Late season pitching adds the Braves should do if they can

H

Horsehide Harry

<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
If the Giants place Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija on waivers and they clear which they probably would considering what they are owed and what they are doing right now the Braves should be all over them. Neither is the "ACE" they would like but both come as a somewhat known commodity, are controllable, and have the upside of a #2 starter. Moore would be 29 next year coming off a down year for him and under control for $9M in 18 ($1M buy out) and $10M in 19 (0.75M buy out). He has some risk but his downside is limited due to the buy outs. But, the Giants probably will look to cut payroll and may cut him after the season for the $1M buy out IF they don't get a trade taker.

Samardzija will be 33 and making $18M per year through 2020. I can't see either costing much to get as the Giants want to move the payroll.

Still not having a true ace but the Braves could go into 2018 with a rotation of Folty, Teheran, Samardzija, Moore and either Newcomb or Sims. They could then buy enough time to work in guys like Wright, Soroka, Allard without having to give those guys up for a Archer type.

You might consider buying on Melancon as well if you think it likely his 17 is an anomaly.
 
I want to give Viz every chance to hold down the Closer role. If he can stay healthy (big if), he could be the guy until 2020. Certainly has the stuff to get the job done; and he's certainly had enough adversity to be tough enough. Time to thank Johnson for his service and invite him back on reunion weekends.
 
msstate7 said:
What you wanna do with dickey? I want him back next season myself
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I would let Dickey go. Even though he is a knuckleballer he will be in his mid 40's. It's possible the fountain of youth continues to work. It's also possible that Bartolo's cliff is just over the rise. At any rate, he's a solution for only one more year no matter what. I prefer to use his $8M as well as (Colon and Garcia's money) elsewhere.
 
atl717 said:
No, paying those guys that money to be not very good is not what the franchise needs.
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What would you prefer? Dickey's downside or Moore's upside? Those two get essentially the same money. What you see with Dickey right now is the best he has been in years and is likely unsustainable. Whereas what you see with Moore is his worst in years.

As for Samardzija, his $18M is more than either Colon or Garcia but not by much on either and less on them combined.

Or you could try to trade for a young starter like Archer who will cost you Moore's money PLUS a haul of young talent going the other way.

Or you could throw $25M per for 5-7 years at guys like Arrieta or Darvish.

Or you could sit on the sidelines and do nothing waiting for Teheran, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Wisler and Blair to take a step forward in their development and take your losses, which the FO doesn't seem to want to do.

I think it reasonable to believe that none of the Allard, Soroka, Wright, Gohara group will come up in 2018 and become front of the rotation type starters and the Braves already have 3-5 covered. So, you have to think those guys will be worked in as pitchers from the current wave wash out.
 
rico43 said:
I want to give Viz every chance to hold down the Closer role. If he can stay healthy (big if), he could be the guy until 2020. Certainly has the stuff to get the job done; and he's certainly had enough adversity to be tough enough. Time to thank Johnson for his service and invite him back on reunion weekends.
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I look at Melancon as a potential upside buy if the Giants look to trim payroll in the offseason. I would be ok with giving Viz and extended shot but Johnson,s 2018 money is guaranteed so he's going to be around.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If the Giants place Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija on waivers and they clear which they probably would considering what they are owed and what they are doing right now the Braves should be all over them. Neither is the "ACE" they would like but both come as a somewhat known commodity, are controllable, and have the upside of a #2 starter. Moore would be 29 next year coming off a down year for him and under control for $9M in 18 ($1M buy out) and $10M in 19 (0.75M buy out). He has some risk but his downside is limited due to the buy outs. But, the Giants probably will look to cut payroll and may cut him after the season for the $1M buy out IF they don't get a trade taker.

Samardzija will be 33 and making $18M per year through 2020. I can't see either costing much to get as the Giants want to move the payroll.

Still not having a true ace but the Braves could go into 2018 with a rotation of Folty, Teheran, Samardzija, Moore and either Newcomb or Sims. They could then buy enough time to work in guys like Wright, Soroka, Allard without having to give those guys up for a Archer type.

You might consider buying on Melancon as well if you think it likely his 17 is an anomaly.
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I could see taking a flyer on Moore because of he's relatively cheap and it could only be for a year. He would give us another LHP in the rotation and I wouldn't be surprised if he rebounded some. I've never liked Samardzija. Great stuff, but seems to pay for every mistake.

On a side note, the the eff happened with the Giants this year? Losing Bumgarner for an extended period of time obviously hurt them, but there's been a near total collapse on offense.
 
50PoundHead said:
I could see taking a flyer on Moore because of he's relatively cheap and it could only be for a year. He would give us another LHP in the rotation and I wouldn't be surprised if he rebounded some. I've never liked Samardzija. Great stuff, but seems to pay for every mistake.

