JS/JHart interview

If you can make a 3-4 WAR improvement by spending $10M on the BP you'd have to be pretty dumb not to do it. It is the most cost effective way to improve if you have a poor relief staff.
 
I wouldn't read too much into all this. Sure they are leaking a few nuggets out to the media, but what actually may happen is a totally different animal. I'd guess that this offseason looks a lot like the last one and we turn over a LOT of players.
 
Enscheff said:
If you can make a 3-4 WAR improvement by spending $10M on the BP you'd have to be pretty dumb not to do it. It is the most cost effective way to improve if you have a poor relief staff.
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That valuation is a bit aggressive, but I agree with the spirit of this. Based on how Hart / Coppy operated last year, we won't be shopping from the top shelf. I'd guess we'd spend $8m - $10m AAV to add 3 arms. If these 3 arms can produce 1.0 to 1.5 WAR and replace the production of 3 AAAA guys who would produce 0 to -0.5 WAR, we'd come out looking fine on this investment.
 
nsacpi said:
Grilli and Jim Johnson were good signings. If we can replicate that this off-season it would be great.
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Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.
 
dak said:
Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.
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1.5 WAR for 7M is good. Last off-season the going rate for FA starting pitchers was about 6M/projected win and for FA hitters about 7M/projected win. One of the questions for this off-season is whether the front office will dabble in a slightly more expensive section of the free agent reliever pool.
 
dak said:
Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.
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What the H happened to Johnson in LA? He was solid for us, but has really struggled there.

I don't think we have to go dumpster diving to improve the bullpen. There should be a lot of reasonable options out there that can help mightily that would cost us similar to what we invested last season (< $10 MM). I don't know if Vizcaino is a closer, but he pitched well enough to merit consideration. Once closer is established, the team can build back from there. After the departure of Avilan and Johnson, we didn't have anyone remotely reliable to bridge from the starter to the closer.

The bullpen is kind of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" proposition. I subscribe to the theory that nothing can kill a team's morale like a shaky bullpen, especially a team with limited offense. If that's who you are, you have to win games you are supposed to win and having a bullpen that promotes the evaporation of hard-earned leads, it just saps the life out of a squad.
 
50PoundHead said:
What the H happened to Johnson in LA? He was solid for us, but has really struggled there.

I don't think we have to go dumpster diving to improve the bullpen. There should be a lot of reasonable options out there that can help mightily that would cost us similar to what we invested last season (< $10 MM). I don't know if Vizcaino is a closer, but he pitched well enough to merit consideration. Once closer is established, the team can build back from there. After the departure of Avilan and Johnson, we didn't have anyone remotely reliable to bridge from the starter to the closer.

The bullpen is kind of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" proposition. I subscribe to the theory that nothing can kill a team's morale like a shaky bullpen, especially a team with limited offense. If that's who you are, you have to win games you are supposed to win and having a bullpen that promotes the evaporation of hard-earned leads, it just saps the life out of a squad.
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I'm pretty comfortable going into the year with Viz as our closer...also knowing Grilli should be back early on.
 
I imagine $5M-$10M will be spent on the BP on 1-2 year deals, $10M-$15M will be spent on a SP over 3-4 years, and $10M-$15M will be spent on C and LF.

Think along the lines of adding another Grilli/JJ to the BP, the equivalent of Markakis to the rotation (and the ensuing complaints about an overpaid average MLB player), an AJ/Ianetta caliber guy at C, and a LHed hitting guy to platoon in LF.
 
"We will be better," Hart said. "We can't overhaul the whole offense. We know there are some limitations offensively. As we sit here today, we think that we can make progress offensively. We can make significant improvements with our pitching. We're going to have young pitchers who are a year older and a year better. I think we'll have a bullpen that will have a lot of depth. Does that translate to another 15-20 wins? Maybe."

I think the comments on the offense are interesting and realistic. One way to improve the offense without an overhaul is to be smarter about matchups.

I think the outfield offers some especially rich possibilities. The front office has already alluded to a possible platoon in left. Bourn has significant conventional platoon splits. And Swisher hits lefties better. Plus we need to take care to limit their at bats to prevent options from vesting.
 
nsacpi said:
"We will be better," Hart said. "We can't overhaul the whole offense. We know there are some limitations offensively. As we sit here today, we think that we can make progress offensively. We can make significant improvements with our pitching. We're going to have young pitchers who are a year older and a year better. I think we'll have a bullpen that will have a lot of depth. Does that translate to another 15-20 wins? Maybe."

I think the comments on the offense are interesting and realistic. One way to improve the offense without an overhaul is to be smarter about matchups.

I think the outfield offers some especially rich possibilities. The front office has already alluded to a possible platoon in left. Bourn has significant conventional platoon splits. And Swisher hits lefties better. Plus we need to take care to limit their at bats to prevent options from vesting.
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There's only one problem with that logic, Fredi Gonzalez is still the manager of the Atlanta Braves at last check.
 
nsacpi said:
"We will be better," Hart said. "We can't overhaul the whole offense. We know there are some limitations offensively. As we sit here today, we think that we can make progress offensively. We can make significant improvements with our pitching. We're going to have young pitchers who are a year older and a year better. I think we'll have a bullpen that will have a lot of depth. Does that translate to another 15-20 wins? Maybe."

I think the comments on the offense are interesting and realistic. One way to improve the offense without an overhaul is to be smarter about matchups.

I think the outfield offers some especially rich possibilities. The front office has already alluded to a possible platoon in left. Bourn has significant conventional platoon splits. And Swisher hits lefties better. Plus we need to take care to limit their at bats to prevent options from vesting.
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Hart recognizes that offense is a big issue and the toughest thing to fix. Good thing he traded 3 of our best offensive players in the offseason for more pitching
 
sturg33 said:
Hart recognizes that offense is a big issue and the toughest thing to fix. Good thing he traded 3 of our best offensive players in the offseason for more pitching
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I think our offensive "fix" for 2016 is Bourn/Swisher/Olivera but this is not something that the FO wants to publicly utter.

I am somewhat sympathetic to the need to devote a big chunk of 2016 toward assessing whether Olivera can hack it at third and whether Peterson or a Peterson/Castro platoon is acceptable at second.
 
nsacpi said:
I think our offensive "fix" for 2016 is Bourn/Swisher/Olivera but this is not something that the FO wants to publicly utter.
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Hart's comments have me ever more bullish than before that we will improve from a personnel standpoint . . . not just re-arrange some parts. I don't expect them to knock our socks off, but very good chance they do something. I'd be very satisfied with one or more platoon additions. They certainly seem to have the money and talent to pull that off. Are they willing and able to add a significant player? I'd say no. And I'm okay with that. The last thing I want to see is some A. J. Preller nonsense.
 
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