How good is this team really?

J

jcc03004

Gwinnett Bound
I'm not trying to be a doomsdayer or anything but I'm not sure if this team as currently constructed will scare any other post season team. It seems that our pitching has to be unreal for us to win and while our pitching is good it is not good enough to win when any mediocre scrub can shut us out with very little effort. You have to wonder if our pitchers are pitching scared because they know that they can only give up 1 or 2 runs tops to have a chance to win. If you had told me that Julio would have an we under 2 harang would have an era under 3.5 Floyd is around 3 and Santana is barely over 4 even with 3 horrendous stArts in a row I would say we would be 10+ games over .500 but were closer to .500 then we are to 10 games over. I think the pen should right its self once walden and hopefully venters comes back, but with avilan's struggles unless we trade for a lefty wood is needed in the pen. The problem is when our starters aren't bringing there A game we have little to no chance of winning. And, truth be told I'm not sure what we can add offensively (besides La Stella) that will make it any better. So far is give wren an A for assembling the pitching staff but a D at best for the offense he has putten together. Is there even anything we can add that will help. This offense lives and dies (more often) by the homer and when were not hitting homers were being made to look silly. What we are seeing is the worst case scenario for the offense walks are down homers are down. Last year we were 3 outcome team walks homers or strikeouts it seems we have forgotten how to walk or hit with runners on. And oh yah. The strikeouts are up. LaStella should help As he seems to be a contact hitter. So, after the long ramble what are your guys thoughts on this season so far and more importantly going forward?
 
If La Stella can provide a .100-.200 OPS upgrade at second over what we've gotten so far, and he could easily do that given how bad our second base production has been, that would be helpful. We also need better OBP from the top of the order. Heyward has an OBP of .364 in May, which is good and I think can continue. BJ has hit the ball better but I don't think he should be in the #2 spot. I would go back to Justin batting second.

I don't worry much about the hitting with RISP and lack of 3-year homers. Those things go in streaks and we have not done well there. I'm not a believer in clutch or unclutch hitting. Hitters go from very good with RISP position one year or one month to very bad the next. It is mostly luck and randomness.

I think we'll be ok offensively. We've made the main move that needed to be made--benching Uggla. There isn't anything as obvious as that to be done. The tweak I would like to see done (moving Justin to second in the lineup) will not be nearly as consequential.
 
We are a playoff team but won't win a world series. I suppose its fun to watch them win a bunch of regular season games at least.
 
We are a good team. TLS needs to hit 1 or 2 in this lineup. It other than that the only other place to change would be CF if BJ doesn't start getting some consistent positive results by mid July. He is hitting better but lets be real, better is only a .210 hitter who still Ks a ton.
 
We're a team that has to play well to win consistently. Some teams can mail it in and still win. This one can't. These aren't the days when the team could sleepwalk for a couple of weeks because the team had Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Neagle, Millwood, etc., trotting out there every day and solid starting pitching usually prevails over time.

I don't think the Marlins are as good as they've been playing or the Nationals as bad as they've been playing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a three-team race that is decided in September.

I think there are holes in our line-up. La Stella should help, but a lot of other guys are going to have to step up.
 
We're very good when we hit well. Kind of simple. At the very least we should get much more out of Jason and BABIP. Jason's consistently proven to be an approx 120 wRC+ guy and he's sitting at 90. And most of what he's missing is power. When he has a hot month wher ehis power shoots up he'll be right there. BABIP has proven he can usually be a 110 or so wRC+ guy. BOssman should uptick some more. Having TLS instead of the craptacular hydra will only help.
 
zitothebrave said:
We're very good when we hit well. Kind of simple. At the very least we should get much more out of Jason and BABIP. Jason's consistently proven to be an approx 120 wRC+ guy and he's sitting at 90. And most of what he's missing is power. When he has a hot month wher ehis power shoots up he'll be right there. BABIP has proven he can usually be a 110 or so wRC+ guy. BOssman should uptick some more. Having TLS instead of the craptacular hydra will only help.
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The craptacular hydra has three asses instead of three heads.
 
To me, it all comes down to how poorly we are with runners in scoring position. It's just maddening! How many opportunities do we waste each game. It makes watching these games unbearable. Our approach seems to have improved a bit and we're drawing more walks and taking more pitches, but it's ridiculous how few clutch hits we get.
 
The Braves have left 358 runners on base, which is right around average. Compared to the three most in the NL:

STL- 408
Wash -396
Pit -391

Probably should be more frustrated by the lack of runners on base (.300 OBP)
 
They are clearly the best team in the east. They have as much potential as anyone. A lot can change by October. The Dodgers were one of the worst teams in the majors this time lastvyear and were postseason favorites going into the playoffs. Its not about who is the best team in May.
 
gilesfan said:
The Braves have left 358 runners on base, which is right around average. Compared to the three most in the NL:

STL- 408
Wash -396
Pit -391

Probably should be more frustrated by the lack of runners on base (.300 OBP)
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Good point. If we can push that OBP up 10-15 points, it will make a big difference.
 
