"Cheap" HRs...are the really cheap?

[Enscheff]

There was a lot of complaining about the number of "cheap" HRs hit the last 3 games between the Braves and Yankees. Many comments like "Judge should hit 80 HRs in this stadium", and, "Harper will hit 65 HRs as a Yankee", also sprung up as folks complained.

Let's take a look.

A spray chart of all FBs and LDs hit by the Yankees during the last 3 games plotted over Yankee Stadium:

Those same batted balls plotted over Suntrust:

The naked eye sees 1 less HR to RF, the silly wind blown Judge HR.

What about the Braves? Here are their FBs and LDs from the 3 game series plotted over Yankee Stadium:

Those same batted balls plotted over Suntrust:

I see 2 HRs by the Braves to RF that probably don't leave Suntrust, and one to CF that probably does (poor Albies). A net gain of 1 HR.

The point? Fans dramatically overstate how much effect ballpark dimensions have on HR totals.

 

[DirkPiggler]

There was a lot of complaining about the number of "cheap" HRs hit the last 3 games between the Braves and Yankees. Many comments like "Judge should hit 80 HRs in this stadium", and, "Harper will hit 65 HRs as a Yankee", also sprung up as folks complained.

Let's take a look.

A spray chart of all FBs and LDs hit by the Yankees during the last 3 games plotted over Yankee Stadium:

Those same batted balls plotted over Suntrust:

The naked eye sees 1 less HR to RF, the silly wind blown Judge HR.

What about the Braves? Here are their FBs and LDs from the 3 game series plotted over Yankee Stadium:

Those same batted balls plotted over Suntrust:

I see 2 HRs by the Braves to RF that probably don't leave Suntrust, and one to CF that probably does (poor Albies). A net gain of 1 HR.

The point? Fans dramatically overstate how much effect ballpark dimensions have on HR totals.

That's a good reality check.

It does seem like there were more wall-scraping HRs than are shown on that chart. But our eyes lie to us, especially when we are looking through slightly foggy beer goggles in the later innings.

 

[striker42]

MLBs official distances were way off. IIRC a ball that barely went 315 was listed at over 350.

 

[Enscheff]

MLBs official distances were way off. IIRC a ball that barely went 315 was listed at over 350.

So does that mean they are only off on HRs in NY? They are accurate in Atlanta? Or are they listed too long in NY and too short in Atlanta?

I love when folks chime in with unsubstantiated “facts”, and apply them only to data points they disagree with haha.

 

[msstate7]

Does this data take into effect the wall size difference?

 

[USMA76]

So does that mean they are only off on HRs in NY? They are accurate in Atlanta? Or are they listed too long in NY and too short in Atlanta?

I love when folks chime in with unsubstantiated “facts”, and apply them only to data points they disagree with haha.

Fair points as I have no idea how much the data is skewed in SunTrust. However, it doesn't pass the smell test when everyone sees a ball drop into the first row of seats directly behind a 314' sign and the official distance is 350'. Same thing with Judge's first HR on Monday night when a first row homer dropped in behind a 323' (I thought) marker yet was officially 350' or 360'.

Obviously, it doesn't change anything as the runs still count and the final scores still stand. The Braves won on a "wall scraper" on Monday night and came within a run on another glorified fly ball on Tuesday. Fans see what they want to see and then draw (usually flawed) conclusions from those observations. It's human nature to feel grumpy when you lose on a close play or close home run. I guess people feel that if you're going to get beat by a HR, it hurts a little less when it's a second deck/no-doubter. Conversely, nobody has complained too much about the home runs that Albies (as an example) has hit that barely cleared the fence; a grand slam in Miami comes to mind.

In the old Fulton County Stadium, there were a lot of cheapies that were the subject of a lot of grousing by opposing fans and players that nobody in Atlanta seemed to mind.

Bottom line is it's basic human nature to gripe about the breaks that hurt you while conveniently forgetting those that don't.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah, I'm going to call bluff on some of the distances that I'm sure the analytics say off of EV and launch angle. I actually go back to a Flowers ball that some thought was a HR robbery to dead center in suntrust on this too. It didn't look like that ball was gonna go to be honest and yet projected distance suggested it would have if not caught. However there was less of a margin of error here. Some of these may have been bigger.

Like Judge's first HR of the series dropped maybe 10 feet at the most in the seats...and it looked more like 5. But maybe an actual 330 is in the margin of error for statcast.

