GDT 5/16/25: Braves @ Red Sox - Sale vs Crochet

Sad night in Titletown. Red Sox lose their fifth straight and the Celtics are losing by 35 in the middle of the third.quarter.
 
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Eli White is OPSing .580 this month, and he has reverse splits (albeit SSS against lefties), so I'm not entirely sure how a platoon with him and Verdugo would work.
 
thewupk said:
It's not. The Eli White run is over but it's probally what's gonna be used until Profar is back.
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We knew he would come crashing back down eventually and he may have another hot streak in him but on a championship level team he's not a starter.
 
We're really going to have a logjam of outfielders for a playoff run. Once Profar is back, you still need to get an OF since he can't play in the postseason, and you can't trust a Verdugo/White platoon in October --- and this is assuming Ronnie and Harris stay healthy the rest of the year.
 
Sale has pitched like a #3 this year, but definitely looks better of late. Everyone else has been mediocre or worse based on xwOBA.

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Sale, Chris 967967100.021559.300
Graphs
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Schwellenbach, Spencer 817817100.020647.326
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Holmes, Grant 755755100.016233.345
Graphs
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Elder, Bryce 709709100.016542.348
Graphs
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Smith-Shawver, AJ 591591100.014231.355
Graphs
 
I’m guessing that table didn’t post from my phone as expected. The last 3 digits after the decimal are their xwOBA so far. As gold as we think AJ has been, .355 is about as good as a 6th SP.
 
Sale's 300 xwOBA is ranked 28th among starters with atleast 150 PA's agaisnt. I wouldn't consider that #3 starter level right now.
 
msstate7 said:
I would like to see the trend lines on xwoba. He changed his release point this offseason, and it took a minute to get going
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Same. These things fluctuate this early in the season. I bet if you looked at SS’s xWOBA after his first 3 starts it would have been best in the league.

I totally believe what that number says about Holmes, Elder, and AJSS however.
 
thewupk said:
Sale's 300 xwOBA is ranked 28th among starters with atleast 150 PA's agaisnt. I wouldn't consider that #3 starter level right now.
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Calling .300 a #3 is really just a semantics thing. Defining grades as standard deviations from the mean roughly puts grade 50 at .320, grade 60 at .300, grade 70 at .280 and grade 80 at .260.

Then we somewhat lazily call the grade 50 an average MLB SP, which is a 2 win player..which is roughly a #4 SP on a real team. Then we even more lazily call a 60 a #3, a 70 a #2 and an 80 an Ace who competes for the cy young award. By definition of grade 80, there are only 2-4 Aces in the sport at any given time, but that’s just semantics, of course.

Semantics aside, Sale has been above average, or plus, or grade 60 overall this year, but is trending up. That’s a significant step back from what he was all last year. Everyone else in the rotation has been mediocre or worse.
 
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