GDT 8/28/24: Braves @ Twins - Sale on Twinkies
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
I don't expect it to happen, but given each team's remaining schedule, sweeping Philly this weekend would likely make us the favorites for the division. Phillies will get a couple cupcake series before getting Tampa (who is a .500 team), Mets, Milwaukee, Mets, and Cubs, and then finishing with a feeble Nationals team to finish the year. That's 16 of their final 23 games against teams at .500 or better. Meanwhile, we only have 10 of our final 25 games against teams that are currently .500 or better.
Even taking 3 of 4 games this weekend would give us pretty decent odds at overtaking Philly. But if we split or worse, we can likely kiss the division goodbye barring some epic collapse.
Even taking 3 of 4 games this weekend would give us pretty decent odds at overtaking Philly. But if we split or worse, we can likely kiss the division goodbye barring some epic collapse.
Problem is we suck against teams under .500
Sure, but we're playing our best baseball since April right now. Getting Ozzie back in (hopefully) the next 2 weeks should help a lot too. Confidence is high.
25-16
No but I still want us to sign Nick Ahmed.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
As noted in the broadcast, the Braves finally got back to .500 from their 26-13 start. 47-47 in that span. The team is playing well, but my question is why not in May/June when we had a full lineup? In the last 25 days of Acuna in the lineup we went 12-13. 7-10 after that until Harris went down. We averaged 3.6 runs per game in that 42 game span, still with Riley, Olson, Ozuna, Albies and Harris in the lineup everyday.
Huge series sweep against a pesky Twins team. That Twins lineup was tenacious. They mentioned they had 40 foul-offs in game 2. That's insane.
Huge series sweep against a pesky Twins team. That Twins lineup was tenacious. They mentioned they had 40 foul-offs in game 2. That's insane.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Not really in a position to look but I would start with games started by someone not named Mort/sale/schwelly/fried.
This is certainly true. But some of those guys (looking squarely at you 1B) seem to be solving some problems at the plate and this team as of late is actually scoring runs more consistent with the back of their baseball cards.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
So I went down the worm hole.. thanks Nerf..
Braves are 66 - 44 when the big guns start (SS, SS part deux, Sale, Lopez, Morton, Fried) 7-16 when anyone else starts (including Holmes)
They had 13 different starting pitchers.
April non - 3-2 starters - 14-6
May non - 1-5 starters - 12-9
June non - 0-3 starters - 14-10
July non - 2-3 starters - 10-10
Aug non - 1-3 starters - 14-8
Three games in March was 2-1 with Sale's game being the only loss..
Of course this doesn't paint the whole picture because it doesn't equate score and what happened once a pitcher left, but it is a symbol of how important and probably how much better this team would have been if the big 5 (not counting the 2 games Strider started) could have started more... The Braves were right trying to protect the arms of these guys.. but it did cost the team some wins that is for sure.
The highest win probability that the Braves have played was the Sale start against the A's and of course that was a pen melt down and Sale bad start which resulted in a loss... The worst win probability was in Dodger stadium with Elder facing Glasnow and the Braves got thumped.. The next two lowest is actually tonight with Mort versus Sanchez and Sat with Fried versus Wheeler. The highest winning prob is actually the entire Rockies series starting this next Tuesday 77% for Sale's start, and 73% for both Morts and Lopez start.
Braves are 66 - 44 when the big guns start (SS, SS part deux, Sale, Lopez, Morton, Fried) 7-16 when anyone else starts (including Holmes)
They had 13 different starting pitchers.
April non - 3-2 starters - 14-6
May non - 1-5 starters - 12-9
June non - 0-3 starters - 14-10
July non - 2-3 starters - 10-10
Aug non - 1-3 starters - 14-8
Three games in March was 2-1 with Sale's game being the only loss..
Of course this doesn't paint the whole picture because it doesn't equate score and what happened once a pitcher left, but it is a symbol of how important and probably how much better this team would have been if the big 5 (not counting the 2 games Strider started) could have started more... The Braves were right trying to protect the arms of these guys.. but it did cost the team some wins that is for sure.
The highest win probability that the Braves have played was the Sale start against the A's and of course that was a pen melt down and Sale bad start which resulted in a loss... The worst win probability was in Dodger stadium with Elder facing Glasnow and the Braves got thumped.. The next two lowest is actually tonight with Mort versus Sanchez and Sat with Fried versus Wheeler. The highest winning prob is actually the entire Rockies series starting this next Tuesday 77% for Sale's start, and 73% for both Morts and Lopez start.
He's a little banged up according to Snit. What that means exactly I don't know.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
I did some of this analysis the other day, just trying to pin down the issues in the middle of the season. It all comes down to not scoring enough runs, but to add insult to injury (literally) I counted nine starts that were used ONLY to push the starters back a day. Nine starts where we went 3-6. The rest of those 'not the 5' starts were used to replace Strider (until Schwelly came along), Fried, and Lopez. It's all moot if we make the playoffs, but if we don't... you know, every game counts the same.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Well we will find that out. If we make the playoffs and win a few rounds it would be har to say it didnt work. Even a third place team has reached the world series. Our biggest weakness has been the back end of the rotation and the playoffs eliminates the need for that. So lets see how it works out before passing judgement.