Is Olivera for Real?

J

jimsnores

Mashin' to Mississippi
I can't help but (have reason to) be hopeful about Olivera. He's hit very consistently throughout Spring Training, albeit with only one homer. I (have reason to) believe he may actually be a decent major league hitter. I haven't seen any games, but it doesn't appear to be driven by a freakish BABIP. He's hit enough doubles that he must be hitting the ball hard fairly often. Anybody think he's actually capable of OPS-ing .825+ for a full season, while playing passable defense in LF?
 
Olivera is a hitter. The concern with him was defense and could his hitting outweigh his defense. Which he very well coudl do for a few years. The concern is does he have the power to do that? He doesn't walk enough.
 
He's still got some worrying aspects to his game. Biggest concern is that he almost never walks. That has to change or he's not going to keep it up.

The lack of power is a real concern considering hes a left fielder.

His swing still needs a ton of work. He's still wrapping his bat bad.

Olivera's having a great spring but he's still a big time work in progress.
 
striker42 said:
He's still got some worrying aspects to his game. Biggest concern is that he almost never walks. That has to change or he's not going to keep it up.

The lack of power is a real concern considering hes a left fielder.

His swing still needs a ton of work. He's still wrapping his bat bad.

Olivera's having a great spring but he's still a big time work in progress.
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I think you're overly pessimistic. If you don't think the guy hitting.500 for a month of spring training represents significant progress, you're probably not going to be persuaded that anything the guy does is worthy or for real.

In eight straight seasons in Cuba, he had more walks than strikeouts. His career delta between BA and OBP is .082. Sounds to me like he commands the zone just fine.

As for the lack of power comment, there's gap power and HR power. I think the guy can hit 40 doubles and 20 HRs, so he's not exactly a slap hitter.

I'd definitely prefer him in the infield, though.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I think you're overly pessimistic. If you don't think the guy hitting.500 for a month of spring training represents significant progress, you're probably not going to be persuaded that anything the guy does is worthy or for real.

In eight straight seasons in Cuba, he had more walks than strikeouts. His career delta between BA and OBP is .082. Sounds to me like he commands the zone just fine.

As for the lack of power comment, there's gap power and HR power. I think the guy can hit 40 doubles and 20 HRs, so he's not exactly a slap hitter.

I'd definitely prefer him in the infield, though.
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I didn't say he hasn't made significant progress. He has. He looked pretty bad at the plate last year hitting a ton of weak grounders and pop ups. He's hitting the ball with much more authority. I'm just not calling Cooperstown yet. He's still got some legitimate issues.

Hector walked more than he K'd not as much because he walked a ton but more because he didn't strike out a lot. Olivera's ability to make contact was always his best tool. Last season he walked 5 times after reaching Atlanta. Projected over 600 PAs that's about 35 BBs. That's a walk rate somewhere between Jeff Francoeur and Andrelton Simmons. So far this spring I think Olivera has walked twice. So that's one area he's shown zero improvement in. Ultimately, I'd be surprised if he eclipsed 40 BBs. And while he's not a strikeout machine, he's also not as hard to strikeout as someone like Simmons. Based on what he did last year and what he did this spring, you're probably looking at a guy who will whiff about 70 times in 600 PAs. These aren't great peripherals and it makes him very dependent on luck. Still, this shouldn't prevent him from hitting .280+ if he can continue to make solid contact.

I think 40 2Bs and 20 HRs is very, very, very optimistic. I've seen nothing from Olivera that makes me think he's a 20 HR guy. His swing is designed to hit line drives with little lift. I think he maxes out at 15 HRs and closer to 10 is much more likely. 40 doubles is a possibility but I don't see it as likely. I think 30 doubles is more probable if he stays healthy and doesn't hit any skids where he looks like he did last year.
 
For years, we (me included) made injury excuses for Heyward.
Now it's suggested for another player, and it's just preposterous.
 
nsacpi said:
Lets say May 31. How do his hitting numbers pre and post injury compare?
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No one is guaranteeing that the thumb messed him up, but he had a pretty good May and a pretty good June.

I know you're attempting to draw a line at one date and say "oh well if were injured on X, why did he do this on Y?" I think that might be a tad too simplistic. We truthfully don't know how the injury affected him for the rest of the season, or when it bothered him the most. Maybe it felt fine after some rest, he played and hit well, and then he re-aggravated it and it bothered him from then on. We do know he hit well in May and June, not even with crazy BABIPs in either month, and then fell off. It could've been a lot of things, and it likely was - but the thumb could certainly be part of that.
 
nsacpi said:
And a pretty bad April. Facts be stubborn things.
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More facts. Jace was 25 years old for most of last year, and was playing his first full major league season.

It's not unreasonable to expect a guy under those circumstances to improve. Nor is it uncommon for a rookie (or near rookie) to hit the proverbial wall late in the year the first time he gets to play a significant amount.
 
DirkPiggler said:
More facts. Jace was 25 years old for most of last year, and was playing his first full major league season.

It's not unreasonable to expect a guy under those circumstances to improve. Nor is it uncommon for a rookie (or near rookie) to hit the proverbial wall late in the year the first time he gets to play a significant amount.
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Actually being 25 as a rookie is an argument for tempering expectations.
 
I've seen quite a few Olivera AB's and I've certainly come way with a reason to believe in optimism. He's done a nice job of staying inside the baseball and thus hitting the ball hard from gap to gap. He also has very impressive plate coverage and shown the ability to get fooled on a good offspeed pitch and yet still barrell up the ball. Both of his doubles the other day were on offspeed pitches.

I also have reason to believe that Olivera shows more patience then striker believes. In each of his AB's that I've seen he's taken the first pitch. He's certainly not Joey Votto, but he's nowhere near Adonis Garcia either. He hasn't been a hitter that just wildly swings at everything. So even though the BB's aren't there, I'm not too concerned by that as I think that has something to do with Olivera's ability to make contact (only 6 k's in 58 AB's)

The bottom line is that he's consistently hit the ball hard and doesn't strike out a ton. It's certainly given me reason to be optimistic that he will hit at least to a similar level to someone like Brandon Phillips when he was 30ish years old.
 
weso1 said:
I've seen quite a few Olivera AB's and I've certainly come way with a reason to believe in optimism. He's done a nice job of staying inside the baseball and thus hitting the ball hard from gap to gap. He also has very impressive plate coverage and shown the ability to get fooled on a good offspeed pitch and yet still barrell up the ball. Both of his doubles the other day were on offspeed pitches.

I also have reason to believe that Olivera shows more patience then striker believes. In each of his AB's that I've seen he's taken the first pitch. He's certainly not Joey Votto, but he's nowhere near Adonis Garcia either. He hasn't been a hitter that just wildly swings at everything. So even though the BB's aren't there, I'm not too concerned by that as I think that has something to do with Olivera's ability to make contact (only 6 k's in 58 AB's)

The bottom line is that he's consistently hit the ball hard and doesn't strike out a ton. It's certainly given me reason to be optimistic that he will hit at least to a similar level to someone like Brandon Phillips when he was 30ish years old.
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You give me reason to hope.
 
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