Poll: Direction...

T

TheBravos

Boras' Client
Let's say June 1st rolls around we still look about the same as we do now...what then?:

1. Hey, slow down buddy...tap the brakes. We will pull out of this. We should wait until the trade deadline AT LEAST, before we make any moves (if at all). I like the overall direction....patience!!

2. Scour the ground!! If your name isn't Freddie, you are not safe!! There may be a TON of sellers by the deadline, and we need to get a head start NOW!! Gawd this team sucks!!

3. See ya vets!! Lets go ahead and let some of the young guys pitch and trade the vets now. I think our offense is fine and should keep it the same. Our pitching is horrible, so why not let the young guys learn??

4. No trades yet, but fire Snit and any other coaches to try and turn this suck fest around....it's not the players fault...it's coaching!!!

5. Nothing will change, until we rid ourselves of The John's and their errand boy Coppy...start there!!

Ok....good times
 
I wonder how many more times replacing the hitting coach, pitching coach, bench coach, manager, etc will suffice as sacrificial offerings
 
I am definitely 3, and would gladly do 2 for any great returns. I fear (unlike last year), there will be a a ton of sellers at the deadline this year. So, I doubt there will be very many good to great returns out there.

I think the pitching is so bad...not sure a different coach would matter and I hate changing horses mid stream.
 
3 sounds good, but which guys we gonna use? Replace Garcia, colon, and dickey with wisler, Blair, and sims/Newcomb? I think I'd rather the young guys earn their way up.
 
I am starting to have some questions as to what this new pitching coach has brought to the table. Trying real hard to find improvement in any of the Braves holdovers, and am finding none.
 
Snit won't get fired during the season. Besides, even if it happened, I'd be afraid that something similar to last year would happen with the interim having a hot streak the last 2 months, ruining draft position, and having the players stand behind his back for the overall job.
 
TheBravos said:
I am definitely 3, and would gladly do 2 for any great returns. I fear (unlike last year), there will be a a ton of sellers at the deadline this year. So, I doubt there will be very many good to great returns out there.

I think the pitching is so bad...not sure a different coach would matter and I hate changing horses mid stream.
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Because of this I could see us sneak in and be buyers for long term assets.
 
Told you.

"Could see it right off"

The pitfall of fandom is that fans tend to see what they want to see which is almost always the upside play instead of the downside play. In one of the offseason threads, I went through series by series and predicted the Braves W/L by series based off the schedule that MLB had up at the time. I came up with a losing month every month IIRC.

I'm a Braves fan but I try to look at the team with a critical eye and I just didn't see the improvement that was supposed to be there (and I would love for this post to be "boy, they really did surprise me! I thought they would suck!").

Here's something scary for you: Freeman has been playing at Bonds levels and that won't continue. Kemp has been playing at his AS historical level which is highly unlikely to continue. Flowers is so far over his head he can no longer see his feet. Inciarte is about what he was EXCEPT he's been hitting with unexpected and probably unsustainable power. And Phillips and Markakis are veterans who probably are playing on the high end of the spectrum of where they could be expected to be. Everyone else has either not improved or regressed significantly. So, as all the hitting vets come back to earth, just to maintain their current level of awfulness, they will need Swanson to get hot and Garcia/Peterson to improve.

As for pitching: to me the one real surprise has been the ineffectiveness of Krol. Everything else is about as I expected. I guess, if pushed, I would have to say that Teheran has been a little worse than expected.

The most interesting thing to me is that it appears that the FO had NO IDEA that the park was going to play the way it plays.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Told you.

"Could see it right off"

The pitfall of fandom is that fans tend to see what they want to see which is almost always the upside play instead of the downside play. In one of the offseason threads, I went through series by series and predicted the Braves W/L by series based off the schedule that MLB had up at the time. I came up with a losing month every month IIRC.

I'm a Braves fan but I try to look at the team with a critical eye and I just didn't see the improvement that was supposed to be there (and I would love for this post to be "boy, they really did surprise me! I thought they would suck!").

Here's something scary for you: Freeman has been playing at Bonds levels and that won't continue. Kemp has been playing at his AS historical level which is highly unlikely to continue. Flowers is so far over his head he can no longer see his feet. Inciarte is about what he was EXCEPT he's been hitting with unexpected and probably unsustainable power. And Phillips and Markakis are veterans who probably are playing on the high end of the spectrum of where they could be expected to be. Everyone else has either not improved or regressed significantly. So, as all the hitting vets come back to earth, just to maintain their current level of awfulness, they will need Swanson to get hot and Garcia/Peterson to improve.

As for pitching: to me the one real surprise has been the ineffectiveness of Krol. Everything else is about as I expected. I guess, if pushed, I would have to say that Teheran has been a little worse than expected.

