Prospects in April: 5 Biggest Risers and Fallers

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
The first month of the season is almost over. Who has improved their prospect stock the most and who has fallen the most.

On the Rise:

1) Jose Peraza-.330 average, not much power but 12 steals. Making a position switch to second. It is becoming a close call as to whether he or Lucas Sims is our #1 prospect.

2) Victor Reyes-has been promoted fairly aggressively and has handled it by hitting .326 so far. Not much power, but it should come as his frame fills out. Definitely in our 10 ten now, maybe top 5. His emergence raises the question of whether we want to start planning for his taking over a corner outfield spot in 3 or 4 years. Not too early to think about given looming contract decisions to be made about Heyward and Justin Upton.

3) Elmer Reyes-fringe prospect has improved his stock quite a bit the past two years. Start to this season was delayed by a minor injury, but has hit .372, while showing more extra base power than in the past. Projects as Ramiro Pena's eventual replacement as our backup SS/utility infielder.

4) Cody Martin--generating very nice strikeout numbers in AAA. Useful pitcher to have around given he can fill in either as the fifth guy in a rotation or in the pen.

5) Shae Simmons--dominating in AA.

Fallers:

1) Josh Elander: Disappointing start given he already had several months in High A under his belt.

2) Christian Bethancourt: Mired at the Mendoza line. Little power. Very few walks.

3) Johan Camargo: Struggling in Rome after a nice season in Danville.

4) Luis Vasquez: Disappointing so far after a stellar winter league season.

5) Robby Hefflinger: AA pitching has exposed the holes in his swing.

A couple dark horses with nice starts to the season: Tyler Tewell and Williams Perez.

On the downside, Carlos Perez also merits a mention, but I thought all along his promotion to AA was too aggressive.
 
Thanks: a very useful post.

However, I would dispute that it's "[n]ot too early to think about [...] planning for [Victor Reyes'] taking over a corner outfield spot in 3 or 4 years," at least seriously, considering he's just nineteen years-old and has all of 94 PA above rookie-level under his belt. I think it's definitely too early; and, unless Reyes dramatically and decisively rises through the system—say, starting next season at AA and absolutely dominating through the course of 2015—then I don't think he should be a factor in the decisions regarding Upton and (especially) Heyward.
 
jpx7 said:
Thanks: a very useful post.

However, I would dispute that it's "[n]ot too early to think about [...] planning for [Victor Reyes'] taking over a corner outfield spot in 3 or 4 years," at least seriously, considering he's just nineteen years-old and has all of 94 PA above rookie-level under his belt. I think it's definitely too early; and, unless Reyes dramatically and decisively rises through the system—say, starting next season at AA and absolutely dominating through the course of 2015—then I don't think he should be a factor in the decisions regarding Upton and (especially) Heyward.
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Yeah. I probably am a bit early on that. He is going to be playing within driving distance of where I live in three weekends. Looking forward to seeing him in person. Then I'll know for sure! ;)
 
nsacpi said:
Yeah. I probably am a bit early on that. He is going to be playing within driving distance of where I live in three weekends. Looking forward to seeing him in person. Then I'll know for sure! ;)
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He's definitely an intriguing prospect—I'm just wary of making major-league roster decisions on the basis of a guy who may be three-to-five years away from having any major-league impact.
 
It wouldn't surprise me to see an IF of Peraza/Simmons/TLS/Freeman at some point in the future. At worst Peraza should become a valuable utility guy that can play all 3 IF positions, and maybe even some OF. It will be important to fill the IF positions on the cheap if Wren wants to keep Justin and/or Heyward around long term. CJ is a prime non-tender candidate this offseason, and we all know Uggla needs to be done at 2B as soon as possible.

The Braves system will not be producing an impact middle of the order hitter like Justin any time soon, so I think he has become the most important player to extend.
 
Enscheff said:
It wouldn't surprise me to see an IF of Peraza/Simmons/TLS/Freeman at some point in the future. At worst Peraza should become a valuable utility guy that can play all 3 IF positions, and maybe even some OF. It will be important to fill the IF positions on the cheap if Wren wants to keep Justin and/or Heyward around long term.

The Braves system will not be producing an impact middle of the order hitter like Justin any time soon, so I think he has become the most important player to extend.
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Peraza has a lot of possible landing spots. Second. Third. Center. That's a good thing because any of those could be areas of significant need by the time he's ready.
 
Late addition to the plus list is Aaron Northcraft. Had a thumb problem, but had a four-inning shutout relief stint followed by five innings, two hits and no runs today (Wenesday). At 6-4, 230, he looks like a million bucks. If he can build on this week, then watch out.

On the down side, Eric Garcia got demoted back to Rome and was hitting around .140. Rohm just now got himself back around .200. Hefflinger isn't even playing; betting his release is days away, if not hours.
 
nsacpi said:
Peraza has a lot of possible landing spots. Second. Third. Center. That's a good thing because any of those could be areas of significant need by the time he's ready.
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I predict...

TLS takes over for Uggla in about a month. CJ is let go, and Pena is used as a stopgap at 3B for 2015 and part of 2016. Peraza takes over 3B in the middle of the 2016 season. Heyward is extended and moves between CF/RF. Terdo starts as a bench bat in 2015 and slowly takes playing time from BJ. Justin is extended and lives happily ever after in LF while I continue to be infatuated with him. CB's offense falls flat but is still the backup behind Gattis starting in 2015.
 
CB at minimum will be a useful backup. I've never seen enough from his bat to think he could be a regular. No matter how good you are defensively, you aren't going to start in the majors with a .600 OPS. Unless you are Dan Uggla and he's kinda special.
 
I think its really reaching to even call Hefflinger a prospect. Just because a 25 year old mashes in the GCL doesn't make that person a prospect.
 
This guy likes Victor Reyes too...

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=22478

Victor Reyes LF ATL (Single-A, Rome/South Atlantic League)
The Venezuelan prospect is not nearly ready to make an impact in the majors for a couple of seasons. He projects out as a corner outfielder, with decent range and enough arm strength to slot in at either right or left field. He has height, but needs to fill out his frame, as he is just 190 pounds going into this season. Has not demonstrated any power to date, but could develop some pop as he grows into his body, being just 19 years old (he turns 20 in October). His base running instincts are not fully developed either, as despite swiping 22 bags between Rookie and Single-A, he has also been thrown out 10 times). Another plus for the youngster is an advanced understanding of the strike zone. If you believe in his power potential, now is the time to put him on your radar so you can act quickly as he develops into a usable corner outfielder of the future.
 
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