that slips through the cracks. I think we'll be looking at guys who will sign for 2-3 years, so I think they'll be older.

Hart keeps signing guys over 30 and the Braves get older and older (in my prediction).

I think there will be a player or two in the situation Santana was a couple of years ago. With the glut of pitching options someone will get draft pick comp tied to them and not find a home. We'll be protected from that issue and maybe be able to get a 2 year deal with a team option for a third.
 
I'm begging to go after Greinke or Price, but I think Zimmerman will be our guy. I just feel like it's going to happen. I can see this team signing a vet guy like Zimmerman, while also adding a catcher, a couple bench guys and bullpen guys. I do think we have some minor league guys in the BP sooner than later.
 
I don't see us landing a stud like a price Grenkie or Zimmerman. One that intrigues me though is gallardo. He has been a stud in the past. Seems to be a good fit And I believe we have looked at him in the past.

Maybe give him a 4 yr @ 13 mil a year with an option and or incentives
 
It's going to be Price at 7 years $190M

Maybin will be moved as will a number of others to continue to stockpile for the rebuild.
 
I think they will shop in the upscale section of the store, but I don't know if they will buy anything there. I think an anchor like Price would be a great get.
 
I think the OF will remain as is, and the Braves will either trade for a young catcher (like Susac) or give the CB/AJ duo another chance.

I think it's a foregone conclusion they will sign at least 1 FA pitcher, but I seriously doubt they go over 4 years for any of them. That rules out Zimmerman.

No thanks on Samahaha. The Braves already have enough guys in the rotation that can't get results with their "good stuff".

Latos might be an excellent buy low option since he is coming off some injuries the last 2 years.

Lackey might be OK, but would have to be on a 2 year deal max since he is older.

Kazmir would be nice, but I imagine he is going to be the most expensive non-Ace this offseason, and out of the Braves price range.

Leake is also my favorite from the next tier down. Anderson is my favorite from the tier below that.

As long as they wait for the dust to settle, the Braves should be able to get a SP or 2 at a bargain rate.
 
I like Zimmerman and Leake if they become the forgotten arms with the focus being on the other bigger names. I also think we target some buy low options like Latos, Bud Norris, and Brett Anderson. Regardless I think we primarily focus on value.
 
The problem is that since we haven't been able to develop an ace from our farm system, and none of the pieces we traded for seems to be developing into an ace, we're not going to have one for years to come. If you look at all of the playoff teams across the NL they all have at least one. It becomes increasingly important when discussing short series and wildcard games.

Not saying I'm in favor of signing Price/Greinke, but this is our dilemma.
 
NYCBrave said:
The problem is that since we haven't been able to develop an ace from our farm system, and none of the pieces we traded for seems to be developing into an ace, we're not going to have one for years to come. If you look at all of the playoff teams across the NL they all have at least one. It becomes increasingly important when discussing short series and wildcard games.

Not saying I'm in favor of signing Price/Greinke, but this is our dilemma.
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What's telling you Shelby can't develop into an ace?
What teams that win championships devote a huge % of their payroll to one player, especially a pitcher?
 
NYCBrave said:
The problem is that since we haven't been able to develop an ace from our farm system, and none of the pieces we traded for seems to be developing into an ace, we're not going to have one for years to come. If you look at all of the playoff teams across the NL they all have at least one. It becomes increasingly important when discussing short series and wildcard games.

Not saying I'm in favor of signing Price/Greinke, but this is our dilemma.
Click to expand...

Arrieta wasn't an ace two years ago. Cole was in the minors two years ago. Same with Carlos Martinez.

Ace status fluctuates from year to year.
 
Aces aren't Aces for very long, which is precisely why you don't attempt to buy them on the FA market. By the time you pay bigs bucks for them they are ready to break down.

That's part of the reason I think Latos might be an excellent buy low option. He is only 27 now, may still be improving, and has already posted several 3-4 WAR seasons.
 
