Fangraphs Braves Prospect List

CJ9

Well-known member
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-atlanta-braves/

I'm just starting to read now. They have Michael Harris #4 and are by far the lowest on Shewmake, having him at 12.

Pretty interesting asterisk to this list here though. They say our system was the toughest for them to get information on:

"This system looks a lot like it did last year: it’s currently shallow due to trades, graduations, and the fallout from the previous regime’s scandal, which has kept it from acquiring two years worth of international talent. It’s still as top-heavy a system as you’ll find in baseball, with more potential stars than is typical. Had Atlanta been able to repeat what they did in 2019’s draft in 2020, perhaps there’d be another couple players at the bottom of the list. Had there been a 2020 season, maybe Morton or Backstrom would have made the main section by going out and performing. Johnson’s uptick in stuff was just much easier to identify than anything the club’s hitters improved upon.

This system was perhaps the most difficult one to source information for so far. Atlanta did not participate in video or data sharing from their alternate site, their Instructional League roster was the smallest in baseball, and they held their instructs in Gwinnett rather than in Florida, which was a curveball for us in terms of sourcing, since all the other Florida complex teams held theirs there. We were able to source 2021 spring training pitch data for many of the upper-level pitching prospects here but many of them haven’t thrown in games that have been broadcast. Then there was this news from Wednesday: we learned Atlanta will once again avoid participating in scouting access/co-operation, at the alternate site and for minor league spring training. Teams’ participation (or lack thereof) in in-person scouting could be more of a budgetary decision than a baseball one, but it makes teams harder for scouts to advance (especially with so many pitchers likely going back and forth from the alt site to the majors) and turns video from your alternate site into a tradable asset of sorts."
 
Interesting note on Waters: "One club told us his percentage of balls hit with a 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And, again, that came as a 20-year-old in the upper minors."

Tons of interesting notes on Michael Harris, this one stood out most to me: "After they picked him, Harris went to the GCL and raked. Not only was his on-paper performance fantastic (.349/.403/.514) but so was his underlying TrackMan data, as both Harris’ average exit velo and hard-hit rates were well above the big league average. Remember that these numbers are still from 2019, our last minor league season, but Harris’ average exits were top 10 among teenagers, and only one of those ahead of him (Liover Peguero) clearly has a better chance of staying at an up-the-middle defensive position long-term."
 
This list is mainly filled with stuff we already knew, but the Harris blurb is the most interesting.

"Harris’ average exit velo and hard-hit rates were well above the big league average". Have I mentioned lately that I REALLY wish we had access to that MiLB data? This is the data for 2nd guy after Ian Anderson I would pay to see.

The average MLB exit velocity in 2019 was 88.5 MPH. I don't know what "well above average" means, but I have to imagine that puts him at ~90, which is in the Freeman/Swanson/Flowers range in 2019.

The average MLB Hard Hit % in 2019 was 38%. Again, no idea what "well above average" means, but but I'm guessing it's something like 42%, which is in the Riley/Albies/Swanson range in 2019.

So as an 18 year old he was hitting the ball with the same authority as the Braves second tier MLB power hitters (first tier being guys like Acuna, JD and Acuna). There's obviously a lot more to hitting than exit velocity, but that's a good idea of the type of impact his bat could make.

I think Harris might actually be what everyone dreams Waters is. Probably not 5+ win Acuna MVP type, but a guy in that next level.
 
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I still think people are under estimating Waters. The write up is pretty positive.

I'm not calling him a 5 WAR player. But he looks like he could be a 2-3 WAR player soon. If you had an OF of Waters, Pache and Acuna then I think it would be top 3 defensively in baseball.
 
This list is mainly filled with stuff we already knew, but the Harris blurb is the most interesting.

"Harris’ average exit velo and hard-hit rates were well above the big league average". Have I mentioned lately that I REALLY wish we had access to that MiLB data? This is the data for 2nd guy after Ian Anderson I would pay to see.

The average MLB exit velocity in 2019 was 88.5 MPH. I don't know what "well above average" means, but I have to imagine that puts him at ~90, which is in the Freeman/Swanson/Flowers range in 2019.

The average MLB Hard Hit % in 2019 was 38%. Again, no idea what "well above average" means, but but I'm guessing it's something like 42%, which is in the Riley/Albies/Swanson range in 2019.

