Padres Signing James Shields

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Cotillo reporting that it'll be a four-year deal between $72-$80 Million. And so ends one phase of free agency.
 
rico43 said:
Cotillo reporting that it'll be a four-year deal between $72-$80 Million. And so ends one phase of free agency.
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Not sure he ever really earned the "Big Game" moniker, but he was pretty great with Tampa Bay for a couple seasons, and should pitch pretty well—even as he continues his natural decline—in San Diego's pitchers' haven. Hell, if he stays relatively healthy, he may even perform well enough there to earn a few bucks at the end of this contract, throwing as a veteran fourth- or fifth-starter somewhere like today's Tim Hudson.

Since San Diego's apparently going for it, this really made sense for them, too—especially if the contract ends up being at the low-end of that "$72-$80 Million" range.
 
I've always liked Shields. Solid innings-eater who has stayed healthy. He's not a top-of-the-rotation guy and I agree that the "big game" moniker doesn't really fit, but I think he's a good investment for San Diego.
 
jpx7 said:
Not sure he ever really earned the "Big Game" moniker, but he was pretty great with Tampa Bay for a couple seasons, and should pitch pretty well—even as he continues his natural decline—in San Diego's pitchers' haven. Hell, if he stays relatively healthy, he may even perform well enough there to earn a few bucks at the end of this contract, throwing as a veteran fourth- or fifth-starter somewhere like today's Tim Hudson.

Since San Diego's apparently going for it, this really made sense for them, too—especially if the contract ends up being at the low-end of that "$72-$80 Million" range.
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About 7M per projected win. The price of pitching on a $/projected win basis was significantly cheaper than hitting this off-season, a reversal of last off-season.
 
nsacpi said:
About 7M per projected win. The price of pitching on a $/projected win basis was significantly cheaper than hitting this off-season, a reversal of last off-season.
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The age/# of innings factor led to the decrease in money as well as the lack of adequate suitors. Its never just in a vacuum.
 
He will pitch well there for sure. IF they ever figure out a way to replace their 4 infielders, they might be a-ok.
 
nsacpi said:
About 7M per projected win. The price of pitching on a $/projected win basis was significantly cheaper than hitting this off-season, a reversal of last off-season.
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And this will continue, imo. You can find plenty of decent arms that can give you a 3 ERA. Finding someone available with a pulse than can hit is difficult.
 
thethe said:
The age/# of innings factor led to the decrease in money as well as the lack of adequate suitors. Its never just in a vacuum.
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This is not an issue related specifically to Shields or older pitchers. Older hitters like Victor Martinez and Russell Martin did ridiculously well this off-season.
 
gilesfan said:
And this will continue, imo. You can find plenty of decent arms that can give you a 3 ERA. Finding someone available with a pulse than can hit is difficult.
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Every off-season is different, but I suspect you are right that this is likely to continue for a few more years. Looks like last off-season might be the last one in a while where pitching is at a premium. Our finding Harang off the scrap heap is exhibit A for not overpaying when it comes to pitching.
 
nsacpi said:
This is not an issue related specifically to Shields or older pitchers. Older hitters like Victor Martinez and Russell Martin did ridiculously well this off-season.
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Victor Martinez was another full year removed from his injury. His projected WAR numbers are not a true depiction of what he will produce moving forward. Thats the problem with projections in that they can't really capture all variables. His steamer is 2.1 WAR next year. As long as he is healthy I'd wager that he far exceeds that number.

With Martin they backloaded that deal when revenues will be more flush. I haven't seen Martin play that much but that feels like an overpay. But in terms of his projection wouldn't he not be getting paid a lot per WAR?
 
Martin is coming off a huge performance at a postion of offensive scarcity making him the unicorn of this offseason. Catchers that can hit get paid what he did. Always have.
 
thethe said:
Victor Martinez was another full year removed from his injury. His projected WAR numbers are not a true depiction of what he will produce moving forward. Thats the problem with projections in that they can't really capture all variables. His steamer is 2.1 WAR next year. As long as he is healthy I'd wager that he far exceeds that number.

With Martin they backloaded that deal when revenues will be more flush. I haven't seen Martin play that much but that feels like an overpay. But in terms of his projection wouldn't he not be getting paid a lot per WAR?
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Martinez projected WAR is low because he's a DH and his defense is pathetic. He's projected to hit .308/.375/.483. But, while he can hit, he's old and can't field.

Fans projected similar numbers for him .314/.378/.478 but they project him to play 142 games, which is a pipedream.
 
Isn't "Big Game" because he is a huge James Worthy fan?

Anyways, solid signing for SD, should be a good fit.
 
gilesfan said:
Martinez projected WAR is low because he's a DH and his defense is pathetic. He's projected to hit .308/.375/.483. But, while he can hit, he's old and can't field.

Fans projected similar numbers for him .314/.378/.478 but they project him to play 142 games, which is a pipedream.
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Thats fair but didn't his defensive numbers bring down his overall WAR numbers the last few years or does being a DH automatically give you negative defensive WAR?
 
BRule said:
Isn't "Big Game" because he is a huge James Worthy fan?

Anyways, solid signing for SD, should be a good fit.
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Great innings eater and in that ballpark he is going to do real well. Padres are legit contenders next year and if ownership is willing to spend money to keep Upton then they could really have a nice 4-5 year run with that core.
 
thethe said:
Thats fair but didn't his defensive numbers bring down his overall WAR numbers the last few years or does being a DH automatically give you negative defensive WAR?
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His last six seasons, his WAR has been:

0.9
3.9
3.5
2.5
0.9
4.4

Last year was his worst defensive season, but was amazing at the plate . His projection is due to a lot of factors as I said.....gradually piss poor defense, age, projected missed time, and natural regression of a 36 year old off of a career season.
 
thethe said:
Great innings eater and in that ballpark he is going to do real well. Padres are legit contenders next year and if ownership is willing to spend money to keep Upton then they could really have a nice 4-5 year run with that core.
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Contenders for what?
 
If Kemps second half last year was for real then they will absolutely be contenders to win a WS.
 
It's a good deal. Most teams in the league would (should?) be interested in Shields at that price.

The last season will probably be ugly, and any time you have a guy with that much mileage on his arm you have a right to be a little wary. But the dude's a metronome, and Petco should mask any decline for a while.
 
thethe said:
If Kemps second half last year was for real then they will absolutely be contenders to win a WS.
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Have you seen their infield overall or their outfield defense? They are slightly better than .500 and will finish 10 games behind LA.
 
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