Since They're Talking About Him

[clvclv]

And it's been such a slow week...

Assuming Arizona would eat ALL of the deferred money ($52.5 million) and the assignment bonus he's due if he's traded ($2 million), would you trade Garcia (Jaime) and ship Touki back to the desert for Greinke?

That gives you Zack and Julio at the top through 2020. If you did so, tacking on two more years to the end of Teheran's deal would then seem to be a no-brainer so you'd control them both through 2022, presumably making some of the other arms expendable - in the right deals, of course.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

And it's been such a slow week...

Assuming Arizona would eat ALL of the deferred money ($52.5 million) and the assignment bonus he's due if he's traded ($2 million), would you trade Garcia and ship Touki back to the desert?

That gives you Zack and Julio at the top through 2020. If you did so, tacking on two more years to the end of Teheran's deal would then seem to be a no-brainer so you'd control them both through 2022, presumably making some of the other arms expendable - in the right deals, of course.

If you can get them to eat all the deferred money and the trade bonus, then yes for Garcia (the 3B?, no idea why they would want him) and Touki. No brainer. You essentially get Greinke for $21M per year for Touki.

Even if the Braves didn't want to keep him, they could likely get a huge haul at the deadline from a contending team that would far outweigh just Touki.

Stranger things have happened, I guess.

 

[smootness]

They would never consider that, but yeah, of course.

 

[mqt]

Your first sentence is missing the name Greinke and it confused the **** out of me at first. But yes, I'd make that deal.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

If you can get them to eat all the deferred money and the trade bonus, then yes for Garcia (the 3B?, no idea why they would want him) and Touki. No brainer. You essentially get Greinke for $21M per year for Touki.

Even if the Braves didn't want to keep him, they could likely get a huge haul at the deadline from a contending team that would far outweigh just Touki.

Stranger things have happened, I guess.

I think it's Jaime. But yeah, would definitely do that deal.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think it's Jaime. But yeah, would definitely do that deal.

Ahh..

 

[Hawk]

Would anyone here do it if Arizona only ate $25MM of that deferred money?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Would anyone here do it if Arizona only ate $25MM of that deferred money?

Not me. He's 33. Too much risk. I might take him as a straight salary dump for that. Greinke and $25M for one season ticket to Braves home games located behind the RF support post.

 

[clvclv]

Cleaned up.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The thing is, I think Arizona has a better chance to compete than the Braves.

The Braves need a ton of things to go perfectly to compete (Freeman, Inciarte of the 2016 second half, the geezers to make it through the season and be effective, Johnson to be an effective closer, J Garcia to be viable, Swanson to progress, Jace and/or Albies to improve 2B dramatically, Kemp to mash and play passable defense, Markakis to at least not slide, etc.).

The D'backs need Greinke to pitch like an ace, Miller to return at least to St. Louis form if not Atlanta form, Walker to produce, Pollock to return and be his old self, etc.

I wouldn't bet on either. But if I had to choose one to compete it would be Arizona.

 

[smootness]

The thing is, I think Arizona has a better chance to compete than the Braves.

The Braves need a ton of things to go perfectly to compete (Freeman, Inciarte of the 2016 second half, the geezers to make it through the season and be effective, Johnson to be an effective closer, J Garcia to be viable, Swanson to progress, Jace and/or Albies to improve 2B dramatically, Kemp to mash and play passable defense, Markakis to at least not slide, etc.).

The D'backs need Greinke to pitch like an ace, Miller to return at least to St. Louis form if not Atlanta form, Walker to produce, Pollock to return and be his old self, etc.

I wouldn't bet on either. But if I had to choose one to compete it would be Arizona.

You may be right, but it's splitting hairs, really. Neither one is going to really compete. The D-Backs have too many guys on that roster with little hope of contributing much. Their offense is essentially just Pollock, Goldschmidt, and Lamb. That's not a bad start, but the rest of their lineup is not going to contribute much of anything and there's really no hope behind them. We have just Freeman and maybe Kemp as big bats, but we have more guys who will at least give us something, and a guy like Albies who may be ready quickly.

 

[Enscheff]

Have we still not learned the folly of signing pitchers to long term deals that extend into their mid/late 30s? The fact that every single one of them turns out poorly hasn't made anyone wisen up to just how bad they are?

The Braves should have zero interest in Grienke until the 2021/2022 offseason when he will be going into his age 38 season and can be picked up on a 1 year deal to temporarily fill a hole in the rotation.

 

[Preacher]

Have we still not learned the folly of signing pitchers to long term deals that extend into their mid/late 30s? The fact that every single one of them turns out poorly hasn't made anyone wisen up to just how bad they are?

The Braves should have zero interest in Grienke until the 2021/2022 offseason when he will be going into his age 38 season and can be picked up on a 1 year deal to temporarily fill a hole in the rotation.

What does this have to do with what the OP is talking about? Nobody in here is talking about signing Greinke to a massive deal, people are wondering if the Dbacks would pick up a big chunk of the money, would the Braves be interested and how much should we give up in that scenario? Two really different scenarios.

 

[Enscheff]

What does this have to do with what the OP is talking about? Nobody in here is talking about signing Greinke to a massive deal, people are wondering if the Dbacks would pick up a big chunk of the money, would the Braves be interested and how much should we give up in that scenario? Two really different scenarios.

Umm....

Grienke is owed 5/172. The genius, clv, suggested shipping Touki to AZ to lower that contract to 5/120.

Is that still not a "massive deal" that pays a pitcher into his late 30s?

Please explain how those are functionally different scenarios..

