Surplus value calculations of the Greinke trade

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
clvclv made another typically proud anti-intellectual comment regarding the Greinke trade:

clvclv said:
Couldn't help myself...
Sure looks like Luhnow *hit all over those value charts today - those explanations sure ought to be interesting.
Was anybody traded today not an overpay???
Click to expand...

I promised a breakdown:

Enscheff said:
Hey the derp master himself makes an appearance.

I’ll do a surplus value calc for you later, though you won’t be able to follow
Click to expand...

so here it is...not that he will understand.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/dbacks-trade-zack-greinke-astros.html

The Astros still owe Greinke ~$53M over the next 2.5 season. In those seasons he is projected to produce the following wins:

2019: 1.3 (doubled to 2.6 for contender's premium)
2020: 4.5
2021: 4.0
Total: 11.1 WAR

Multiplying that 11.1 WAR value by $9M per WAR over the next 2.5 seasons yields a positive value of ~$100M.

Subtract the ~$53M he is owed by the Astros, and you get ~$47M in surplus value.

Let's take a look at what the Astros gave up using values from the following tables:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

Martin RHP: FV 50 = ~$21M
Buk RHP: FV 50 = ~$21M
Beer 1B: FV 45 = ~$6M
Rojas 3B: FV 35+ = ~$0

Total: $48M in prospect value

Notice the values in bold are almost exactly equal?

One more tidbit:

"A third of his salary in 2019-21 is deferred and will be paid out in annual payment of $12.5MM from 2022-26, thus reducing at least some of the immediate financial implications for Houston."

Deferred money carries a lower present day value, so the Astros are actually paying Greinke less than the $53M they owe him on paper. Therefore, they actually came out a little ahead by the surplus value model.

So there you go clvderp...surplus value model holds up just as well as ever despite your complete inability to understand it.

Deeerrrrppppp!!
 
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Enscheff said:
clvclv made another typically proud anti-intellectual comment regarding the Greinke trade:



I promised a breakdown:



so here it is...not that he will understand.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/dbacks-trade-zack-greinke-astros.html

The Astros sill owe Greinke ~$53M over the next 2.5 season. In those season he is projected to produce the following wins:

2019: 1.3 (doubled to 2.6 for contender's premium)
2020: 4.5
2021: 4.0
Total: 11.1 WAR

Multiplying that 11.1 WAR value by $9M per WAR over the next 2.5 seasons yields a positive value of ~$100M.

Subtract the ~$53M he is owed by the Astros, and you get ~$47M in surplus value.

Let's take a look at what the Astros gave up using values from the following tables:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

Martin RHP: FV 50 = ~$21M
Buk RHP: FV 50 = ~$21M
Beer 1B: FV 45 = ~$6M
Rojas 3B: FV 35+ = ~$0

Total: $48M in prospect value

Notice the values in bold are almost exactly equal?

One more tidbit:

"A third of his salary in 2019-21 is deferred and will be paid out in annual payment of $12.5MM from 2022-26, thus reducing at least some of the immediate financial implications for Houston."

Deferred money carries a lower present day value, so the Astros are actually paying Greinke less than the $53M they owe him on paper. Therefore, they actually came out a little ahead by the surplus value model.

So there you go clvderp...surplus value model holds up just as well as ever despite your complete inability to understand it.

Deeerrrrppppp!!
Click to expand...
Hard to imagine the Braves having a better opportunity to add a TOR guy this off-season with just two years of commitment at a reasonable salary (considering the salary AZ assumed in this trade).
 
chop2chip said:
Hard to imagine the Braves having a better opportunity to add a TOR guy this off-season with just two years of commitment at a reasonable salary (considering the salary AZ assumed in this trade).
Click to expand...

The Astros have done well to add pitchers like Cole, Verlander and Greinke without giving up top prospects by leveraging their rather large payroll. They are one of the current model franchises.
 
Enscheff said:
The Astros have done well to add pitchers like Cole, Verlander and Greinke without giving up top prospects by leveraging their rather large payroll. They are one of the current model franchises.
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They have built an elite rotation without spending much on free agent pitching or using a ton of draft capital on pitchers. It’s very impressive. It would be nice to see AA try to utilize at least a discount version of this approach.
 
clv gonna clv

enscheff is right. Astros are THE model franchise right now. They have great owners who will spend cash when needed, they have great scouting, gm makes sound decisions to leverage their cash/prospects, and they have a developmental process where they can seemingly fix any pitcher. Very similar to the 90s Braves.
 
For some of the dumber posters it is very hard to see, and I doubt this breakdown does anything to help.
 
It's a good trade for both sides, not an overpay, and not a fleece either way.
 
chop2chip said:
Hard to imagine the Braves having a better opportunity to add a TOR guy this off-season with just two years of commitment at a reasonable salary (considering the salary AZ assumed in this trade).
Click to expand...

Yep.

Huge missed opportunity.
 
chop2chip said:
They have built an elite rotation without spending much on free agent pitching or using a ton of draft capital on pitchers. It’s very impressive. It would be nice to see AA try to utilize at least a discount version of this approach.
Click to expand...

Well the Braves aren’t exactly where the Astros are yet in the rebuild. Their rotation wasn’t exactly this stacked when they started their run
 
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