Fangraphs 2018 Steamer Projections

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG already has already released the 2018 projections based on their estimated playing time for each player: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc

Braves roster:

1 Flowers 1.5
2 Freeman 3.8
3 Albies 1.6
4 Camargo 0.4
5 Swanson 1.1
6 Kemp 0
7 Inciarte 2.1
8 Markakis 0.2

9 Gohara 2.7
10 Newcomb 2
11 Folty 1.6
12 Teheran 1.5
13 Fried 1.4

14 Suzuki 0.7
15 Jace 0.3
16 Ruiz 0.3
17 MAdams 0.2
18 Garcia 0

19 Viz 0.9
20 JJ 0.7
21 Freeman 0.3
22 Winkler 0.2
23 JoRam 0.2
24 Brothers 0.1
25 Hursh 0

26 Wisler 0.7
27 Blair 0.2
28 Sims 0.1

Total: 24.8 = ~73 wins

Add ~2 wins from Flowers' framing and they are projecting ~75 wins. They neglected to put Minter in place of Hursh, so that's 1 more win...76. Acuna will almost certainly replace Kemp or Markakis, good for an extra 2 wins...78.

Adding in framing runs for Flowers and 2 for Acuna totals 15 wins from the starting lineup. I have them projected for 20 wins. The difference being I think Freeman is good for 6 wins rather than 3.8, Albies will produce 2x the 1.6 value they projected, and I think Inciarte remains a 3 win player.

They have the rotation projected to produce 9 wins, and I pretty much agreed with 10 wins.

FG projects the bench to produce a total of 1.5 wins. I figured about 2x that.

The BP is projected to kick in 2.4 wins without Minter. I think they will produce 2 wins with Minter, so FG is higher on the BP than I am.

FG also pegs the 6-8 SPs in AAA to produce 1 win in spot starting duty.

Last year they pegged the Braves for 73 wins and we all came up with reasons the Braves would be better, and they weren't. I think it's safe to assume the Braves are currently a team with a shot at .500, and if they add a 1 win BP arm and a 2-4 win LFer they have a small but real chance at 85 wins and a WC chase late in the season.
 
The pen is an area with big time potential for improvement right now. Between putting in Minter, adding new pieces through FA or trade, and hopefully having at least one guy break out, there could be a big jump there.
 
Yeah the bullpen is the spot that I expect the most improvement next year. Provided Minter's arm doesn't fall off, he is a big upgrade. I like Sam Freeman so he gives us another lefty. I don't know much about Lindgren, but people seem to be fairly high on him so he is another potential piece. Hopefully we add a Brandon Morrow-type to the pen to go along with other righties like Jose and Viz. I love Akeel Morris too, but I never hear anyone talk about the guy. Ensheff do you have any data on him and his FB/CH combo? It just looks like it would play so well in our pen, but I don't have anything objective to back that up. Just the unreliable "eye test"... Anyway, I think it could be a very solid bullpen next year, but there are a lot of unknowns in that department.
 
I'm guessing (not projecting) a .500 at best team next season. Still a fairly unathletic bunch we throw out there. Albies helps correct some of that (and Acuna will add to the correction if and when he hits the bigs in 2018), but unless Kemp rebounds and we get production out of 3B, I think the offense will continue to be erratic.

I agree that a better bullpen would tick things up a bit, but how much should a team spend on a bullpen if it's not a true contender?
 
How do we get a 2 plus win of with 30 million in kemp and markakis?

I'm worried we overspend on a 3b like moose with a low obp. I'm worried we attach talent to a bad deal and or make another bad win now move.

No 3b listed. I think we could get a win out of there.

Maybe they could get Austin Jackson and pair him with neck. Let him backup cf to spell inciarte vs some lefties. Maybe you can get Jackson for 2-3 yr deal. I just don't see it unless we play ff at 3b or move tehrans money. I wish theys just cut kemp but you know they won't
 
I dont have a lot of faith in Minter staying healthy but I am going to go out on a limb and say the difference between Hursh and Minter has to be more than 1 extra game won if they pitched comparable innings. Minter will probably be setting up if not closing at some point next year. Hursh will probably be one of the last men out of the pen. I think that may artificially lower Hush's era. I think if he was pitching the 7th or 8th in close games he would have a 6+ ERA and Minter under 3. Over the course of a season that can be a big difference in a lot of games.
 
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think they're selling Freddie and Ozzie short on their projections.
Swanson too. I think he'll be better than 1.1 WAR.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think Ender's is reasonable because so much of his value is tied up in defense, and there are a few indicators that it is on the decline
Click to expand...

The bulk of his value being tied up in defense is precisely why the Braves were able to extend him. Players who produce wins based on offensive stats are paid well in arbitration, and they are much less likely to sign extensions (Albies and Acuna say hello).

Inciarte is going into his age 27 season when defense is typically already in decline, and it is quite possible he is done being a 3+ WAR player...but the homer in me went ahead and marked down a 3 for him anyways!
 
Are we saying Ender's defense is in decline based on one down season? He was up, went down, went up, and then went down again. Or is there something else?
 
Super said:
Are we saying Ender's defense is in decline based on one down season? He was up, went down, went up, and then went down again. Or is there something else?
Click to expand...

There's the fact that defense tends to decline around 26-27.

His UZR/150 has steadily declined from 23.7 to 18.5 to 16.0 to 2.6.

His Catch Probability Added went from 6% in 2016 to 5% in 2017.

His Sprint Speed went from 28.3 in 2015/2016 to 27.5 in 2017.

It's known as applying data to make projections and decisions. The question you should be asking is "what indicators do NOT point towards his defense declining?".
 
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