GDT: 9/2 Pirates @ Braves

Southcack77 said:
Basically it’s luck with Teheran at the moment.

I mean it’s good he isn’t waking 5 per 9 any more, don’t get me wrong, but matter of rule before the balls in play start dropping.

But maybe Atlanta can ride it.
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He's kept his team in position to win when he pitches. That's what should matter. I could care less if he's underhand tossing the ball.
 
Deester11 said:
He's kept his team in position to win when he pitches. That's what should matter. I could care less if he's underhand tossing the ball.
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he's brought down the walks in August and September, which has helped him produce a FIP below 3.5 for those months
 
nsacpi said:
he's brought down the walks in August and September, which has helped him produce a FIP below 3.5 for those months
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Julio is on a good roll. 7.71 K/9 , 2.20 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9 - 3.25 FIP in last 5 starts. That's after a posting a 7.09 FIP in the 3 games prior to that.

That said he is what he is at this point. 4.95 FIP last year and 4.88 FIP on the season so far. He will give you runs like he's on right now and he can give you those 3 clunkers like he had before this. In other words....a back end starter. He is dependable in that he will pitch you innings and doesn't have any injury concerns. Will be fine as a back end guy next year.
 
thewupk said:
Julio is on a good roll. 7.71 K/9 , 2.20 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9 - 3.25 FIP in last 5 starts. That's after a posting a 7.09 FIP in the 3 games prior to that.

That said he is what he is at this point. 4.95 FIP last year and 4.88 FIP on the season so far. He will give you runs like he's on right now and he can give you those 3 clunkers like he had before this. In other words....a back end starter. He is dependable in that he will pitch you innings and doesn't have any injury concerns. Will be fine as a back end guy next year.
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You think a guy whose velocity mysteriously dips to 87 on the reg doesn’t have injury concerns? I’d won’t be too surprised if he doesn’t pitch next year.

He’s a replacement level player who is owed a ton of money. The Braves should be paying a player like this a million or so and they owe him 12.

An extension that has turned out badly. The money owed is only thing preserving him on the roster and it’s realky a negative.
 
Deester11 said:
He's kept his team in position to win when he pitches. That's what should matter. I could care less if he's underhand tossing the ball.
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What happened, happened.

But if we are predicting what he’ll do going forward...a .220 BABIP is unreasonably low.

If he continues having a .220 Babip and continues fooling batters with soft pitches, that would be great.
 
Southcack77 said:
You think a guy whose velocity mysteriously dips to 87 on the reg doesn’t have injury concerns? I’d won’t be too surprised if he doesn’t pitch next year.

He’s a replacement level player who is owed a ton of money. The Braves should be paying a player like this a million or so and they owe him 12.

An extension that has turned out badly. The money owed is only thing preserving him on the roster and it’s realky a negative.
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No I don't. I just think his stuff has declined massively.

He was at 1.5 bWAR/1.1 fWAR last year and is at 1.3 bWAR/0.5 fWAR so far this year. He's making 11 million next year. So maybe a slight overpay but he's not a replacement level player yet.
 
Julio did tell reporters his shoulder was bothering him at some point this season.

There's no need to just toss him away. It's possible he's not on the team next year (as I do think that you can afford to trade 1 starter), but if he is, there shouldn't be wailing and gnashing of teeth about it. Just accept that the guy that we saw in 2013-2016 is gone because his stuff is gone and that he's a 4th/5th starter now. And nobody should be (although I didn't see it here) getting their panties in a wad about a silly FSSE commercial saying "watch Julio Teheran, the Braves ace against ….". That's not going to happen anymore anyway.

If it gets hard to deal with him, and it's always possible it could, then you should have the depth to take care of it and simply remove him from the rotation. 2019 is his last year of his contract before an option, which can be declined, so there should be no problems with making a salary trade in season, burying him in the pen, or (hopefully not here) releasing him.
 
Southcack77 said:
What happened, happened.

But if we are predicting what he’ll do going forward...a .220 BABIP is unreasonably low.

If he continues having a .220 Babip and continues fooling batters with soft pitches, that would be great.
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I get your continual release, trade, he’s nothing rants against Julio, but he’s been more than serviceable OF LATE. The soft toss thing is Julio now. Get over it. He may be gone next year, but he’s the least of my worries with this team at this point.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Julio did tell reporters his shoulder was bothering him at some point this season.

There's no need to just toss him away. It's possible he's not on the team next year (as I do think that you can afford to trade 1 starter), but if he is, there shouldn't be wailing and gnashing of teeth about it. Just accept that the guy that we saw in 2013-2016 is gone because his stuff is gone and that he's a 4th/5th starter now. And nobody should be (although I didn't see it here) getting their panties in a wad about a silly FSSE commercial saying "watch Julio Teheran, the Braves ace against ….". That's not going to happen anymore anyway.

If it gets hard to deal with him, and it's always possible it could, then you should have the depth to take care of it and simply remove him from the rotation. 2019 is his last year of his contract before an option, which can be declined, so there should be no problems with making a salary trade in season, burying him in the pen, or (hopefully not here) releasing him.
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He probably will be on the team next year, because the Braves don't like to eat money and he's owed a lot of it. Unlikely anyone else is going to be taking him unless they are sending back an equally bad contract or are getting a good prospect for it. But I hold out hope that some tear down team would find some value in him.

