Late Bloomer Update

[nsacpi]

BABIP is now at .395. So starting to normalize. But what is normal for Flowers. He is a high BABIP hitter. In the prior three seasons he's had BABIPs of .355, .320 and .366. So normal might be .350 or so.

The thing that makes me think that part of the late bloom is real is the strikeout rate. For his career it is over 31%. But the previous two seasons has been under 30%. And so far this year 20%.

If most of that reduction in the strikeout rate is real, and you combine that with a high BABIP, a decent walk rate, some power and strong framing skills and you have a player who can give you above-average production at catcher. The Braves rank 4th in the majors in WAR from the catcher position so far this season.

For the right price, the Braves gotta extent.

 

[auyushu]

BABIP is now at .395. So starting to normalize. But what is normal for Flowers. He is a high BABIP hitter. In the prior three seasons he's had BABIPs of .355, .320 and .366. So normal might be .350 or so.

The thing that makes me think that part of the late bloom is real is the strikeout rate. For his career it is over 31%. But the previous two seasons has been under 30%. And so far this year 20%.

If most of that reduction in the strikeout rate is real, and you combine that with a high BABIP, a decent walk rate, some power and strong framing skills and you have a player who can give you above-average production at catcher. The Braves rank 4th in the majors in WAR from the catcher position so far this season.

For the right price, the Braves gotta extent.

Yep, if we could get him for a Cervelli type deal or a little less I'd probably go for it. His framing skills will be invaluable with all our young pitchers coming up the next couple years. He's done a fantastic job with Newcomb.

 

[nsacpi]

On pace for a 3.5 win season, even without accounting for the value of his pitch framing.

He isn't quite that good (BABIP back over .400 and will not be sustained at quite that level). But I think he is one of those guys who has improved (and you can see it most clearly in the strikeout rate) in his early 30s.

I would project him to be a 2-3 win player over the next couple years.