 

[clvclv]

Have we still not learned the folly of signing pitchers to long term deals that extend into their mid/late 30s? The fact that every single one of them turns out poorly hasn't made anyone wisen up to just how bad they are?

The Braves should have zero interest in Grienke until the 2021/2022 offseason when he will be going into his age 38 season and can be picked up on a 1 year deal to temporarily fill a hole in the rotation.

No. So go elsewhere and *iss in someone else's Corn Flakes.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Umm....

Grienke is owed 5/172. The genius, clv, suggested shipping Touki to AZ to lower that contract to 5/120.

Is that still not a "massive deal" that pays a pitcher into his late 30s?

Please explain how those are functionally different scenarios..

I think you are being a little closed minded here. Too by the book.

It would be a gamble but all moves have an element of risk.

IF the D'backs would do the original scenario, the Braves would get Greinke for an A ball pitcher with promise and control problems and a useful, but injury prone, FA to be lefty at a rate of 5/120. IF Greinke pitches anywhere near the ACE he has been, the Braves could easily flip him at the deadline (or offseason) for a much better package than Touki. If he doesn't pitch quite that well, they still likely could get a much better package than Touki in return in trade by agreeing to pay down a little more of what Greinke is owed (essentially buying talent). The risk is that he craters or gets hurt and can't be moved.

Let's say the Braves and D'Backs do the deal and Greinke goes 10-2 with a 2.5 at the All-Star break but the Braves are 10 games out. They should be able to flip him to a team like Houston, Texas, Yankees, etc. for 3 top talents without eating any money. So, they give up Touki and half a season of Garcia for a net gain of two top prospects. Maybe Cubs for maybe Happ, Jiminez and Candelario as an example.

Let's say he's not quite as good and goes 5-5 with a 3.8 at the All Star break and the Braves move him and $20M for two top prospects and a flyer. Maybe Cubs again for Jiminez, Candelario and Martinez.

You've gotten 1/2 a season out of Greinke (puts more fans in the seats), then turned one good prospect into two or three.

The real risk is that the Braves will stay in it enough so that the FO won't consider trading him.

But, I don't think Arizona is desperate enough to do the OP's deal.

 

[Enscheff]

I think you are being a little closed minded here. Too by the book.

It would be a gamble but all moves have an element of risk.

IF the D'backs would do the original scenario, the Braves would get Greinke for an A ball pitcher with promise and control problems and a useful, but injury prone, FA to be lefty at a rate of 5/120. IF Greinke pitches anywhere near the ACE he has been, the Braves could easily flip him at the deadline (or offseason) for a much better package than Touki. If he doesn't pitch quite that well, they still likely could get a much better package than Touki in return in trade by agreeing to pay down a little more of what Greinke is owed (essentially buying talent). The risk is that he craters or gets hurt and can't be moved.

Let's say the Braves and D'Backs do the deal and Greinke goes 10-2 with a 2.5 at the All-Star break but the Braves are 10 games out. They should be able to flip him to a team like Houston, Texas, Yankees, etc. for 3 top talents without eating any money. So, they give up Touki and half a season of Garcia for a net gain of two top prospects. Maybe Cubs for maybe Happ, Jiminez and Candelario as an example.

Let's say he's not quite as good and goes 5-5 with a 3.8 at the All Star break and the Braves move him and $20M for two top prospects and a flyer. Maybe Cubs again for Jiminez, Candelario and Martinez.

You've gotten 1/2 a season out of Greinke (puts more fans in the seats), then turned one good prospect into two or three.

The real risk is that the Braves will stay in it enough so that the FO won't consider trading him.

But, I don't think Arizona is desperate enough to do the OP's deal.

And the absolute downside is Grienke gets hurt, as pitchers in the their mid-30s tend to do, and the Braves are stuck with a 5/120 albatross.

MLB teams trade for MLB arms to extract value from them immediately because pitches are so volatile. If a team is not in a position on the win curve to benefit from a pitcher's production, they need to cash out. This is the basis behind the argument for the Braves trading Teheran, and for the ChiSox to trade Q now rather than at the deadline or the offseason.

Your best case scenario has the Braves trading 4.5 years of an effective Grienke with a cost of ~$110M to a contender for 3 top talents. That is completely unrealistic. The ChiSox are trying to get 3 top prospects for Q at 4/38, and that deal isn't happening. There is no way the Braves would get a similar package for Grienke at 4.5/110.

The Braves would be lucky to get 1 top prospect for Grienke under such a scenario. Absolutely, without a doubt, not worth the risk.

Grienke will probably bounce back to being a 3-4 WAR guy in 2017, then decline as is typical for pitchers in their mid-30s. He is probably worth ~$100M, so the DBacks would have to eat $70M just to give him away for nothing.

He is yet another data point that should make it beyond obvious how stupid it is to commit to pitchers into their mid-30s.

 

[smootness]

Uh, the Cubs are not giving up that package for Greinke with those numbers, no matter how much money we eat.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Uh, the Cubs are not giving up that package for Greinke with those numbers, no matter how much money we eat.

I am not saying they would or wouldn't... but did you see what they gave up for 1/2 year of Chapman.. Teams at the deadline who think they need only one more piece to actually win the thing, WILL do STUPID things.

 

[Enscheff]

No. So go elsewhere and *iss in someone else's Corn Flakes.

Can you remind us the players you suggested in your brilliant trade proposal to bring Sale to the Braves?

You have shown time after time you don't have the first clue about player valuation. You were wrong about Sale. You are wrong now. You are always wrong.

You are a waste of messageboard space.