Pre-Season WS Odds and Win Projections

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Below are the early April Las Vegas World Series odds and over/under win totals for the 2015 MLB season, via RJ Bell of pregame.com:

Washington Nationals 6-1 (93.5 wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 (92.5 wins)

Boston Red Sox 12-1 (85.5 wins)

St. Louis Cardinals 14-1 (88 wins)

Los Angeles Angels 15-1 (88 wins)

Chicago Cubs 16-1 (82 wins)

Seattle Mariners 16-1 (86.5 wins)

Detroit Tigers 18-1 (84.5 wins)

San Diego Padres 20-1 (84.5 wins)

San Francisco Giants 20-1 (83.5 wins)

Oakland Athletics 25-1 (82 wins)

Chicago White Sox 25-1 (81.5 wins)

Baltimore Orioles 25-1 (82.5 wins)

Cleveland Indians 25-1 (84.5 wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates 25-1 (85 wins)

Kansas City Royals 30-1 (80.5 wins)

New York Mets 30-1 (82 wins)

New York Yankees 35-1 (82 wins)

Toronto Blue Jays 35-1 (83 wins)

Miami Marlins 50-1 (81.5 wins)

Cincinnati Reds 60-1 (77.5 wins)

Milwaukee Brewers 70-1 (79 wins)

Texas Rangers 80-1 (75.5 wins)

Tampa Bay Rays 90-1 (79.5 wins)

Atlanta Braves 120-1 (73 wins)

Colorado Rockies 125-1 (72 wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks 125-1 (72.5 wins)

Houston Astros 150-1 (75.5 wins)

Minnesota Twins 250-1 (70.5 wins)

Philadelphia Phillies 500-1 (68 wins)
 
I actually felt that the Twins would be in the playoff race. Can't believe Vegas made the odds that long. Same goes for the Astros. I'm a bit surprised by how well they've done, but they made a lot of positive moves.

I think one always has to remember that the house always wins in Vegas and I see a ton of sucker bets in these odds.
 
There have been some tremendous divergences between pre-season projections and actual performances this year, more than I can remember from past years. The gnats and Twins have been historic in that regard.

The Twins are proof imo that if you are far enough down in the projected win column no amount of pixie dust can get you into the playoffs. And they have gotten several seasons worth of pixie dust.

With the Rangers, I think part of the story there is that there was a huge amount of uncertainty about what they would get from certain players, most notably Prince Fielder. The career season from Moreland hasn't hurt.
 
nsacpi said:
There have been some tremendous divergences between pre-season projections and actual performances this year, more than I can remember from past years. The gnats and Twins have been historic in that regard.

The Twins are proof imo that if you are far enough down in the projected win column no amount of pixie dust can get you into the playoffs. And they have gotten several seasons worth of pixie dust.

With the Rangers, I think part of the story there is that there was a huge amount of uncertainty about what they would get from certain players, most notably Prince Fielder. The career season from Moreland hasn't hurt.
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I don't necessarily see the Twins as a model for the Braves, but both the Twins and the Cubs had a miserable stretch while transforming themselves into contenders this season. Twins invested in a couple of top drawer Latin American prospects, particularly Sano, and have drafted fairly well. It takes time for guys to get their big league chops, which is why I am expecting a little longer climb for the Braves than simply uttering "2017." If there is a surprise with the Twins it's that Ervin Santana hasn't pitched well, Phil Hughes has regressed, and Glen Perkins has been injured. Cubs' rise probably has more pocketbook to it than the Twins, but the good drafting part is similar.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't necessarily see the Twins as a model for the Braves, but both the Twins and the Cubs had a miserable stretch while transforming themselves into contenders this season. Twins invested in a couple of top drawer Latin American prospects, particularly Sano, and have drafted fairly well. It takes time for guys to get their big league chops, which is why I am expecting a little longer climb for the Braves than simply uttering "2017." If there is a surprise with the Twins it's that Ervin Santana hasn't pitched well, Phil Hughes has regressed, and Glen Perkins has been injured. Cubs' rise probably has more pocketbook to it than the Twins, but the good drafting part is similar.
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That and when they traded a really good pitcher, they didn't get back Hector Olivera, they got back Addison Russell.
 
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