Projecting 2018

[Enscheff]

If the Braves make no moves this offseason and just rely on improvements from players on the roster to organically improve the team, here is how I project the 2018 team:

# Pos Player Salary WAR
1 C Flowers $4.00 4
2 1B Freeman $21.00 6
3 2B Albies $0.55 3
4 3B Camargo $0.55 2
5 SS Swanson $0.55 1
6 LF Kemp $18.25 0
7 CF Inciarte $4.70 3
8 RF Markakis $11.00 1

9 SP1 Teheran $8.00 2
10 SP2 Folty $2.70 2
11 SP3 Dickey $8.00 1
12 SP4 Newk $0.55 2
13 SP5 Gohara $0.55 3

14 BN1 M Adams $4.60 3
15 BN2 Rio $0.55
16 BN3 Santana $1.10
17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
18 BN5 Suzuki $3.50

19 BP1 JJ $5.00 2
20 BP2 Viz $3.70
21 BP3 Freeman $1.20
22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $0.80
25 BP7 Wisler $0.55

Total $103.05 83

I expect some fairly heavy regression at the C position (Flower's 4 WAR includes framing and some contribution from Suzuki).

I think Albies will be an above average player at 2B, Swanson will continue to underwhelm at SS, and Camargo should provide glove-first production at 3B that hovers around average.

Freeman should to continue to be a 6 WAR beast.

The OF will continue to be garbage with Inciarte starting into his defensive decline, but still posting a solid 3 WAR.

I project the rotation as a whole to naturally improve from 8.7 WAR in 2017 (#18 in MLB) to ~10 WAR in 2018 (about #15), mainly due to a full season of Gohara and the debuts of Soroka and Allard.

The BP will probably improve from 1.1 WAR in 2017 (#28 in MLB) to ~2 WAR (about #20), almost entirely due to full seasons of Winkler and Minter, as well as some regression by Freeman.

With Adams in the mix, I project the bench to provide another 3 wins.

So with no upgrades made to the roster, I'm looking at an 83 win team at the cost of $103M. Add another 1 WAR from the FA BP upgrades the FO is promising, and that's 84 wins at my projected payroll cap of ~$110M.

Now we are talking about a team worth making additions to! Acuna obviously replaces Kemp (DFA'd, nobody will take any part of him) for a 2 WAR upgrade, bringing us to 86 wins and still $110M.

The question then becomes, do the Braves sitting at 85+ projected wins dump Markakis (I think there will be teams willing to take his whole contract for no return) and use that $11M to bring in a guy like Piscotty, Avi Garcia, or Ozuna for another 1-3 win upgrade? Do they dump Dickey, trade MAdams, and use that money to bring in another SP like Odorizzi or Cobb or Sabathia?

How "all in" should the Braves go this offseason?

 

[nsacpi]

Yeah. 80-85 is about right. I'd like to see someone like Nunez brought in who can play third. Provide some insurance for Camargo and indirectly Swanson.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah. 80-85 is about right. I'd like to see someone like Nunez brought in who can play third. Provide some insurance for Camargo and indirectly Swanson.

If the Braves are going to bring in a guy for 3B, I would like to see them target Suarez if he's made available when Senzel is promoted. Everything I can see about his 2017 breakout looks legit, and I think he could be a 3-4 WAR guy under control for 3 more seasons. He's pretty much the only guy at 3B likely to become available that I would covet.

If the Braves are above .500 at the trade deadline, Camargo has shown he's really just a utility player, and the Reds are looking to sell and make room for Senzel, I would like to see the Braves make a move for Suarez.

 

[Hudson2]

I think they do everything they can to trade Markakis and Kemp. Markakis won't be impossible to move and if we eat say 70% of Kemps money then I think an AL team would take him. The White Sox said they'd take on a bad contract to get a good prospect. I'd see if attaching Allard would entice them to take him. Replacing Kemp or Markakis with Acuna would be a huge win. That would leave some wiggle room for either Odorizzi or JD Martinez.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

I think they do everything they can to trade Markakis and Kemp. Markakis won't be impossible to move and if we are say 70% of Kemps money then I think an AL team would take him. The White Sox said they'd take on a bad contract to get a good prospect. I'd see if attaching Allard would entice them to take him. Replacing Kemp or Markakis with Acuna would be a huge win. That would leave some wiggle room for either Odorizzi or JD Martinez.

Attaching Allard to Kemp would really hurt.

 

[Hudson2]

Attaching Allard to Kemp would really hurt.

It would suck but getting rid of Kemp would be huge for us moving forward. Of course the better the prospect the more they'd have to eat.

