Looking at 2016 FA and trade options at Catcher

dak

dak

Well-known member
Now that it seems clear that CBeth won't come to ST as our starting catcher, I wanted to take a closer look at the available options in the FA and trade markets. Lucroy was the most obvious inclusion as a trade option, and I also added Montero and Ellis since the Cubs and Dodgers have a better option ahead of these guys. All stats included are form 2013-2015. Defensive stats at Catcher are weird, so I included several.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1000"]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Age in 2016[/TD]
[TD]wRC+[/TD]
[TD]BRef dWAR[/TD]
[TD]FG Def[/TD]
[TD]DRS[/TD]
[TD]Pitch Framing RAA[/TD]
[TD]Contract[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonathan Lucroy[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]2.9[/TD]
[TD]34.5[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]59.1[/TD]
[TD]$9.5m total in '16 and '17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chris Iannetta[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]0.4[/TD]
[TD]12.6[/TD]
[TD]-17[/TD]
[TD]-6.7[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dioner Navarro[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]1.7[/TD]
[TD]15.7[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]-27.4[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miguel Montero[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[TD]17.4[/TD]
[TD]-14[/TD]
[TD]34.1[/TD]
[TD]$30m total in '16 and '17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Avila[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]1.9[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]-7.6[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Wieters[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]90[/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[TD]20.5[/TD]
[TD]-18[/TD]
[TD]-19.2[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A. J. Pierzynski[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]-20[/TD]
[TD]-23.4[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brayan Pena[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]84[/TD]
[TD]0.3[/TD]
[TD]4.6[/TD]
[TD]-6[/TD]
[TD]-4.7[/TD]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A. J. Ellis[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]1.6[/TD]
[TD]18.4[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]-31.1[/TD]
[TD]Arb elig ($4.25 in '15) Non-tender?[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Conclusions:
  • I was surprised at the strength of Lucroy's defense. I'm concerned about acquisition cost on him, but very solid player.
  • I continue to think Iannetta and Navarro are the best FA targets.
  • Wieters has had some injury issues the past few years, but he looks worse on paper than I had anticipated.
 
A solid group of veterans, most of whom can provide the grit, veteran leadership, clutchness and maturity that the Braves value so highly, especially in their catchers. There is no one player in the list that provides the "long-term" solution at catcher but most can help us be a palatable team in 2016 and 2017. If we are to improve in 2016 and 2017, however, the improvement will have to come via other positions. I think we mostly look to hold serve at catcher, where AJ, Lavernway and Bethancourt have given us a combined 1.8 WAR this season.
 
I'd go for Lucroy which I think they will given their interest in him already. That would give us a few years to find another solution. Hopefully we can sign Guttierez on the international market next year.
 
Unless CB is used in a trade, I imagine the catching position will be exactly as it is today.

Some other trade options who could be long term solutions are Susac (blocked by Posey) and Plawecki (blocked by d'Arnaud).
 
One of the things that works in our favor is that several of the free agents are having poor seasons in 2016 relative to their baselines: Iannetta, Wieters, Avila, Navarro.

Pierzynski on the other hand is having a great season at the plate relative to his recent baseline. I'm always leery about signing free agents coming off seasons like that.

The challenge will be trying to figure out which of the guys having a poor season has the best chance of rebounding to his previous baseline.

With Iannetta a combination of a low BABIP (.223) and a strikeout rate that has trended up to a career high (26%) have combined to depress his offensive numbers. The trend and level of the strikeout rate is a red flag for me.

With Avila, there is an injury history involving concussions. His strikeout rate has risen to over 30% the past two seasons. So he has two red flags against him.

Navarro walks less than Iannetta and Avila but also strikes out less (15.6% this year, just a little on the high side compared to recent seasons). His WAR number is down this year, but mostly because he is now a backup after the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin.

I think of the three, Navarro is the best bet.

What about Wieters? He has not had a good return from the TJ surgery. His strikeout rate has spiked to 25.7%, well above anything seen in prior years. He was an elite catcher before the injury and in Scott Boras he has an agent who will probably not accept a long-term deal that doesn't give significant weight to his pre-injury production. Boras has been creative about getting clients in similar situations pillow contracts and other deals that allow his clients to benefit from a rebound season. This makes it less likely that we can get Wieters on a bargain multi-year deal.

Bottom line is that Navarro is probably our best bet. I would offer him a 2 year deal at 6-7M per year with an option year. If he can give us 1-5-2.0 WAR, which is what I would expect from him over the course of the next two or three seasons, it would be money well spent.

Iannetta is stronger than Navarro defensively and would be my Plan B. I think he will cost a little more than Navarro.

Plan C would be Pierzynski on a one-year deal.

I'm leaving out of this analysis the options on the trade market. It is harder to assess those given the lack of information about what their current teams would want in return. I am not in principle opposed to trading for a catcher, whether old or young. I do think that guys like Navarro and Iannetta will go for reasonable prices.
 
