I realize that it's normal for stuff to start flowing out from camp as it begins, but I did find three things that were interesting today:
(1) I didn't realize that Norris had medical issues last year. That gives me a little optimism that he might be good enough to be an adequate third starter, as a best case scenario.
(2) Might the Braves actually open with Swanson, if he has a fantastic spring, as was somewhat inferred by Freddie's comments? My opinion is "no". I can't imagine them starting his clock, if only because the Braves don't realistically expect to compete this year.
(3) The reports on Man Ban are encouraging. He still may have a great upside. Most reports suggest that a solid three is his ceiling now, but I read something about increased velocity earlier. I still have great concerns about his health, but if he does remain healthy, might he approach ace status, if everything were to come together, or is that literally impossible?
2.) I agree that it makes little sense to even consider Swanson a candidate to start this season barring multiple catastrophic injuries during camp and don't expect to see him on the big club until September. The same goes for Blair, Newcomb, Mallex, and Sims. However, I do believe that THIS is the year that they'll be "held back" simply for service time considerations. Aybar, Norris, and the other veterans were brought in specifically for that reason. It's become uncool in baseball circles to "tank", but 2016 is going to be the only season anyone could fairly accuse the Braves of tanking - and they'd be right. I think there's very little that any of those four (or Albies) can do to see enough roster time before The Ted closes that would keep them from being Braves from 2017-2022. That said, I fully expect all of them to be on the 2017 Opening Day roster. The organization has put enough hurdles in their way - including Folty, Williams Perez, Ryan Weber, Casey Kelly, Inciarte, Peterson, and Castro to have legitimate reasons NOT to promote them this season. Coppy can still be able to look himself in the mirror after saying "We have to find out what we have in these players first" with a straight face. It won't be because they'll ever stand in those guys way, but more because they need to find out which ones they want to try to trade and which ones they want to keep for depth purposes (or to transition to the pen long-term). It just makes entirely too much sense from a marketing perspective to open the new digs with some sort of a "New Home, New Braves" kind of ad campaign.
3.) As far as Manny's concerned, I think last season cost him any shot at a long-term rotation spot here. While the door isn't completely closed, he would need to reach his absolute ceiling (and stay COMPLETELY healthy - making 28+ starts) this year. Newcomb, Fried, and Allard all have higher ceilings, and all three could be here within the next two years. Assuming Norris or one of the other "veterans" (not named Perez or Weber) is in the rotation when Folty proves healthy enough to go back into the rotation, they'll be released if they're not pitching well enough to be traded. Manny will keep his spot to see if he can finally make it through a full season. The end of the season will see some form of "homegrown" (if you include the guys we already had as homegrown) rotation - Julio, Wisler, Folty, Banuelos, Perez, and Weber, and potentially Newcomb and Blair for a start or two. I've long thought both he and Folty will be moved to the pen rather than traded, and still believe that. I think they could be huge pieces and weapons that would give us a Royals-like shutdown pen.
Blair is likely the only player who could alter those things IMO. He's the only one who has "proven" at the higher levels that he's all but a finished product. His walk rate was only minimally affected when he was promoted to the PCL last season, and his other numbers really jump out at you when you compare them to Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler's seasons in Las Vegas. If he starts the season hot in Gwinnett, they may have no way to keep him down there outside of having the #4 and #5 pitching REALLY well. I wonder if the reason that they've held that extra $10 million back that's being talked about is partly to help delay him even longer. If they can pick up another really good prospect for taking a veteran SP off someone's hands (like they did to get Touki), they'd have another hurdle to put in Aaron's way this season.