Playoff teams with aces

Dodgers: Kershaw and Greinke

Toronto: Price

Chicago: Lester

St Louis: Wainwright and a few that are on the fence

Pittsburg: Cole

Texas: Hamels

Nationals: Scherzer, Strausburg, Zimmerman

Mets: DeGrom and Harvey

SF: Bumgarner

So most playoff teams do have a legit ace. I don't wanna pay a veteran 15 a year for 2 years bc it's wasted money if we're not contending. Put 5 more a year with it and get a better product. Shelby is awesome but I'd put him at 2 and sign a legit ace like Price and Greinke. Especially with nothing coming in the next several years that resembles one. If the FO wants to be legit WS contenders in the next few years this is the year to buy an ace with so many available.
 
Enscheff said:
Every offseason a few naive folks hold out hope for a FA signing that has 0% chance of happening.
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We will see.

If by naïve you mean the Braves bringing back Heyward and/or Upton, then I agree. If you mean the Braves aren't going to sign a TOR anchor for the rotation, I don't agree. Virtually every move made signals that they are gearing up to go big on a pitcher IMO.
 
Hudson2 said:
Playoff teams with aces
Dodgers: Kershaw and Greinke
Toronto: Price
Chicago: Lester
St Louis: Wainwright and a few that are on the fence
Pittsburg: Cole
Texas: Hamels
Nationals: Scherzer, Strausburg, Zimmerman
Mets: DeGrom and Harvey
SF: Bumgarner
Click to expand...

Not sure how Stras is an ace.
I still maintain that true aces are horses that throw a lot of innings as well as put up great numbers. Strasburg has only ever done one of those things.
 
Enscheff said:
Aces aren't Aces for very long, which is precisely why you don't attempt to buy them on the FA market. By the time you pay bigs bucks for them they are ready to break down.

That's part of the reason I think Latos might be an excellent buy low option. He is only 27 now, may still be improving, and has already posted several 3-4 WAR seasons.
Click to expand...

Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and many others.

I don't mind Latos. But, I think everyone assumes that since the Braves haven't spent big on FA pitchers in the recent past that they won't. This discounts the fact that they haven't had the money to play in that market. They do now.

As for the argument that you don't want to tie up too much of your payroll in one player, I think they are forgetting that the Braves are spending the better part of two years rebuilding mainly by bringing in young controllable cheap talent.

Oh, and many of those who make the percentage of payroll argument turn right around and advocate signing Heyward. Go figure.
 
Dont see us signing an ace.

But if there is ever a time to make a push for one, it's now.

If they wanted, they could sign, two #2-3 types though.

Strasburg is the best FA SP next winter if he hits FA.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and many others.

I don't mind Latos. But, I think everyone assumes that since the Braves haven't spent big on FA pitchers in the recent past that they won't. This discounts the fact that they haven't had the money to play in that market. They do now.

As for the argument that you don't want to tie up too much of your payroll in one player, I think they are forgetting that the Braves are spending the better part of two years rebuilding mainly by bringing in young controllable cheap talent.

Oh, and many of those who make the percentage of payroll argument turn right around and advocate signing Heyward. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Did you really just rattle off 5 first ballot HOFers as your argument?

For every Ace like Maddux, there are 10 guys like Lincecum who was an Ace for a few years...and then suddenly wasn't.

I suppose you can continue to assert the Braves will be in the running for Price, and I'm sure you will vanish the moment it becomes clear they aren't (since it isn't already clear now, apparently). However, I think it's a fairly safe bet the Braves aren't going to suddenly hand out a $200M contract after never handing out a FA contract that even approached $100M yet.

Someone like Gordon for $100M is infinitely more likely than the Braves giving out $200M, and even a contract half the size of what Price will command is an extreme longshot. Hell, Freeman "only" got $135M, and that was buying the prime years of a guy the organization knows very well.
 
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