So as an 18 year old he was hitting the ball with the same authority as the Braves second tier MLB power hitters (first tier being guys like Acuna, JD and Acuna). There's obviously a lot more to hitting than exit velocity, but that's a good idea of the type of impact his bat could make.

I think Harris might actually be what everyone dreams Waters is. Probably not 5+ win Acuna MVP type, but a guy in that next level.

By next level you mean a 10 WAR guy, right?
 
I'm admittedly a little low on Waters. Curious to see how his 2021 goes. I think he's a big league player. I'm just concerned about the K/BB ratios and those don't tend to get better when you reach the majors.. Exit velocities don't lie, but they also don't matter if you don't make solid contact consistently. The game is all about adjustments, so if he makes them, he's likely a contributor.

Nice list. I don't know the reason why the Braves put the Cone of Silence over their alternate site and the instructional league. A bit surprised to see Paolini on the list and Backstrom not and really surprised at Tyler Owens' absence. I see from the text that there will be a Dominican Summer League and I wonder what the restrictions will be in that league pertaining to roster size and age-out regulations.
 
I'm admittedly a little low on Waters. Curious to see how his 2021 goes. I think he's a big league player. I'm just concerned about the K/BB ratios and those don't tend to get better when you reach the majors.. Exit velocities don't lie, but they also don't matter if you don't make solid contact consistently. The game is all about adjustments, so if he makes them, he's likely a contributor.

Nice list. I don't know the reason why the Braves put the Cone of Silence over their alternate site and the instructional league. A bit surprised to see Paolini on the list and Backstrom not and really surprised at Tyler Owens' absence. I see from the text that there will be a Dominican Summer League and I wonder what the restrictions will be in that league pertaining to roster size and age-out regulations.

What if he's 2016 Jake Lamb with plus defense in LF on a minimum deal? I don't think those numbers are crazy given his bat speed, exit velocities, etc.
 
Waters has a lot to like. He is still very young for his age. I'd be patient. We have a decent record of these guys figuring it out.
 
What if he's 2016 Jake Lamb with plus defense in LF on a minimum deal? I don't think those numbers are crazy given his bat speed, exit velocities, etc.

What if he's white Willie Mays? We simply don't know and we'll have to wait. He could be a guy who really starts out hot and peaks relatively early in his career, but we simply don't know. He does have a lot going for him. It's going to be all about adjustments.
 
What if he's white Willie Mays? We simply don't know and we'll have to wait. He could be a guy who really starts out hot and peaks relatively early in his career, but we simply don't know. He does have a lot going for him. It's going to be all about adjustments.

point being that we have had guys that don't make contact as much and have bad K/BB ratios that you referenced. Those guys can be very productive.

It seems like every braves prospect under Coppy has been a stud or a total dud. We are due for some guys that are just good.
 
I'm surprised to see Alex Jackson so high on the list, though the write-up at the end does say it's a pretty top-heavy system. I basically have no hopes or expectations for Jackson.
 
Interesting to see Ambioris Tavarez with a 40 FV grade right off the bat, with no professional PAs and still not 18yo. Hopefully he's someone that moves up a few tiers once scouts get more eyes on him, though.
 
What if he's 2016 Jake Lamb with plus defense in LF on a minimum deal? I don't think those numbers are crazy given his bat speed, exit velocities, etc.

I'm unsure where this narrative that Waters has Lamb type power comes from. Has anyone looked at the power numbers for Lamb at the MiLB level?

Everyone realizes that Pache, a guy maligned for his lack of power, hit more HRs (12) than Waters (7) in 2019....right?

It's baffling to see this fascination with a player who is supposedly some great power/speed combo with a terrible approach that doesn't actually display any power. If he is the next Jeff Francoeur without Francoeur's power, what kind of player does that even leave? Literally the worst cOFer in the sport? Someone fighting for a 5th OF spot?

Sorry, but I just don't see how folks are continually fooled by the "he just needs to learn how to hit" line applied to every single toolsy OFer who can't hit and then predictably fails as an MLB contributor.

An .840 OPS buoyed by a .436 BABIP is the least impressive offensive line imaginable for a supposed "impact bat".
 
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