On a side note, the the eff happened with the Giants this year? Losing Bumgarner for an extended period of time obviously hurt them, but there's been a near total collapse on offense.
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They are getting old and bad in some areas (Pence, Span, Cain) and have seen off years (Crawford, Melancon, Cueto) from unexpected areas and have had their share of injuries (Bum, Panik, Belt). They are also in a division where every other team outside of SD are having excellent years.

Their biggest problem is no offense, specifically a huge shortage on run producing power.

To me, they need to rebuild in a bad way.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
They are getting old and bad in some areas (Pence, Span, Cain) and have seen off years (Crawford, Melancon, Cueto) from unexpected areas and have had their share of injuries (Bum, Panik, Belt). They are also in a division where every other team outside of SD are having excellent years.

Their biggest problem is no offense, specifically a huge shortage on run producing power.

To me, they need to rebuild in a bad way.
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In a sense the Giants are in somewhat the same boat we are although they are older. Like us, they have one bona fide stud (Posey to our Freeman) and a fair bit of filler. Crawford is having a terrible year, but he's still solid defensively so he's not a total loss on the field. Their offense stinks and losing Bumgarner poked a huge hole in their safety net. I've never much liked Pence as a player and I've liked Span, but I agree they are on the other side of the hill at this point. Curious to see what they do in the off-season. In recent years, they haven't been a team that folds the tent and moves on. Cueto contract could really put a crimp in whatever plans they have.
 
50PoundHead said:
In a sense the Giants are in somewhat the same boat we are although they are older. Like us, they have one bona fide stud (Posey to our Freeman) and a fair bit of filler. Crawford is having a terrible year, but he's still solid defensively so he's not a total loss on the field. Their offense stinks and losing Bumgarner poked a huge hole in their safety net. I've never much liked Pence as a player and I've liked Span, but I agree they are on the other side of the hill at this point. Curious to see what they do in the off-season. In recent years, they haven't been a team that folds the tent and moves on. Cueto contract could really put a crimp in whatever plans they have.
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Agree. I think Cueto does not opt out. If he's smart he won't. So, there's a good chance he becomes their new Cain. It's also very dangerous to have your best position player to be a catcher because of the hazards and wear associated with that position. Their farm is pretty horrible as well with only one top 100 guy (Arroyo at #64) and he looks iffy to me. I would say they are fortunate that they have a lot of cash to throw around.

They look like they could be the Phillies to me and soon.
 
Shark has a limited no trade clause and San Francisco is a beautiful place

Samardzija can be traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics and Nationals without his consent.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
What would you prefer? Dickey's downside or Moore's upside? Those two get essentially the same money. What you see with Dickey right now is the best he has been in years and is likely unsustainable. Whereas what you see with Moore is his worst in years.

As for Samardzija, his $18M is more than either Colon or Garcia but not by much on either and less on them combined.

Or you could try to trade for a young starter like Archer who will cost you Moore's money PLUS a haul of young talent going the other way.

Or you could throw $25M per for 5-7 years at guys like Arrieta or Darvish.

Or you could sit on the sidelines and do nothing waiting for Teheran, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Wisler and Blair to take a step forward in their development and take your losses, which the FO doesn't seem to want to do.

I think it reasonable to believe that none of the Allard, Soroka, Wright, Gohara group will come up in 2018 and become front of the rotation type starters and the Braves already have 3-5 covered. So, you have to think those guys will be worked in as pitchers from the current wave wash out.
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I would bring in someone like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn on a three year deal.

Rotation at the start of 2018 would be: Dickey, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, Cobb

At some point in 2018 bring up guys like Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Wright. I think two of them will have earned a spot in the rotation by the start of 2019.

So the 2019 rotation might look like this: Gohara, Soroka, Cobb, and two of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb.

If things go well (fingers crossed) we can trade one of Folty, Teheran or Newcomb for a third baseman. If things go well. By that I mean all three of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb do well in 2018 and stay healthy. It is a big if. But I don't think we can trade Teheran this off-season. We have to give him a chance to re-establish value in 2018. We should hold on to Folty and see if he can take another step forward. Ditto for giving Newcomb a long look.

I think trading multiple top prospects for Archer or Fulmer would be a mistake. We have to stick to the plan of developing our own top shelf starting pitchers. It takes patience, but it is the course that gives us the best chance for sustainable success.
 
With respect to the Giants, their front office has made it clear they are going to reload for 2018 rather than rebuild.
 
nsacpi said:
I would bring in someone like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn on a three year deal.

