Tell Your Statistics to Shut Up (Bullpen edition)

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Since my week was already off to a crappy start, I bit the bullet and looked these up, anyway:

Through Sunday's latest soul crusher, the Braves' bullpen as a whole has a record of 11-22, which means that they have more losses than saves (19). And that gawdawful record includes the highly misleading records of Josh Tomlin (3-0, 5.79) and Sean Newcomb (2-0, 5.83).

That means Braves starters have a perfectly respectable record of 34-25, including the highly accurate disaster that is Kyle Wright (0-1, 9.95). That now updates Wright's career record to 2-8, 6.56.
 
The biggest issue is BP management. That's always been Snits weak link. But this year, he doesn't have the depth at BP that he's had much of the last 2 seasons which has helped mask that weakness. Add on top some bad luck, and we now see that weakness being exposed in a major way.
 
Its just one guy EVERY SINGLE NIGHT.

We get most of them throwing fine and its the one guy that can't keep it in the ballpark.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Higher order winning percentages say that the Braves should be in first place with a winning record.
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This is the payback for the exact opposite happening last year. The poor luck this season is uncanny.

It's like every single wrong move turns into disaster, whereas last year they all worked out no matter what.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the payback for the exact opposite happening last year. The poor luck this season is uncanny.

It's like every single wrong move turns into disaster, whereas last year they all worked out no matter what.
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Well, gotta figure bad pitching moves should still go at least 60/40 to the pitcher, so hopefully things are about to start evening out
 
msstate7 said:
The advanced stats say minter is good, which makes me question them.
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He's good until he isn't.

But seriously. There is nothing wrong with a 2.89 FIP, .308 wOBA, or even a 4.18 ERA. The 330 BABIP likely raised that era higher than it should of been. Those were his numbers in the 1st half.

Now the 2 appearances (1 inning) since the break ended have been horrendous. And I suppose the Braves need some sort of scape goat to try and shake things up. Not that it really matters though.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the payback for the exact opposite happening last year. The poor luck this season is uncanny.

It's like every single wrong move turns into disaster, whereas last year they all worked out no matter what.
Click to expand...

That's it in a nutshell. There's a lot of hand-wringing over things that weren't done on the margins, but if Ozuna and d'Arnaud are healthy (and Ozuna not in legal trouble), the season probably looks somewhat different. As I posted last week, with Acuna hurt, the OF has no one in it that was expected to be there during the off-season.

Pitching has been spotty. Snitker hasn't helped in that department with his "throwback" handling of the starters, but it's almost "pull a name out of a hat" when it comes to the bullpen.
 
50PoundHead said:
That's it in a nutshell. There's a lot of hand-wringing over things that weren't done on the margins, but if Ozuna and d'Arnaud are healthy (and Ozuna not in legal trouble), the season probably looks somewhat different. As I posted last week, with Acuna hurt, the OF has no one in it that was expected to be there during the off-season.

Pitching has been spotty. Snitker hasn't helped in that department with his "throwback" handling of the starters, but it's almost "pull a name out of a hat" when it comes to the bullpen.
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Here's the thing about Ozuna though. Sure he only had 200 PA this year and could have turned it around, but he was playing extremely poor. There's no guarantee he would have been a positive for us at any point.

In fact going by WAR, Guillermo Heredia has been more of a positive than Ozuna was over a similar amount of ABs.
 
I will mention that the Braves are 2-7 in extra inning games, and in those seven losses, the bullpen has given up 3 ER in the seven innings. The offense has scored exactly two runs in those seven losses, so I put the blame for those squarely on an offense that MUST score that runner from second. In six of the seven extra inning losses, the Braves failed to score even one run.

I do agree though that the middle innings - getting from the SP to Martin/Smith with a lead - has been troubling this season. But I also believe the Braves aren't nearly as potent offensively in those late innings, getting tack-on runs that help out the bullpen. In the past three seasons, the Braves have been exceptional at scoring in the late innings. This year it seems like there's no late inning comebacks, and no insurance runs with a slim lead.
 
Nerfherders said:
I will mention that the Braves are 2-7 in extra inning games, and in those seven losses, the bullpen has given up 3 ER in the seven innings. The offense has scored exactly two runs in those seven losses, so I put the blame for those squarely on an offense that MUST score that runner from second. In six of the seven extra inning losses, the Braves failed to score even one run.

I do agree though that the middle innings - getting from the SP to Martin/Smith with a lead - has been troubling this season. But I also believe the Braves aren't nearly as potent offensively in those late innings, getting tack-on runs that help out the bullpen. In the past three seasons, the Braves have been exceptional at scoring in the late innings. This year it seems like there's no late inning comebacks, and no insurance runs with a slim lead.
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But that ability to tack on seems to come and go year to year, So what to do?
 
rico43 said:
including the highly accurate disaster that is Kyle Wright (0-1, 9.95). That now updates Wright's career record to 2-8, 6.56.
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