The most interesting thing to me is that it appears that the FO had NO IDEA that the park was going to play the way it plays.
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I'm not surprised either. I was actually afraid we would be average (although my gut told me we would be pretty bad), and be "just" good enough to loose a top 10 pick.

Sunturst Park has screwed the rebuild....all the way around. Think of how many bad moves have been made to give the appearance that the team will be able to compete.

How would they know how the ball would fly until they play games though?
 
TheBravos said:
I'm not surprised either. I was actually afraid we would be average (although my gut told me we would be pretty bad), and be "just" good enough to loose a top 10 pick.

Sunturst Park has screwed to rebuild....all the way around. Think of how many bad moves have been made to give the appearance that the team will be able to compete.

How would they know how the ball would fly until they play games though?
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The rush to compete for the new ballparks has potentially cost them a future All-Star shortstop in rushing Swanson (not saying he will bust but rushing him could have lowered his ceiling), and minimized any potential returns that could have been had for assets like Teheran, Folty, Pen guys, Markakis, etc. The big devaluation is Teheran of course. The Braves could have never gotten for him what the WS got for Sale, but some percentage of that type return would have been nice and been more helpful long term to a real rebuild.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The rush to compete for the new ballparks has potentially cost them a future All-Star shortstop in rushing Swanson (not saying he will bust but rushing him could have lowered his ceiling), and minimized any potential returns that could have been had for assets like Teheran, Folty, Pen guys, Markakis, etc. The big devaluation is Teheran of course. The Braves could have never gotten for him what the WS got for Sale, but some percentage of that type return would have been nice and been more helpful long term to a real rebuild.
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The trade deadline was the perfect storm for Julio. His injury didn't help, but I still feel there were some good offers on the table...I could be wrong.
 
TheBravos said:
The trade deadline was the perfect storm for Julio. His injury didn't help, but I still feel there were some good offers on the table...I could be wrong.
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I guess my answer to the poll question would be #3 but at no hurried pace. You're selling low on Teheran now if you let him go and holding him may improve his stock. If he gets back to a 3-3.5 era by the break and there is a decent market for him, I would pull the trigger. Colon, Dickey, Ramirez, Markakis, Kemp, Flowers, Johnson, Krol, Viz, etc. I would move under the right conditions.

I would have to think about offers for Inciarte and Folty. Folty could be moved but what is his value weighed against potential value? Inciarte probably can't be moved right now due to the recent extension and trade of Mallex.
 
I hate to be the wet blanket, but what "Vets" would any team actually want? The Padres gave away Kemp. Dickey & Colon are at the end of the line. The Reds had to give away Phillips because he didn't want to get dealt. So that basically leaves Markakis, Johnson, & Teheran. Out of that bunch, the only thing we'd get anything back from is Teheran as long as we don't wait too long.

The pitchers are serving some purpose, to eat innings so we don't call up a guy like Wisler or Blair and cook them. Definitely need to be seeing some of the more advanced prospects in the 2nd half though. The first half of the season will be pretty rough.

I would like to take a shot on a star position player in the draft and not get cute with taking a bunch of pitching projects 5 years away. Cubs, Nats, Astros all rebuilt by taking star hitters. Not saying we have to do that in order to win, but it's worked for other teams...
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I guess my answer to the poll question would be #3 but at no hurried pace. You're selling low on Teheran now if you let him go and holding him may improve his stock. If he gets back to a 3-3.5 era by the break and there is a decent market for him, I would pull the trigger. Colon, Dickey, Ramirez, Markakis, Kemp, Flowers, Johnson, Krol, Viz, etc. I would move under the right conditions.

I would have to think about offers for Inciarte and Folty. Folty could be moved but what is his value weighed against potential value? Inciarte probably can't be moved right now due to the recent extension and trade of Mallex.
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If the team is still on a pace to win 64 games on June 1st, chances are very good all of veteran pitchers performed so poorly they will hold almost zero trade value. At that point, the team will be best served letting those guys play out the rest of this dismal season and prevent all the minor league talent from accruing any service time. There is quite literally nothing on the roster with any trade value that the Braves don't want to build around.

Unfortunately, the FO seems to think Markakis and Kemp are part of The Core, so they won't be going anywhere. I'm not sure they will bring back anything worthwhile anyways, and it's not like the Braves need to free up money by trading them away to add a few FA pieces that pushes them over the top. Lastly, there isn't a single player in the system ready to step into either corner OF spot, so just let Kemp and Markakis play out their contracts.

No matter what the record is a couple months from now, the plan shouldn't change. The Core is Freeman, Swanson, Inciarte, Folty and Teheran, so those guys stay at least through 2018 (when Julio has 2 years of control left), and possibly through 2019. Over the next couple seasons, The Core will be supplemented by Albies, then 2-3 of the Allard group, then Acuna, and a couple mid-tier FAs sprinkled in the rotation, C and 3B.

In short...stay the course.
 
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