Rotation at the start of 2018 would be: Dickey, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, Cobb

At some point in 2018 bring up guys like Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Wright. I think two of them will have earned a spot in the rotation by the start of 2019.

So the 2019 rotation might look like this: Gohara, Soroka, Cobb, and two of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb.

If things go well (fingers crossed) we can trade one of Folty, Teheran or Newcomb for a third baseman. If things go well. By that I mean all three of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb do well in 2018 and stay healthy. It is a big if. But I don't think we can trade Teheran this off-season. We have to give him a chance to re-establish value in 2018. We should hold on to Folty and see if he can take another step forward. Ditto for giving Newcomb a long look.

I think trading multiple top prospects for Archer or Fulmer would be a mistake. We have to stick to the plan of developing our own top shelf starting pitchers. It takes patience, but it is the course that gives us the best chance for sustainable success.
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I think Lynn may be trending down, but I'd love to get Cobb. He'll be 2 years removed from TJ and should have feel for his split-change back fully by next year.

I think Chris Tillman could be a guy we try and get on a 1 year prove it deal. He's had a down year, but pitched well under Hernandez.

It would not suprise me if we traded Teheran this offseason, signed or traded for a guy like Cobb and had Dickey/Tillman on 1 year deals ready to flip when someone is ready to take over.
 
Chico said:
Shark has a limited no trade clause and San Francisco is a beautiful place

Samardzija can be traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics and Nationals without his consent.
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How does that work on a waiver claim though?

If he clears revocable waivers, and a team outside of the trade list claims him, can the Giants let him walk for no compensation to that team just to get out from under the payroll?
 
nsacpi said:
I would bring in someone like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn on a three year deal.

Rotation at the start of 2018 would be: Dickey, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, Cobb

At some point in 2018 bring up guys like Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Wright. I think two of them will have earned a spot in the rotation by the start of 2019.

So the 2019 rotation might look like this: Gohara, Soroka, Cobb, and two of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb.

If things go well (fingers crossed) we can trade one of Folty, Teheran or Newcomb for a third baseman. If things go well. By that I mean all three of Folty, Teheran and Newcomb do well in 2018 and stay healthy. It is a big if. But I don't think we can trade Teheran this off-season. We have to give him a chance to re-establish value in 2018. We should hold on to Folty and see if he can take another step forward. Ditto for giving Newcomb a long look.

I think trading multiple top prospects for Archer or Fulmer would be a mistake. We have to stick to the plan of developing our own top shelf starting pitchers. It takes patience, but it is the course that gives us the best chance for sustainable success.
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If the Braves were closer to an 80 win team this year, I would largely agree with this. I also agree that unloading prospects for Archer or Fulmer at this point in time would be foolish, even if the bulk of the package is pitching prospects.

However, as things currently stand, I don't think they should be giving $50M+ to any FA SP. They should not assume the risk of an expensive long term pitcher until they are more clearly ready to contend.

Start 2018 with Teheran, Folty, Dickey, Newk and a battle for the 5th spot between guys like Sims, Blair, Wisler and Medlen. As guys get hurt, or guys like Newk and the 5th SP prove ineffective, look to break in whichever of Soroka, Allard, Gohara or Wright has earned their shot.

Continue to cycle through those guys in 2018 and 2019 until they find 3-4 guys who can stick in the rotation as 3+ WAR SPs. At that point, look to augment the roster with trades and FAs.
 
Enscheff said:
Continue to cycle through those guys in 2018 and 2019 until they find 3-4 guys who can stick in the rotation as 3+ WAR SPs. At that point, look to augment the roster with trades and FAs.
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That's pretty much what I want to do. But I'm also willing to take a limited amount of financial risk this off-season in an attempt to accelerate the process. Financial risk along the magnitude of trying to sign someone like Cobb or Lynn for 40M or so for 3 years. I wouldn't sign either for 50+M.

We do have some financial flexibilty.

We have the Colon and Garcia money to play with this off-season.

After 2018, it will be the Markakis, Dickey and Johnson contracts coming off the books.

After 2019, Kemp comes off the books.
 
nsacpi said:
That's pretty much what I want to do. But I'm also willing to take a limited amount of financial risk this off-season in an attempt to accelerate the process. Financial risk along the magnitude of trying to sign someone like Cobb or Lynn for 40M or so for 3 years. I wouldn't sign either for 50+M.

We do have some financial flexibilty.

We have the Colon and Garcia money to play with this off-season.

After 2018, it will be the Markakis, Dickey and Johnson contracts coming off the books.

After 2019, Kemp comes off the books.
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I think it's almost a certainty they will add a controllable SP this offseason, either via trade or FA.

I can't be too against it, but I would rather see Dickey cut loose if they decide to upgrade the rotation by dumping even more resources into it.
 
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