Mallex Smith

[striker42]

Don't look now but Smith is heating up in AAA. He got off to a dreadful start but has steadily improved. He's hit .313 over 48 ABs in his last 12 games. He's stolen 8 bases in that time and only been caught once. He's posted 4 BBs and 6 strikeouts in the same span. If I've actually counted correctly, that should give him a .365 OBP over those 12 games.

I think he needs more time but he should be given plenty of ABs in ST and we should see him at some point next season.

 

[thethe]

All he does is continue to get on base and then steal some more. I'll take that at the big league level.

 

[sturg33]

I'm not convinced... think he strikes out too much to be a productive ML leaguer. But I'd be fine with giving him some ABs in September to see how he handles

 

[striker42]

He's improved his K rate this year and got it down to about 16% this season from over 18% last season. His BB% this year is a little under 9%. If he had a K% of 16% in the majors with a 9% BB rate, he'd be a little above average in those figures. If he has an 18% K rate he'd be right at average. It's not like he's striking out a quarter of his times to the plate.

He actually reminds me a lot of Dee Gordon.

 

[nsacpi]

This is a good way to look at it, keeping in mind the likelihood of some deterioration in the walk and strikeou rates when a hitter reaches the majors. The last part of the hitting equation is power and he would be below average there.

He's improved his K rate this year and got it down to about 16% this season from over 18% last season. His BB% this year is a little under 9%. If he had a K% of 16% in the majors with a 9% BB rate, he'd be a little above average in those figures. If he has an 18% K rate he'd be right at average. It's not like he's striking out a quarter of his times to the plate.

He actually reminds me a lot of Dee Gordon.

 

[weso1]

I'm not convinced... think he strikes out too much to be a productive ML leaguer. But I'd be fine with giving him some ABs in September to see how he handles

He k's a bit less than Michael Bourn did in the minors.

 

[gilesfan]

He actually reminds me a lot of Dee Gordon.

Is this considered a good thing or a bad thing? Granted, it would be nice to have the 2015 version of Gordon in the lineup and 2014 would be acceptable, but overall, he's been underwhelming. It will be interesting to see how Mallex translates to the majors; he's got less power than Gordon. If he can improve on his defense and put up .280/.340/.350, he can play.

 

[dak]

Curious if anyone has seen him defensively this year or has seen a recent scouting report on his defense. Coming into this year, many of the scouting reports suggested that he may not be able to stick in CF. He's obviously got the speed to cover a lot of ground, but there were concerns about his reads and routes. Similar to the situation we currently have w/ Maybin, his value to the team declines considerably if he can't play a consistently average CF.

 

[weso1]

I think his absolute ceiling is somewhere in between Bourn and Lofton. I know that's quite a range there between good player and Hall of Fame player (That's right I got Lofton in the Hall).

 

[striker42]

Is this considered a good thing or a bad thing? Granted, it would be nice to have the 2015 version of Gordon in the lineup and 2014 would be acceptable, but overall, he's been underwhelming. It will be interesting to see how Mallex translates to the majors; he's got less power than Gordon. If he can improve on his defense and put up .280/.340/.350, he can play.

Probably a good thing. Mallex has walked more than Gordon did in the minors. Gordon never broke double digits in his BB% until his third year in AAA.

I do think Gordon is going to regress some. He's not going to maintain a .388 BAPIP. I think 2014 Gordon is more the real Gordon.

If Mallex can become 2014 Dee Gordon with more walks, I'll be very, very happy. I think a .280/.340/.350 line isn't out of the question. Mallex's hitting tool seems to be legit and he's always shown he's willing to take a walk (his recent time in AAA excepted and even that looks to be turning around).

Personally I don't care as much about his power. If he's getting on base at a .340-.350 clip and swiping 40+ bags a year at the top of the order, I'm fine.

 

[Garmel]

Since moving to Gwinnett Mallex has gotten his K rate down to 14.4%. At AA it was at 17.1% and 18.4 at A+. Baby steps in the right direction.

 

[Garmel]

Curious if anyone has seen him defensively this year or has seen a recent scouting report on his defense. Coming into this year, many of the scouting reports suggested that he may not be able to stick in CF. He's obviously got the speed to cover a lot of ground, but there were concerns about his reads and routes. Similar to the situation we currently have w/ Maybin, his value to the team declines considerably if he can't play a consistently average CF.

His defensive range factor at CF at Gwinnett is 3.00. Pretty good but it is a SSS.

 

[Enscheff]

I think he will end up being just like Jace...a decent option as long as he is cheap. There is significant value in a guy playing CF or 2B that can put up a 700 OPS if he is playing for peanuts. Once guys like Mallex and Jace start to cost $5M, they immediately become non-tender and/or trade candidates.

 

[nsacpi]

I think he will end up being just like Jace...a decent option as long as he is cheap. There is significant value in a guy playing CF or 2B that can put up a 700 OPS if he is playing for peanuts. Once guys like Mallex and Jace start to cost $5M, they immediately become non-tender and/or trade candidates.

Play them while cheap. If they develop, keep them through the arb years. I think that's a good recipe for guys like Jace and Mallex.

 

[smootness]

I think he will end up being just like Jace...a decent option as long as he is cheap. There is significant value in a guy playing CF or 2B that can put up a 700 OPS if he is playing for peanuts. Once guys like Mallex and Jace start to cost $5M, they immediately become non-tender and/or trade candidates.

I agree. I've always thought Bourn was the best comparison for Mallex, and Bourn became about as good as he could have been. If Mallex gives us 1-2 WAR for a few years, that will be just fine.