 

[thewupk]

Yeah, I'm going to call bluff on some of the distances that I'm sure the analytics say off of EV and launch angle. I actually go back to a Flowers ball that some thought was a HR robbery to dead center in suntrust on this too. It didn't look like that ball was gonna go to be honest and yet projected distance suggested it would have if not caught. However there was less of a margin of error here. Some of these may have been bigger.

Like Judge's first HR of the series dropped maybe 10 feet at the most in the seats...and it looked more like 5. But maybe an actual 330 is in the margin of error for statcast.

Statcast distance does not take the wall into effect. So hitting the top of the wall would still have a true distance of it landing behind the fence.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah, I'm going to call bluff on some of the distances that I'm sure the analytics say off of EV and launch angle. I actually go back to a Flowers ball that some thought was a HR robbery to dead center in suntrust on this too. It didn't look like that ball was gonna go to be honest and yet projected distance suggested it would have if not caught. However there was less of a margin of error here. Some of these may have been bigger.

Like Judge's first HR of the series dropped maybe 10 feet at the most in the seats...and it looked more like 5. But maybe an actual 330 is in the margin of error for statcast.

Well, you also said Albies was a lost cause and destined to be a .240 hitter.

I'll go ahead and ignore your take, and rely on the actual data that's available. There are certainly error bars, but they are consistent error bars in both directions at all parks.

 

[Southcack77]

Statcast distance does not take the wall into effect. So hitting the top of the wall would still have a true distance of it landing behind the fence.

Does it measure how far it would have traveled if it had returned to ground level?

The bleachers are considerably above ground level.

A couple of those looked like they landed less that ten feet from wall.

For the record I don’t care. The stadium is what it is. Doesn’t much matter if the Homer’s are cheap or not. Those dudes are strong to get balls that they didn’t hit that well out.

 

[striker42]

So does that mean they are only off on HRs in NY? They are accurate in Atlanta? Or are they listed too long in NY and too short in Atlanta?

I love when folks chime in with unsubstantiated “facts”, and apply them only to data points they disagree with haha.

I was more saying that a ball listed at a distance sufficient to clear the wall in Sun Trust probably wouldn't have. The data in sun trust is probably just as weird but a ball still has to travel a minimum distance to clear the wall.

 

[thewupk]

Does it measure how far it would have traveled if it had returned to ground level?

The bleachers are considerably above ground level.

A couple of those looked like they landed less that ten feet from wall.

For the record I don’t care. The stadium is what it is. Doesn’t much matter if the Homer’s are cheap or not. Those dudes are strong to get balls that they didn’t hit that well out.

Yeah as far as I know that's what it measures. If nothing (wall, fans, seats, etc) is in the way the how far does it go before it hits the ground.

NY has a short porch in right but I don't think it's as big of a deal as some make it to be. Braves certainly benefited a time or two.

 

[50PoundHead]

Good reality check. Yankee Stadium has been noted as a park friendly to LH power hitters since it was first built. I think one of the differences now is that with hitters getting stronger, RHHs like Judge can hit a glorified pop fly that ends up in the seats because his glorified pop flies go a long ways. Good for him. That was rare in other eras because of hitting styles and the differences in raw applicable strength between hitters of different eras. Ballparks are all a bit different, which is a throwback and a refreshing change from the cookie-cutter parks of the 1970s and 1980s. Pitchers need to adjust park-to-park.

 

[TheBravos]

Short porch and short wall just looks bad. It doesn’t look like a major league ball park there. Softball fences are higher.

I don’t care what the data says. Yankees should grow a set and at LEAST raise the wall.

I hate the park. It’s a joke. I really like Fenway. It’s all in the way it’s done.

 

[zitothebrave]

The point? Fans dramatically overstate how much effect ballpark dimensions have on HR totals.

Yes and no. Some hitters can snag another 5 or so homers in a park that benefit them. To me I think the best hitter to exemplify that is Ryan Howard. But it wasn't homers to RF that people always say is so short. He maybe added one a season if that from cheap right field homers. But he would add a few flower box homers to LF that would have been doubles in other parks. It isn't to take away from Howard's power. He got those cheap homers because of his power. A lesser hitter would have hit doubles down the line or weakly ground out because they're too on top of it. But there is something about certain parks and hitters that matter.

I mean in your own example you have 2 more homers over3 games, which by my quick math is 2 more homers in 157 balls in play or one per 80 let's just round. Which would be about 24 homers per season. Again, not huge when you're talking big picture. But it's still something. You're correct that the rhetoric is wrong. But there is something to park factors.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

It’s what a lot of people do here. Make excuses and cry.