We're a pretty good team. I like the pitching and the BP is solid, good enough to hold it down on most nights. I do think getting a healthy (knock on wood) Walden back will be absolutely huge. TLS will be big for this team if he can continue to get on like last night, the consistency would do wonders for this team. CJoh was so big last year because he was consistent. I like BJ in the two-hole, but I'd like to see:

Heyward RF

LaStella 2B

Freeman 1B

JUP LF

Gattis C

BJ CF

CJoh 3B

Simba SS

Pitcher
 
Real good. I honestly feel like we are hitting about as badly as we can. Nowhere to go but up. If we're all wrong about that, it's gonna be a long year. OBP is the answer to all our problems.

LaStella

JUpton

Freeman

Gattis

Heyward

Johnson

Simmons

BUpton

P

Mainly to bunch OBP. I'd flip Heyward and Gattis but I wanted to split the lefties.

Oh, and Laird, as a middle of the order hitter, just slides in at cleanup when he spells Gattis. He's ****ing huge.
 
cajunrevenge said:
They are clearly the best team in the east. They have as much potential as anyone. A lot can change by October. The Dodgers were one of the worst teams in the majors this time lastvyear and were postseason favorites going into the playoffs. Its not about who is the best team in May.
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This is true. If you just take a snapshot of now, I think we're all disappointed. We have better pitching, bats and defense than we've shown lately.
 
I see a team with a lot of weaknesses. Someone bitched last night about the bullpen needing an upgrade or two. That's true, and its way down the list of things that are hurting us. Someone else pointed out that we looked like the best team ion baseball when we were 17-7, but that's almost entirely due to a ridiculous run of great pitching will will not be duplicated. That being said i think our rotation is good enough to get us to the post season, but not good enough for us to trade any starters.

This is a bad offense with a bad defense. Pitching will only take you so far. I'll start with defense. We have three catchers and they all suck. They cost us runs almost every night, it is a very important defensive position. I have no idea if we have solved 2b or not, offensively or defensively, although last night was a positive. We're also pretty bad defensively at 3b and LF, OK in CF, and good/great at 1b, RF, and SS. Playoff teams rarely have glaring defensive holes like we do.

Offensively as others have said OBP is the problem. They absurdly high K rate is too. Tons of K's is fine if your Justin Upton with a .997 OPS but intolerable if you're BJ or CJ with low OPS. Simmons doesn't K but his OBP is also way too low. Freeman is not the superman with men in RISP that he was last year but that was unsustainable. Gattis is on the fence; he could get hot and enter JUp territory or just be another offensive liability. Same with Heyward, really don't know what to make of him as a hitter, the rest of his game is off the charts good.

So, in summary we have two plus offensive guys and three (Gattis, Heyward and LaStella) could go either way plus three hitters that need to contribute more. Couple that with three defensive positions that are bad and you aren't close to a great team, but we could be good enough if Gattis, Heyward and LaStella all hit better. . Two regulars (BJ and CJ) are below average and I think its pretty unrealistic to expect much improvement from either of those.

Our bench flat out sucks. No help there. Overall we're not as good as last year, no one has improved and some are worse.
 
stpeteirish said:
I see a team with a lot of weaknesses. Someone bitched last night about the bullpen needing an upgrade or two. That's true, and its way down the list of things that are hurting us. Someone else pointed out that we looked like the best team ion baseball when we were 17-7, but that's almost entirely due to a ridiculous run of great pitching will will not be duplicated. That being said i think our rotation is good enough to get us to the post season, but not good enough for us to trade any starters.

This is a bad offense with a bad defense. Pitching will only take you so far. I'll start with defense. We have three catchers and they all suck. They cost us runs almost every night, it is a very important defensive position. I have no idea if we have solved 2b or not, offensively or defensively, although last night was a positive. We're also pretty bad defensively at 3b and LF, OK in CF, and good/great at 1b, RF, and SS. Playoff teams rarely have glaring defensive holes like we do.

Offensively as others have said OBP is the problem. They absurdly high K rate is too. Tons of K's is fine if your Justin Upton with a .997 OPS but intolerable if you're BJ or CJ with low OPS. Simmons doesn't K but his OBP is also way too low. Freeman is not the superman with men in RISP that he was last year but that was unsustainable. Gattis is on the fence; he could get hot and enter JUp territory or just be another offensive liability. Same with Heyward, really don't know what to make of him as a hitter, the rest of his game is off the charts good.

So, in summary we have two plus offensive guys and three (Gattis, Heyward and LaStella) could go either way plus three hitters that need to contribute more. Couple that with three defensive positions that are bad and you aren't close to a great team, but we could be good enough if Gattis, Heyward and LaStella all hit better. . Two regulars (BJ and CJ) are below average and I think its pretty unrealistic to expect much improvement from either of those.

Our bench flat out sucks. No help there. Overall we're not as good as last year, no one has improved and some are worse.
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The Braves are one of the top teams in defensive runs saved in the league...
 
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