GDT 9-26: Drake going for 20 HR

Don’t forget AA could have traded Prince Albert and Bummer at the break. Now Bummer is going to get paid while sitting out all year with a bum shoulder and Prince Albert will probably get picked up and used in high leverage by the dumbest person in sports. Go 2026.
 
Enscheff said:
Mostly because it’s hard to post a low value 30 HR season. Stolen bases are the most overrated stat in baseball
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I'm not sure why they're overrated. A guy that get on 1b and immediately get to 2b seems pretty valuable to me. Now I'm not talking about a guy that runs successfully like 65-70%, but a true burner
 
msstate7 said:
I'm not sure why they're overrated. A guy that get on 1b and immediately get to 2b seems pretty valuable to me. Now I'm not talking about a guy that runs successfully like 65-70%, but a true burner
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I think the point is “30/30” implies equal weighting when in reality a homerun is like 3x more valuable than a SB
 
The expected run value of a SB is about +0.2 runs, while the value of getting caught is -0.45 runs. So while a SB is unquestionably valuable, they usually come with so many caught stealing that the overall value of all that running ends up being very small.

For comparison, a single is worth a little under 0.9 runs, a homer is worth about 2 runs, and unintentional walk is worth a bit over 0.7 runs.

So no, a HR is not 3x the value of a SB…it’s closer to 10x as valuable. That’s why I’d rather Acuna never attempt a steal because him getting hurt and missing a week makes the team team lose out on more HR value than all his SBs will contribute for the entire season.
 
Enscheff said:
The expected run value of a SB is about +0.2 runs, while the value of getting caught is -0.45 runs. So while a SB is unquestionably valuable, they usually come with so many caught stealing that the overall value of all that running ends up being very small.

For comparison, a single is worth a little under 0.9 runs, a homer is worth about 2 runs, and unintentional walk is worth a bit over 0.7 runs.

So no, a HR is not 3x the value of a SB…it’s closer to 10x as valuable. That’s why I’d rather Acuna never attempt a steal because him getting hurt and missing a week makes the team team lose out on more HR value than all his SBs will contribute for the entire season.
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Now we agree on Acuna running, but only bc he's made of glass. If he weren't such an injury risk, I say run baby run
 
I mean yeah, if he was still running on 2 mint knees, had an 80% success rate, and someone would red light him in appropriate spots, I’d say run wild.

But he’s not, he doesn’t, and nobody is…so play it station to station.
 
thewupk said:
He does have an 80% success rate
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Great. I made a logical expression that requires several statements to be true for the entire expression to be true. You can tell because I used the keyword "and".

Once again you're arguing just to argue.
 
I love the idea of SB.. I think there is some phycological value that can't be measured.. or at least might be hard to measure.. but it is hard to think that a guy who can potentially hit 30-40 homers is also attempting to steal 30-40 bases.. the risk of injury on a stolen base seems to increase exponentially.. I just don't want a guy that valuable hitting homers, getting hurt steal bases... I like the thought of a young player like pre fat Harris stealing bases..
 
Acuna's value is almost completely tied to his ability to hit the ball 110+ mph and get on base 40% of the time. Anything else is just noise as far as his value is concerned, and anything that may prevent him from doing those 2 things as much as possible should be mitigated at all reasonable costs.
 
Enscheff said:
Acuna's value is almost completely tied to his ability to hit the ball 110+ mph and get on base 40% of the time. Anything else is just noise as far as his value is concerned, and anything that may prevent him from doing those 2 things as much as possible should be mitigated at all reasonable costs.
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Before Acuna broke down, the thought of his running at least made pitching around him have to be weighed
 
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