Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

T

thewupk

Sabermetric Slut
These calculations are based on the Braves 128 remaining games and Kemp playing in 116 of them. Kemp has seemed to improve on his DRS number and is on pace to end the year at only -12. While not good that's a step up from previous seasons. So assuming he ends the year -12 in DRS and plays in roughly 140 total games he would need to end the season with an ~800 OPS to reach the 1 bWAR mark. Certainly doable at this point. If his defense starts to tank even worse he would need to step up his offensive game to balance it out.

I'll make updates to this throughout the season.

Update: Kemp is on pace for -18 runs right now instead of the -12 he was when the first post was made. So at this point he needs to finish the season with an 850 OPS instead of the 800 OPS that was originally stated.
 
Since he already has 0.3 bWAR in his back pocket, I think it'd be interesting to see what he would need to do from here on out to accumulate 0.7
 
smootness said:
Since he already has 0.3 bWAR in his back pocket, I think it'd be interesting to see what he would need to do from here on out to accumulate 0.7
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Assuming the same level of defensive play he would need to have around a 775 OPS the rest of the way to reach 0.7. That's assuming he only misses like 8 more games the rest of the year. So a different level of defensive play and or playing more or less games would change that. But that's a decent ballpark number to go off of for now.
 
thewupk said:
Assuming the same level of defensive play he would need to have around a 775 OPS the rest of the way to reach 0.7. That's assuming he only misses like 8 more games the rest of the year. So a different level of defensive play and or playing more or less games would change that. But that's a decent ballpark number to go off of for now.
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He's certainly capable of that offensively.
 
I think he easily has a .800+ OPS by years end. He's already spent a full half season as a Brave, and has a .880 OPS so far. I think that level of production is a little too optimistic to expect for the rest of the season. But I think he could easily keep up a .825 OPS or better for the rest of the season.
 
He will definitely be able to continue an .800-.850 pace in OPS. His defense will just get worse and worse as this lost season drags on, and his WAR will suffer accordingly.
 
Carp said:
I think he easily has a .800+ OPS by years end. He's already spent a full half season as a Brave, and has a .880 OPS so far. I think that level of production is a little too optimistic to expect for the rest of the season. But I think he could easily keep up a .825 OPS or better for the rest of the season.
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Closer to .900, I'll wager. He'll hit his first 20 by accident.
 
thethe said:
His fielding metrics are bogus this year as well.

You can't find me more than 2-3 plays that you said, "A good LF makes that play".
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I haven't seen most of the games. The few I've seen on tv make it look like he's running around in an invisible suit or armor. Stiff and slow. I don't think he's been gattis bad but he's probably klesko bad or worse.

If we had a lane Adams up and another manager we could probably defensive sub him and limit his chances to hurt his metrics
 
thethe said:
His fielding metrics are bogus this year as well.

You can't find me more than 2-3 plays that you said, "A good LF makes that play".
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How many singles does he turn into doubles because he is slow? Kemp is a bad defensive outfielder. I think everybody sees that but homers on this board.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
No ****. He's way better hitter than he's given credit by WARriors. An excellent hitter, even.
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Excellent? We'll see how his numbers shake out when his BABIP isn't above 400. He's probably going to end up in the 120-125 WRC+ range offensively is about what I expected.
 
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