FG top 100
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Sounds like you need to get your priorities straight so something like this doesn’t happen again.
from the attempted thread stealer...
the Braves system is still really good. i could see why some think it's top heavy. they definitely need some lower-level guys to emerge. Langelier, Shewmake, one or two of the high schoolers they drafted last year.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Shea and shoe would be fast movers if they emerge. Like you said we need the high schoolers to break out. One or two would be great.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Literally never, apparently.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Scouting reports on the Braves' prospects:
Pache
Pache is an elite defensive center fielder who has offensive tools that haven’t quite been refined yet.
Even though he hit .278/.340/.474 as a 20-year-old at Double-A Mississippi, there are still some level-headed, long-term questions about Pache’s offensive ability. He had a 17% swinging strike rate last year (if we 20-80’d swinging strike rates, that’d be a 30), and you might quibble with elements of the swing, most notably that the bat path only allows for power in certain parts of the zone, and Pache has a passive, shorter move forward. The hand speed and rotational ability to hit for power is there, and he’s athletic enough to make adjustments in order to get to that power (selectivity might also be an issue), which, coupled with some of the flashiest, most acrobatic defense in pro baseball, gives Pache a cathedral ceiling.
Even though he’s already started to slow down a little bit, Pache’s reads in center, his contortionistic ability to slide and dive at odd angles to make tough catches, and his arm strength combine to make him a premium defensive center fielder — he’s a likely Gold Glover barring unexpected, precipitous physical regression. Even if he’s not posting All-Star offensive statlines, we think he’ll provide All-Star value overall because of the glove.
Waters
Waters is tooled-up center fielder with a horrendous approach.
Waters’ initial rise to top 50 prospect status was surprising to some, coming as it did by the end of his first full season. He’s got 55-to-60 grade tools across the board and always hit in high school. Some teams were and remain turned off by his loud personality, while others just see him as a colorful guy. The other concern is his aggressive approach at the plate, which didn’t give him any trouble until his taste of Triple-A late in 2019, and some scouts and analysts think it could be a problem in the big leagues.
That’s the soft part of the profile, but the indicators both to the eye (scouts rave about the swing, bat speed, and feel at the plate) and in the stats point to elite ability to manipulate the bat. One club told us his percentage of balls hit with 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And that comes as a 20-year-old in the upper minors who has plus speed and a plus arm, and who profiles in center field, with other variables that could allow you to keep rounding up from there. The happy version of this story is Starling Marte, and as soon as the middle of 2020; the sad version includes multiple years stuck in neutral at the big league level, trying to argue that the upside and defense makes up for the big strikeout rate. We’re leaning more to Marte at this point.
Anderson
Don’t sweat the low spin rates, as Anderson’s over-the-top delivery creates plenty of tumble on his curveball, and the other components (changeup, fastball carry) are clearly present.
Anderson is tracking like a mid-rotation starter, even though he hasn’t added velocity since high school, because his secondary stuff is excellent. The pitch with the most obvious beauty is his shapely curveball, which has enough depth (despite its paltry spin rate) to miss bats in the zone, and also pairs well with his fastball’s approach angle. His change has tail and fade, and either it or the curve can finish hitters. The Braves amateur department really stuck out their necks in 2016 by cutting an underslot deal with Anderson, and then using the savings to sign Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson, who are both key near-term pitching staff stalwarts, and Joey Wentz, who was traded. That’s an impressive class, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is.
Wright
Wright’s fastball movement causes the pitch to play below its velocity, and it’s unclear if that’s fixable.
Wright has now had two frustrating cups of coffee with the big league club, and some of his underlying issues (chiefly, a fastball that doesn’t produce results anywhere close to what you’d expect given how hard he throws) mimic those of the Aaron Sanchez type of pitching prospects who Look Right but don’t quite pan out.
We’re betting that Wright, who is very athletic and has the frame and mechanical ease to eat innings, and who has also developed a very deep repertoire, will find a way to be at least a league-average starter eventually. Whether that’s through further changes to his fastballs’ movement (he throws a four- and two-seamer right now, but both are sink/tail pitches rather than the ride/vertical life breed) or a heavy mix of his various secondary offerings, Wright has promising outs. If he and the Braves ever find a way to make the fastball play better than that, his ceiling is substantial, so there’s rare variance for a 24-year-old here.