 

[CyYoung31]

I 100% agree with your analysis. Good work.

 

[Knucksie]

It would suck but getting rid of Kemp would be huge for us moving forward. Of course the better the prospect the more they'd have to eat.

Mini version of Bossman Jr. BJ had to gone at all costs. Then there's been constant carping about attaching Kimbrel because there was no other way.

 

[Enscheff]

I hope the FO does not compound the Kemp problem, which compounded the HO problem, by spending prospect capital to get rid of him.

Just DFA him if he needs to go. Let's stop letting this trade sequence continue to cost the Braves future assets.

 

[nsacpi]

It would suck but getting rid of Kemp would be huge for us moving forward. Of course the better the prospect the more they'd have to eat.

Releasing him would be a much better than attaching Allard.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

I hope the FO does not compound the Kemp problem, which compounded the HO problem, by spending prospect capital to get rid of him.

Just DFA him if he needs to go. Let's stop letting this trade sequence continue to cost the Braves future assets.

Yes, although I’m hoping we can at least get another team to pay like 4-5 million per year for his remaining contract, valuing him as a less than 1 win player with offensive upside as a DH.

 

[Skeeter31]

Releasing him would be a much better than attaching Allard.

Exactly. Why would we want to lose a prospect like Allard just to get 30% of Kemp’s salary off the books? Unless attaching Allard could actually bring us something useful in return, I’d much rather just DFA Kemp and move on.

 

[Nerfherders]

Don't forget about Acuna.

 

[Southcack77]

Exactly. Why would we want to lose a prospect like Allard just to get 30% of Kemp’s salary off the books? Unless attaching Allard could actually bring us something useful in return, I’d much rather just DFA Kemp and move on.

I think you could get several million dollars of salary relief without attaching anything.

I don't see why you pay prospects to get rid of him, but if you did that team needs to be eating all of Kemp's deal for you.

Personally, unless you are going to make a huge splash somehow, I don't know why you would force this. If you can't get anyone to eat any of his money, just bring him back and play him semi-regularly with defensive subs when appropriate. He's not a total loss at the plate yet and if you manage him correctly, I think he could possibly help more than he hurt.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I hope the FO does not compound the Kemp problem, which compounded the HO problem, by spending prospect capital to get rid of him.

Just DFA him if he needs to go. Let's stop letting this trade sequence continue to cost the Braves future assets.

I don't see why they would DFA him. It would make more sense to me for them to move Matt Adams and replace him on the bench with Kemp OR keep both Adams and Kemp on the bench (L/R) and either cut the pen short to 6 or let Santana go.

Kemp's bat is fine for that type role. He can still hit some. And the Braves are paying him either way. The key would be that someone needs to tell Snitker that under no circumstances does Kemp play the field outside of blowout losses.

But for me I think it's premature for what you've done even though it is good and useful. I think the path forward is at a crossroads depending on what MLB decides to do and who ultimately becomes GM and what the payroll will really be.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think you could get several million dollars of salary relief without attaching anything.

I don't see why you pay prospects to get rid of him, but if you did that team needs to be eating all of Kemp's deal for you.

Personally, unless you are going to make a huge splash somehow, I don't know why you would force this. If you can't get anyone to eat any of his money, just bring him back and play him semi-regularly with defensive subs when appropriate. He's not a total loss at the plate yet and if you manage him correctly, I think he could possibly help more than he hurt.

I still think there is a possibility of moving Kemp IF the Braves are willing to take a different contract back. I look at Detroit. They are rebuilding. Maybe you talk them into a swap of Kemp for Jordan Zimmerman and $12.5M. Zimmerman is owed $24, $25, $25 while the Braves owe Kemp something like $18, $18. So, the Braves decline Dickey's option which saves them $7.5M and in 2018 they net a savings of $1.5M, in 2019 Zimmerman costs them $7.5M but they probably veteran buy that anyway. In 2020 when Kemp would be gone but the Braves would be on the hook for $12.5M under the conditions of the deal outlined above. For Detroit, they net out a savings of $20M over the lifetime of the deal and clear Kemp a year before they would have cleared Zimmerman. For the Braves, they get their veteran starter that has a NL history and that they loved in the past. He has potential upside from where he is now. He fits the bill of veteran rotation stabilizer and he costs the Braves $6M in 2018 (down from what they are considering giving Dickey), $7M in 2019 and $12.5M in 2020 (assuming they are smart enough to earmark the $12.5M they get from Detroit.

To me, that's the best kind of deal you can hope for and would be better than just saying "we are going to eat $36M."