Someone I'd like to see us take a look at in trade is Welington Castillo, who ended up on Arizona this year after trades from the Cubs and Seattle. I know little about his defense and game calling, but he's shown well above average pop for a catcher this year. 28 this year, 29 next year.

Still arby eligible in 2016 and 2017.
 
NYCBrave said:
Someone I'd like to see us take a look at in trade is Welington Castillo, who ended up on Arizona this year after trades from the Cubs and Seattle. I know little about his defense and game calling, but he's shown well above average pop for a catcher this year. 28 this year, 29 next year.

Still arby eligible in 2016 and 2017.
Click to expand...

NYCBrave I've said the same thing. He's got Hernandez (rule 5 pick this year) Gosewisch and O'Brien behind him in AZ (they also have Salty) which could make him available.
 
nsacpi said:
One of the things that works in our favor is that several of the free agents are having poor seasons in 2016 relative to their baselines: Iannetta, Wieters, Avila, Navarro.

Pierzynski on the other hand is having a great season at the plate relative to his recent baseline. I'm always leery about signing free agents coming off seasons like that.

The challenge will be trying to figure out which of the guys having a poor season has the best chance of rebounding to his previous baseline.

With Iannetta a combination of a low BABIP (.223) and a strikeout rate that has trended up to a career high (26%) have combined to depress his offensive numbers. The trend and level of the strikeout rate is a red flag for me.

With Avila, there is an injury history involving concussions. His strikeout rate has risen to over 30% the past two seasons. So he has two red flags against him.

Navarro walks less than Iannetta and Avila but also strikes out less (15.6% this year, just a little on the high side compared to recent seasons). His WAR number is down this year, but mostly because he is now a backup after the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin.

I think of the three, Navarro is the best bet.

What about Wieters? He has not had a good return from the TJ surgery. His strikeout rate has spiked to 25.7%, well above anything seen in prior years. He was an elite catcher before the injury and in Scott Boras he has an agent who will probably not accept a long-term deal that doesn't give significant weight to his pre-injury production. Boras has been creative about getting clients in similar situations pillow contracts and other deals that allow his clients to benefit from a rebound season. This makes it less likely that we can get Wieters on a bargain multi-year deal.

Bottom line is that Navarro is probably our best bet. I would offer him a 2 year deal at 6-7M per year with an option year. If he can give us 1-5-2.0 WAR, which is what I would expect from him over the course of the next two or three seasons, it would be money well spent.

Iannetta is stronger than Navarro defensively and would be my Plan B. I think he will cost a little more than Navarro.

Plan C would be Pierzynski on a one-year deal.

I'm leaving out of this analysis the options on the trade market. It is harder to assess those given the lack of information about what their current teams would want in return. I am not in principle opposed to trading for a catcher, whether old or young. I do think that guys like Navarro and Iannetta will go for reasonable prices.
Click to expand...

Nice analysis. Hard to argue with this plan.

I've been working under the assumption that Wieters would get a QO, but I'm beginning to wonder after taking a closer look at his work. If he's doesn't cost a draft pick and is looking for a one-year deal to re-enter the market, then I'd definitely be interested. Given his ties to Atlanta, it could be a fit.
 
NYCBrave said:
Someone I'd like to see us take a look at in trade is Welington Castillo, who ended up on Arizona this year after trades from the Cubs and Seattle. I know little about his defense and game calling, but he's shown well above average pop for a catcher this year. 28 this year, 29 next year.

Still arby eligible in 2016 and 2017.
Click to expand...

Not a bad option. Especially when the trade partner is Dave Stewart. His pitch framing stats aren't great, but some of the other defensive numbers look good.
 
Another name to consider and he broke onto the scene this year is Cubs prospect Willson Contreras. With Montero and Schwarber already in the fold Contreras could be available. He made the switch to catcher in 2012 from third base and has blossomed behind the plate. Really good defensively and his bat is coming around and could be above average for the catcher position.
 
I wonder if the Pirates have moved on from Tony Sanchez. Probably has a limited ceiling, but may be worth a flyer.
 
Another FA catching option I had overlooked previously is Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He was DFA'd by Florida this year, passed through waivers, and then signed for the minimum by ARI. So he will again be a FA in2016, though the Marlins will be paying him $8m to play for someone else. As a FA, he will still go to the "highest bidder", but instead of the most $ he will be seeking the best opportunity for playing time. He hits RHP well, but is a below average defender by most accounts. It's an interesting option that I think the Braves should at least look into.
 
Ianetta is a good buy low option. Him coupled with AJ or CB would probably get the Braves the same production as this year.
 
blueagleace1 said:
Another name to consider and he broke onto the scene this year is Cubs prospect Willson Contreras. With Montero and Schwarber already in the fold Contreras could be available. He made the switch to catcher in 2012 from third base and has blossomed behind the plate. Really good defensively and his bat is coming around and could be above average for the catcher position.
Click to expand...

Contreras would be my preference, but I'm not sure the Cubs would be willing to let him go.
 
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