He probably should not be getting starts that might otherwise be going to Gohara, Soroka, Fried, Touissant, Wilson, Wright, Weigel, etc. He's of dubious use in the pen, and paying him 12 million to anchor the Gwinnett rotation is not ideal.

This is hardly an emergency because they can always cut him if he's bad as you say.
 
thewupk said:
No I don't. I just think his stuff has declined massively.

He was at 1.5 bWAR/1.1 fWAR last year and is at 1.3 bWAR/0.5 fWAR so far this year. He's making 11 million next year. So maybe a slight overpay but he's not a replacement level player yet.
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throwing 92 in some starts and 87 in others seems like a physical issue to me.

Perhaps, it's something an offseason might help restore. Perhaps not.

I think it's a pretty big overpay for what he is, but I guess if he bounced back to being a 1 WAR guy, you could do worse. Though I can't see much reason anyone would rather see him pitching than the young players he is blocking.
 
Southcack77 said:
throwing 92 in some starts and 87 in others seems like a physical issue to me.

Perhaps, it's something an offseason might help restore. Perhaps not.

I think it's a pretty big overpay for what he is, but I guess if he bounced back to being a 1 WAR guy, you could do worse. Though I can't see much reason anyone would rather see him pitching than the young players he is blocking.
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There are 12 million reasons. Aside from the fact that his 87 has been working lately, I almost want him to stay there if he continues to be successful.
 
Deester11 said:
There are 12 million reasons. Aside from the fact that his 87 has been working lately, I almost want him to stay there if he continues to be successful.
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He leads the majors in opponent BABIP. His number is .220. The next pitcher in the majors is at .231.

Even if we buy that he has a natural talent to limit BABIP (which fangraphs writing suggests is not really a thing) he's vastly outperforming his career average, which is .270.

I dearly hope he continues to put up that kind of performance, but its simply not going to last forever. I know that seems like an obvious statement when you look at the numbers, but I do see lots of folks saying essentially, but what if he does?

My guess is that he will start the season in the Braves rotation next year, but not finish it there.

the money certainly makes a difference. It's the only thing keeping him a Brave, IMO.
 
Southcack77 said:
He leads the majors in opponent BABIP. His number is .220. The next pitcher in the majors is at .231.

Even if we buy that he has a natural talent to limit BABIP (which fangraphs writing suggests is not really a thing) he's vastly outperforming his career average, which is .270.

I dearly hope he continues to put up that kind of performance, but its simply not going to last forever. I know that seems like an obvious statement when you look at the numbers, but I do see lots of folks saying essentially, but what if he does?

My guess is that he will start the season in the Braves rotation next year, but not finish it there.

the money certainly makes a difference. It's the only thing keeping him a Brave, IMO.
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Look, I'm not adverse to any trade with JT. I'm sure that ship is probably at the dock, but this is the now and I don't see an implosion necessarily happening...but I'm sure the next start he gets hit around, you'll be there to tell us he's not worth this, not good, etc. Your opinion. I just think we're beyond what he used to be. In forecasting the future rotation, I don't see him being a part of it. Of that we can agree.
 
Deester11 said:
He's kept his team in position to win when he pitches. That's what should matter. I could care less if he's underhand tossing the ball.
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What matters is what's likely to happen in the future. Julio doesn't project to be anything more than a ~1 win guy moving forward.

Other teams know this, and nobody will trade for him. Just dumping him and getting nothing in return for that salary is not a reasonable course of action. The Braves may as well use him in lieu of acquiring their standard veteran SP for $10M.
 
Deester11 said:
Look, I'm not adverse to any trade with JT. I'm sure that ship is probably at the dock, but this is the now and I don't see an implosion necessarily happening...but I'm sure the next start he gets hit around, you'll be there to tell us he's not worth this, not good, etc. Your opinion. I just think we're beyond what he used to be. In forecasting the future rotation, I don't see him being a part of it. Of that we can agree.
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I don't recall spending a lot of time highlighting his bad starts, but all right.

I'm just pretty consistent in saying that it is regrettable that the Braves owe him so much money next year and likely will not be able to move his salary.

I will probably say it a few more times whenever the discussion is about the Braves 2019 rotation and their payroll.

Not because I dislike Julio or want to be right, but because that's just how I see it. The Braves would be better off paying a similar player less or giving a younger player a chance, IMO. But they've put themselves in a box by guaranteeing next season.

and perhaps next year he will totally rebound and have a great year. If I didn't doubt that would happen, I wouldn't hold the opinion I have. But if it happens that will be great for the Braves and I'll be happy to be wrong.

I don't sense we actually have very different opinions on this, you just seem to not like to see negative views of Teheran.

All of us do seem to repeat ourselves at times. It's a 162 game season after all.
 
Enscheff said:
What matters is what's likely to happen in the future. Julio doesn't project to be anything more than a ~1 win guy moving forward.

Other teams know this, and nobody will trade for him. Just dumping him and getting nothing in return for that salary is not a reasonable course of action. The Braves may as well use him in lieu of acquiring their standard veteran SP for $10M.
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I agree with that take, even @southcrack. Like he says it's a long season and honestly I'm ready to win in the playoffs and worry about the rotation after. I think Gausman and Folty can anchor the rotation amidst an array of good arms.
 
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