Wilson
He’s had hiccups, but Wilson still projects as a bulldog fourth starter.
Wilson is a scout favorite. He’s an aggressive bulldog with a football background who relies on spotting his fastball in all quadrants of the zone, with the velocity, movement, and command all grading above average on his various fastballs (he has a distinct four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter). He’s a solid athlete with strong command and a solid average changeup, and everyone raves about his work ethic and makeup.
The issue, which will dictate his value in the bullpen or rotation, is his breaking ball. He’s been working on the slider all offseason and the team is optimistic that all his other strong qualities will manifest themselves in its development. Wilson will be limited to one time through the order if he can’t live up to that optimism, though it’s not as if there isn’t value in that, and Wilson’s mentality might arguably be better suited for it.
Pache
Pache is an elite defensive center fielder who has offensive tools that haven’t quite been refined yet.
Even though he hit .278/.340/.474 as a 20-year-old at Double-A Mississippi, there are still some level-headed, long-term questions about Pache’s offensive ability. He had a 17% swinging strike rate last year (if we 20-80’d swinging strike rates, that’d be a 30), and you might quibble with elements of the swing, most notably that the bat path only allows for power in certain parts of the zone, and Pache has a passive, shorter move forward. The hand speed and rotational ability to hit for power is there, and he’s athletic enough to make adjustments in order to get to that power (selectivity might also be an issue), which, coupled with some of the flashiest, most acrobatic defense in pro baseball, gives Pache a cathedral ceiling.
Even though he’s already started to slow down a little bit, Pache’s reads in center, his contortionistic ability to slide and dive at odd angles to make tough catches, and his arm strength combine to make him a premium defensive center fielder — he’s a likely Gold Glover barring unexpected, precipitous physical regression. Even if he’s not posting All-Star offensive statlines, we think he’ll provide All-Star value overall because of the glove.
Waters
Waters is tooled-up center fielder with a horrendous approach.
Waters’ initial rise to top 50 prospect status was surprising to some, coming as it did by the end of his first full season. He’s got 55-to-60 grade tools across the board and always hit in high school. Some teams were and remain turned off by his loud personality, while others just see him as a colorful guy. The other concern is his aggressive approach at the plate, which didn’t give him any trouble until his taste of Triple-A late in 2019, and some scouts and analysts think it could be a problem in the big leagues.
That’s the soft part of the profile, but the indicators both to the eye (scouts rave about the swing, bat speed, and feel at the plate) and in the stats point to elite ability to manipulate the bat. One club told us his percentage of balls hit with 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And that comes as a 20-year-old in the upper minors who has plus speed and a plus arm, and who profiles in center field, with other variables that could allow you to keep rounding up from there. The happy version of this story is Starling Marte, and as soon as the middle of 2020; the sad version includes multiple years stuck in neutral at the big league level, trying to argue that the upside and defense makes up for the big strikeout rate. We’re leaning more to Marte at this point.
Anderson
Don’t sweat the low spin rates, as Anderson’s over-the-top delivery creates plenty of tumble on his curveball, and the other components (changeup, fastball carry) are clearly present.
Anderson is tracking like a mid-rotation starter, even though he hasn’t added velocity since high school, because his secondary stuff is excellent. The pitch with the most obvious beauty is his shapely curveball, which has enough depth (despite its paltry spin rate) to miss bats in the zone, and also pairs well with his fastball’s approach angle. His change has tail and fade, and either it or the curve can finish hitters. The Braves amateur department really stuck out their necks in 2016 by cutting an underslot deal with Anderson, and then using the savings to sign Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson, who are both key near-term pitching staff stalwarts, and Joey Wentz, who was traded. That’s an impressive class, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is.
Wright
Wright’s fastball movement causes the pitch to play below its velocity, and it’s unclear if that’s fixable.
Wright has now had two frustrating cups of coffee with the big league club, and some of his underlying issues (chiefly, a fastball that doesn’t produce results anywhere close to what you’d expect given how hard he throws) mimic those of the Aaron Sanchez type of pitching prospects who Look Right but don’t quite pan out.