 

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I still think there is a possibility of moving Kemp IF the Braves are willing to take a different contract back. I look at Detroit. They are rebuilding. Maybe you talk them into a swap of Kemp for Jordan Zimmerman and $12.5M. Zimmerman is owed $24, $25, $25 while the Braves owe Kemp something like $18, $18. So, the Braves decline Dickey's option which saves them $7.5M and in 2018 they net a savings of $1.5M, in 2019 Zimmerman costs them $7.5M but they probably veteran buy that anyway. In 2020 when Kemp would be gone but the Braves would be on the hook for $12.5M under the conditions of the deal outlined above. For Detroit, they net out a savings of $20M over the lifetime of the deal and clear Kemp a year before they would have cleared Zimmerman. For the Braves, they get their veteran starter that has a NL history and that they loved in the past. He has potential upside from where he is now. He fits the bill of veteran rotation stabilizer and he costs the Braves $6M in 2018 (down from what they are considering giving Dickey), $7M in 2019 and $12.5M in 2020 (assuming they are smart enough to earmark the $12.5M they get from Detroit.

To me, that's the best kind of deal you can hope for and would be better than just saying "we are going to eat $36M."

We need to stop swapping bad contracts for bad contracts specially we are the ones finishing with the worse one. We had Bj Upton and we trade him to move that bad contract. Then we trade Chris Johnson for another 2 bad contracts. Then we get Hector Oliveira and we swap him for Matt Kemp. Now you want to add a additional year of another bad contract.

 

[Southcack77]

We need to stop swapping bad contracts for bad contracts specially we are the ones finishing with the worse one. We had Bj Upton and we trade him to move that bad contract. Then we trade Chris Johnson for another 2 bad contracts. Then we get Hector Oliveira and we swap him for Matt Kemp. Now you want to add a additional year of another bad contract.

I think bad contract swaps can make sense if there is some value left in the players being swapped or it can reduce the length of exposure.

I don't have any problem with the Chris Johnson deal as I think Atlanta shortened their exposure and got back the more likely assets that could have themselves been flipped. As it was, things went about expected and it was not really a loss or a major win for Atlanta. I guess it let them acquire someone like Dickey this past year.

If the Braves were overpaying for someone that could actually help make the team better instead of Kemp, I guess I would be ok with it. Verlander being the deal I was most hypothetically ok with. Not sure Zimmerman fits the same bill. But there is probably some deal out there that would make sense maybe.

 

[NYCBrave]

If the Braves are going to bring in a guy for 3B, I would like to see them target Suarez if he's made available when Senzel is promoted. Everything I can see about his 2017 breakout looks legit, and I think he could be a 3-4 WAR guy under control for 3 more seasons. He's pretty much the only guy at 3B likely to become available that I would covet.

If the Braves are above .500 at the trade deadline, Camargo has shown he's really just a utility player, and the Reds are looking to sell and make room for Senzel, I would like to see the Braves make a move for Suarez.

I'd love to get Suarez. It never really felt like the Reds valued him properly, usually slating him at 6th in the lineup, although they did have some bats.

I followed him this year, he kind of got into a slide during the summer months following a hot April, but rebounded in September. I think this year could be the year it puts it all together and is consistent the whole season. The magical age 27 season.

 

[Enscheff]

I'd love to get Suarez. It never really felt like the Reds valued him properly, usually slating him at 6th in the lineup, although they did have some bats.

I followed him this year, he kind of got into a slide during the summer months following a hot April, but rebounded in September. I think this year could be the year it puts it all together and is consistent the whole season. The magical age 27 season.

Suarez' xwOBA by year have been:
2015: 0.280
2016: 0.307
2017: 0.350

There have been 14 seasons of 400+ ABs by Reds hitters the last 2 years, and Suarez ranked as the 5th and 6th least lucky seasons in that group based on xwOBA. That tells me his production is legit.

In the upper minors he ran a BB% in the 8.8%-11.5% range, and a K% in the 17%-22% range. His 2017 rates of 13.3% and 23.3% fall into the range I expect from a hitter entering his peak.

His 2017 exit velocity on line drives was 92.8 mph, which is just slightly below average for all players who hit 100+ line drives last season. He hits the ball hard enough to support a legit .800+ OPS.

His BABIP the last 2 seasons was .304 and .309, which are both perfectly sustainable rates.

According to UZR/150, he is one of those bad SS but good 3B defenders, similar to Camargo. He should continue to be a plus defensively.

Suarez looks like a legit 3-4 win guy at 3B who has made real improvements as he's matured. He is going into his age 26 season and has 3 years of control remaining. If he is available, he is the guy I would like to see the Braves target. He's the only realistic option I've seen that would make me want to skip giving Camargo his shot.