 

[striker42]

I think he will end up being just like Jace...a decent option as long as he is cheap. There is significant value in a guy playing CF or 2B that can put up a 700 OPS if he is playing for peanuts. Once guys like Mallex and Jace start to cost $5M, they immediately become non-tender and/or trade candidates.

Mallex's speed makes him a bit different. If he's stealing 40 bases with a .340 OBP then he's very valuable.

 

[weso1]

Mallex's speed makes him a bit different. If he's stealing 40 bases with a .340 OBP then he's very valuable.

Yeah you're talking about maybe an extra 1 - 1.5 oWar just because of his speed.

 

[smootness]

Now seems like a good time to check out reasonable expected WAR from the pieces we currently have for next year, just to look at what we might need to add to try to compete. I would say a reasonable range would look something like this:

Freeman: 3-6 WAR
Simmons: 2-5 WAR
Peterson: 1-2 WAR
Markakis: 1.5-2.5 WAR
Bethancourt: 1-2 WAR if he hits a little better than he did this year at the MLB level
Olivera: ? Let's just throw out a 2-4 WAR range
Maybin: about 1 WAR
Mallex: optimistically 1-2 WAR

So you're looking at a range of about 12.5-24.5 WAR for your position players, probably falling somewhere a little under the 20 WAR mark.

Miller: 2-4 WAR
Teheran: 2-4 WAR assuming a bounce-back to his form from the previous 2 years
Wisler: 1-2.5 WAR

That gives you a range of about 5-10.5 WAR from those 3 starters, probably falling somewhere around 7-8. So that leaves you with something like 75 wins as a reasonable projection for next year's team. You could have everything go right and sit more like 80 from this roster, or you could have things like Teheran giving you nothing or injuries that could drop you back to under 70.

But reasonably, you're probably looking for about 10 WAR to give yourself a reasonable chance to make a run at a WC spot; that's not easy to do, but it's doable. If you went and used your available money to get Heyward, used Mallex in CF, and traded Maybin, then signed somebody like Kazmir for the starting rotation, and you're probably adding 7-8 WAR to your team with those moves, which gets you pretty close.

If you trade Teheran and a prospect or two for a good young bat (still not getting a stud) and use the savings to sign another decent FA SP, that could possibly get you over the top to the kind of range you're looking for.

We're not going to reasonably become a WS contender for 2016, and the only realistic way we add enough again after 2016 to become one by 2017 is if we trade the farm or if a couple guys see significant improvement and give you more than you expect (Simmons getting significantly better with the bat, Mallex becoming a stud defensive CF, etc.). But I think it is doable to get you into WC contention for the next 2 years while you wait on some more of the talent to progress and graduate.

 

[nsacpi]

Now seems like a good time to check out reasonable expected WAR from the pieces we currently have for next year, just to look at what we might need to add to try to compete. I would say a reasonable range would look something like this:

Freeman: 3-6 WAR
Simmons: 2-5 WAR
Peterson: 1-2 WAR
Markakis: 1.5-2.5 WAR
Bethancourt: 1-2 WAR if he hits a little better than he did this year at the MLB level
Olivera: ? Let's just throw out a 2-4 WAR range
Maybin: about 1 WAR
Mallex: optimistically 1-2 WAR

So you're looking at a range of about 12.5-24.5 WAR for your position players, probably falling somewhere a little under the 20 WAR mark.

Miller: 2-4 WAR
Teheran: 2-4 WAR assuming a bounce-back to his form from the previous 2 years
Wisler: 1-2.5 WAR

That gives you a range of about 5-10.5 WAR from those 3 starters, probably falling somewhere around 7-8. So that leaves you with something like 75 wins as a reasonable projection for next year's team. You could have everything go right and sit more like 80 from this roster, or you could have things like Teheran giving you nothing or injuries that could drop you back to under 70.

But reasonably, you're probably looking for about 10 WAR to give yourself a reasonable chance to make a run at a WC spot; that's not easy to do, but it's doable. If you went and used your available money to get Heyward, used Mallex in CF, and traded Maybin, then signed somebody like Kazmir for the starting rotation, and you're probably adding 7-8 WAR to your team with those moves, which gets you pretty close.

If you trade Teheran and a prospect or two for a good young bat (still not getting a stud) and use the savings to sign another decent FA SP, that could possibly get you over the top to the kind of range you're looking for.

We're not going to reasonably become a WS contender for 2016, and the only realistic way we add enough again after 2016 to become one by 2017 is if we trade the farm or if a couple guys see significant improvement and give you more than you expect (Simmons getting significantly better with the bat, Mallex becoming a stud defensive CF, etc.). But I think it is doable to get you into WC contention for the next 2 years while you wait on some more of the talent to progress and graduate.

I think your math is about right. 75 wins based upon what we currently have. With upgrades in left and catcher, we can add maybe a total of 4 more wins. That gets you to 79. To be a wild card contender we need to project to about 85 wins. Given we have not accounted for anything from 2 members of the starting rotation and the bullpen I think we are about there, even if we sign a mid-rotation type rather than an ace.

 

[smootness]

I think your math is about right. 75 wins based upon what we currently have. With upgrades in left and catcher, we can add maybe a total of 4 more wins. That gets you to 79. To be a wild card contender we need to project to about 85 wins. Given we have not accounted for anything from 2 members of the starting rotation and the bullpen I think we are about there, even if we sign a mid-rotation type rather than an ace.

Yeah, the bullpen and bench will obviously come into play. I would imagine, without looking at numbers, that the bench will usually get you 0-1 WAR overall, so that won't matter much. But a pretty good bullpen can get you probably around 3 WAR, so you may be right. I just hope we can get to WC contention level and be happy with that without giving away much on the farm.