GDT 6/13/22: Braves @ Gnats - Time To Swat Some Bugs
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Tough to not see Contreras' name in there.
Braves need to figure out what to do with Ozuna, or Ozuna needs to figure out what he's doing at the plate. His batted-ball metrics aren't terrible, and he's definitely underperforming them (.269 xBA, .530 xSLG, .351 xwoba vs .285 woba); nevertheless, his average EV is down almost 5 mph from 2020, and his walk rate had dropped by almost two-thirds (14.2 to 5.3 BB%). Those are concerning trends; and, even if 2020 was a career-year, he walked a lot more and hit the ball a lot harder in all the seasons preceding 2020, as well.
Braves need to figure out what to do with Ozuna, or Ozuna needs to figure out what he's doing at the plate. His batted-ball metrics aren't terrible, and he's definitely underperforming them (.269 xBA, .530 xSLG, .351 xwoba vs .285 woba); nevertheless, his average EV is down almost 5 mph from 2020, and his walk rate had dropped by almost two-thirds (14.2 to 5.3 BB%). Those are concerning trends; and, even if 2020 was a career-year, he walked a lot more and hit the ball a lot harder in all the seasons preceding 2020, as well.
I think what to do with Ozuna is pretty clear ATM. d’Arnaud should get 4-5 starts a week at C and Contreras should get 5-6 between C and DH. That should leave about 3 starts a week at DH for Ozuna.
msstate7
Well-known member
Compare the same stats for Olson...
.251 BA, .262 xBA
.459 slugging, .450 xSLG
.353 wOBA, .352 xwoba
If we aren't worried about Olson, we shouldn't be worried about ozuna imo considering ozuna has basically the same xStats
The difference between Duvall Olson and Swanson vs Ozuna is that they can actually catch the ball.
msstate7
Well-known member
The plan was always for ozuna to DH this season. The huge difference in wOBA and xwoba is basically a mirror image of soler last year at the break. Fortunately for us, I'm sure AA put a lot of weight in this stat difference.
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
chop2chip
Well-known member
There is plenty to worry about Ozuna the hitter. With 2020 as an important exception, Ozuna’s results don’t align with the hard hit data. Whether it’s speed, top spin, etc., there is a pattern of underperformance. On top of that, his exit velocities are down almost 5 MPH from 2020. His line drive % has cratered 10 points. Players who are slow that hit ground balls and fly balls with average exit velocities, aren’t going to perform well.
If Olson remained a .350 wOBA player, that would be a disappointment. But his underlying metrics are excellent (elite exit velocity, barrel, chase rate, etc). The only difference is he’s hitting more line drives and less fly balls (less singles/doubles, more home runs)
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msstate7
Well-known member
Zips, steamer, FGDC, The Bat, and The Batx all have him at .328 wOBA (currently .285) and 108 wRC+ (currently 80). They think he's gonna rebound, and so do i. Guess we'll see if y'all right or not
chop2chip
Well-known member
He’s a career 111 wRC+, so there is room for improvement. Keep in mind, these systems will almost always predict players will play to their career averages because it’s the best predictor for future performance for most players.
But the comparison you painted was “if you aren’t worried about Olson, then you can’t be worried Ozuna” (paraphrase). That comparison is mularkey.
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
I hate playing the nationals. F’ing blackouts in NC.
Joe said on radio a pop up storm and the tarp is on the field. Should be a short delay they say
Joe said on radio a pop up storm and the tarp is on the field. Should be a short delay they say
msstate7
Well-known member
Chips just said up to 1:45 mins, I think... maybe :45 mins to an hour
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
Whoever these clowns are on the local Atlanta station during the break, they are the worst.
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
Nope. Stopped listening, my ears were starting to bleed.