We’re betting that Wright, who is very athletic and has the frame and mechanical ease to eat innings, and who has also developed a very deep repertoire, will find a way to be at least a league-average starter eventually. Whether that’s through further changes to his fastballs’ movement (he throws a four- and two-seamer right now, but both are sink/tail pitches rather than the ride/vertical life breed) or a heavy mix of his various secondary offerings, Wright has promising outs. If he and the Braves ever find a way to make the fastball play better than that, his ceiling is substantial, so there’s rare variance for a 24-year-old here.
Wilson
He’s had hiccups, but Wilson still projects as a bulldog fourth starter.
Wilson is a scout favorite. He’s an aggressive bulldog with a football background who relies on spotting his fastball in all quadrants of the zone, with the velocity, movement, and command all grading above average on his various fastballs (he has a distinct four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter). He’s a solid athlete with strong command and a solid average changeup, and everyone raves about his work ethic and makeup.
The issue, which will dictate his value in the bullpen or rotation, is his breaking ball. He’s been working on the slider all offseason and the team is optimistic that all his other strong qualities will manifest themselves in its development. Wilson will be limited to one time through the order if he can’t live up to that optimism, though it’s not as if there isn’t value in that, and Wilson’s mentality might arguably be better suited for it.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Probably never happened before because Fangraphs just changed their prospect rankings last year.
It hasn't. They first started putting a monetary value to FV here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ based off the Point of Pittsburg work which was really good. In that article is the money shot
So Franco must be really off the charts...like literally. ARod and Andruw are the 2 best prospects I've followed so this is high praise.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Incoming crotchety old man rant....
Putting an 80 on Franco is asinine and makes me question either Longenhagen's judgment or methodology or both. These grades must be completely untethered from the traditional 20-80 OFP grading process, which makes them misleading at best. Like a perfect prospect, with 60-70/80s across the board, he could win a batting title, he might win a home run crown, he'll win gold gloves... you know, like Ken Griffey coming up, that guy would still probably get like a 70 because you know, prospects.
An 80 is what you would give to Mike Trout the year before his first MVP, you know, when he was already a 10 WAR player. It's what FG themselves gave Aaron Judge after he put up 8 WAR as a rookie (they had him at 55 coming into the year)... because that was already his present value (link).
Franco is a wonderful prospect, but Longenhagen's own writeup implies Franco may never develop power, doesn't have a single present tool higher than 60, only projects to have one tool over 60, doesn't project as a plus defender, has Cameron Maybin-esque groundball rates, and is still in A ball. Like, his hit tool can be so good that ultimately none of that matters, but those caveats are the exact reasons you don't give someone an 80. The idea that his median outcome is perennial MVP candidate, as his completely made-up "variance" chart shows, is laughable on its face. It reminds me of when BP projected (link) Matt Wieters to hit .311/.395/.544 as a rookie. Like, stop for a second and think about what your model is telling you.
From FG's own site:
So Franco, in A ball, is better than Mike Trout was when he debuted. He is equal or better than Mike Trout putting up 10 WAR as a rookie. Laughable. Just makes this entire project look unserious.
Putting an 80 on Franco is asinine and makes me question either Longenhagen's judgment or methodology or both. These grades must be completely untethered from the traditional 20-80 OFP grading process, which makes them misleading at best. Like a perfect prospect, with 60-70/80s across the board, he could win a batting title, he might win a home run crown, he'll win gold gloves... you know, like Ken Griffey coming up, that guy would still probably get like a 70 because you know, prospects.
An 80 is what you would give to Mike Trout the year before his first MVP, you know, when he was already a 10 WAR player. It's what FG themselves gave Aaron Judge after he put up 8 WAR as a rookie (they had him at 55 coming into the year)... because that was already his present value (link).
Franco is a wonderful prospect, but Longenhagen's own writeup implies Franco may never develop power, doesn't have a single present tool higher than 60, only projects to have one tool over 60, doesn't project as a plus defender, has Cameron Maybin-esque groundball rates, and is still in A ball. Like, his hit tool can be so good that ultimately none of that matters, but those caveats are the exact reasons you don't give someone an 80. The idea that his median outcome is perennial MVP candidate, as his completely made-up "variance" chart shows, is laughable on its face. It reminds me of when BP projected (link) Matt Wieters to hit .311/.395/.544 as a rookie. Like, stop for a second and think about what your model is telling you.
