Tanaka/Myers/Prospect Valuation Thought Experiment
- Thread starter nsacpi
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I dont get it. Tanaka will get 6-7 years at 100+ million total after a 20 million dollar posting fee. Myers doesnt get anywhere close to that. How does that make the Myers-Shields trade look worse? The only chance the Royals have to make the deal work is if they get a good prospect with the pick they get from Shields leaving. Draft someone that turns into an all star and then you could say it was a win for the Royals.
I'm not so sure. If Myers were in the Japanese league posting a line of 300/389/511 - 911 (his career minor league numbers) while over there and gets posted then what do you think he would get. I think he would get something like 15 million a year over 6-7 years. Just as it would be the case if he was a free agent this winter.
jsebe10
Well-known member
Agreed. It's the reversal of Wainwright for Drew trade. Still haunts me.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Well said!
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Hold on thar'!
Prices for pitching are at a premium this off-season. I frankly don't think Shields-for-Myers is beyond the pale. It was a now-for-later trade and those happen all the time. I think it's on the throw-ins where Dayton can be roundly criticized.
Royals improved 14 games from 2012 to 2013. That probably doesn't happen without Shields and Santana.
Prices for pitching are at a premium this off-season. I frankly don't think Shields-for-Myers is beyond the pale. It was a now-for-later trade and those happen all the time. I think it's on the throw-ins where Dayton can be roundly criticized.
Royals improved 14 games from 2012 to 2013. That probably doesn't happen without Shields and Santana.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
They also had better production from their position players overall. Meyers may not be the missing piece but long term it's gonna be a terrible trade.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Where do you see Myers long term? Just curious about your thoughts on him.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I loved Myers as a prospect. Offensively my concern is his K rate. But I think his closest MLB comp is Stanton. Though he doesn't seem to walk as much as Stanton, I don't think he'll K as much, the question will be will his Minor league power show. My bet is yes but we'll have to see. If you remove some power then I guess he'll be kind of like Jim edmonds maybe?
Actually most of their relevant position players regressed. Butler, Gordon, Moose Tacos, Escobar, and Perez all had worse seasons than 2012. Only Hosmer improved (albeit a very large improvement)
Shields ended up being their ace and he has expressed interest in an extension. Generally you go for the position player over the starting pitcher, but the Royals felt like their core hitting was set and they absolutely had to improve the pitching. It produced impressive results right away. They finished like 3-4 games out of the playoffs. With another step forward from Hosmer and a return to the norms for Gordon and Butler, this KC team could be a contender to dethrone the Tigers
They were a much much better team defensively in 2013 which is where the majority of their success came from. Yes their pitching improved but not as much as you would think. 4.18 team FIP in 2012 compared to 3.83 FIP in 2013. That's a nice improvement and Shields definately helped out there with his 3.47 FIP. But the Royals team defense went from -32 UZR to +68. That obviously boosted their positional player WAR from 12.7 to 22.5 which is a huge improvement. And why they had a team ERA 3.45 compared to 4.30 era. last year. So yeah their pitching ERA was lowered almost an entire run. Their pitching did improve but the defense was a larger reason for that drop.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
What if Myers blows up big-time? Can the Rays afford to extend him through his arbitration years given their budget constraints?
Moore had to solidify the team in the short-term and Shields helped with that. Like Carp said, the offense actually looked a little more dicey in 2013 and there's no doubt that Myers would have helped with that, but if Shields is extended and pitches well through a four- or five-year deal, I still don't think it's a terrible trade.
Moore had to solidify the team in the short-term and Shields helped with that. Like Carp said, the offense actually looked a little more dicey in 2013 and there's no doubt that Myers would have helped with that, but if Shields is extended and pitches well through a four- or five-year deal, I still don't think it's a terrible trade.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
The Myers/Shields trade is awful, there is no way around it.
I love Shields but to trade a potential All-Star hitter for maybe 2 years of Shields in his 30's is just awful.
Myers is the real deal, you dont trade him for 32 starts of Shields.
It's one of the worst deals of all-time, said it when it was made, it's just gonna get worse and worse as Myers keeps improving.
I love Shields but to trade a potential All-Star hitter for maybe 2 years of Shields in his 30's is just awful.
Myers is the real deal, you dont trade him for 32 starts of Shields.
It's one of the worst deals of all-time, said it when it was made, it's just gonna get worse and worse as Myers keeps improving.
^^This^^
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You ignored the defense and baserunning aspects of position players. Overall as a team the Royals in 2012 had a 93 wRC+ -25.0 UZR and 2.0 BsR. In 2013 they had a worse offensive season dropping to 88 wRC+ But a big improvement in baserunning to 19.1 and a gigantic improvement in defense to 68.3.
Now were they a better team in 2013 because of Shields? Almost certainly yes, the Royals RF didn't hit much (85 wRC+) and Myers for sure would have crushed that. BUt Myers isn't a great defender (probably a bad one actually) and Lorenzo Cain and David Lough are great out there. Infact if the ROyals had done the one other smart thing, and ****canned Failcoeur, their RF production liekly would have been much better.
That said, long term, Myers>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Shields.
I forget if it was 50 who pointed out that the Rays can't afford to keep Myers, then they'll just pawn him off for talent. Friedman rarely loses trades.