From FG's own site:
So Franco, in A ball, is better than Mike Trout was when he debuted. He is equal or better than Mike Trout putting up 10 WAR as a rookie. Laughable. Just makes this entire project look unserious.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
As an aside, our new hire, Colin Wyers, first made his name as an Internet Stats Geek breaking down this projection and explaining why it was so bat**** crazy. As I recall, it had something to do with BPro wildly overselling the difficulty of one of the minor leagues Wieters had dominated.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Agreed. Franco is one of my favorite prospects that I've ever followed. I mean, the dude is a switch hitting teenager dominating much older leagues extremely loud tools, including probably the best hit tool ever seen on a kid who still hasn't turned 19 yet. But there are some concerns with him. Will his power develop? If it does, will it come at the expense of his defense which is only currently projected as a 55 or at the expense of his 60 grade speed (which I actually think is undersold a bit, I've seen him in person and it looks more like 70 grade to me). He's easily the best prospect in baseball right now, but to say that his median expected outcome is one of the top 3 players in baseball is absurd.
I think its almost equally ridiculous to give 70 grades to Lux and Gore. Its almost like they decided that they liked Gore/Lux slightly more than Adell and liked Franco slightly more than Lux/Gore, so they decided to go way over the top and bump them up to ridiculous grades just so they could differentiate between them. Usually I think Fangraphs does the best job of giving realistic FVs, but this year they really went off the rails. This list is almost as bad as MLB Pipeline who decides to give 55s to any prospect with a pulse.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I understand that prospect hit rates seem to have been higher in recent years, but giving out an 80 grade and two 70s seems like a bit of overkill.
I also think they have been a little too loosey goosey with their 50 FVs in recent years. Usually, I don't think there are 120 prospects in baseball who all project to be at least league average (as their median expected outcome) at the same time.
It almost feels like Fangraphs has been taking a player's 75th percentile outcome and using it as their baseline for FV grades recently. When you've graded your top 3 prospects better than MLB Pipeline graded their top 3, I think there is reason to question your methodology lol.
Like, does Fangraphs honestly believe that Wander Franco's median expected outcome is three full standard deviations higher than that of Keibert Ruiz, Heliot Ramos, or Jesus Sanchez, just to name a few.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Also, Fangraphs has some pretty strange individual tool grades on some guys this year. I haven't looked at their track record with stuff like this, but it seems pretty odd to give a guy like Julio Rodriguez a CV of 25 for both his hit and game power tool after he dominated Rookie ball, A ball, and Hi-A at age 18 last year. Especially when you're giving Wander Franco CV's of 60 and 45 for those same tools when they are both of a similar age with a similar amount of dominance at the exact same levels. In fact, Julio's power numbers were a good bit better than that of Franco, but they graded his current game power 20 points higher? Just seems really strange.
The extra blurb on Anderson is the most interesting part of the whole article:
Don’t sweat the low spin rates, as Anderson’s over-the-top delivery creates plenty of tumble on his curveball, and the other components (changeup, fastball carry) are clearly present.
This tells me we are talking about a slow 12-6 or 11-5 curve. I simply can't find a curve with that low a spin rate that results in MLB quality movement. If someone finds something I am missing I would love to take a look.
His listed spin rate on the FA is 2150, which is nothing to write home about (average MLB spin rate on a FA in 2019 was 2287). If that somehow translates to average or better rise, then it's due to almost perfect backspin...which means little to no horizontal movement.
Don’t sweat the low spin rates, as Anderson’s over-the-top delivery creates plenty of tumble on his curveball, and the other components (changeup, fastball carry) are clearly present.
This tells me we are talking about a slow 12-6 or 11-5 curve. I simply can't find a curve with that low a spin rate that results in MLB quality movement. If someone finds something I am missing I would love to take a look.
His listed spin rate on the FA is 2150, which is nothing to write home about (average MLB spin rate on a FA in 2019 was 2287). If that somehow translates to average or better rise, then it's due to almost perfect backspin...which means little to no horizontal movement.
Hmm, what about that slow over the top dropper Greinke has been throwing the last 2 or 3 years? Do we have a spin rate on it?
Greinke threw 455 pitches last year classified as a curve. Average spin rate of 2444, ranging from 2069-2817.
It is hard to overstate just how poor a 1700 rpm spin rate is for a curve.