The 2019 Money

[clvclv]

Assuming no significant additions are made via trade prior to next winter (not really much of a need to), where would YOU spend the ~$80 million that's assumed to be available?

Before the usual suspects start calling people idiots, understand that this is the place for you to express your preference, and that the "geniuses" climbing your *ss about where you'd spend it are the actual idiots.

1.) 3B. 4 years/$120 million for Donaldson to finish his career. Riley moves to LF. ($30 million)

2.) The pen. 4 years/$60 million for Kimbrel to come home. After transitioning Newcomb and Touki, a Kimbrel/Minter/Vizcaino/Newcomb/Touki back-end would be absolutely filthy. ($15 million)

3.) The kids. Do whatever it takes to lock up Albies, Acuna, Gohara, and Soroka so that they'll also be cost-controlled in case they explode and draw such big arbitration salaries that you have no flexibility. (???)

We may not have a textbook "Ace", but the combination of Gohara, Wright, Julio, Soroka, Folty, Allard, and Anderson give us as good a shot at developing a legitimate #1, #2, and #3 from within as anyone out there, and they'll be cheap. If they're not enough to get you over the top, someone that overpaid for a front-line guy will be looking to unload him.

 

[Enscheff]

Anyone who thinks the Braves are going to give a BP arm $15M per year hasn’t been paying attention the last decade. Further, Kimbrel is going to blow past $60M. He will be getting Jansen money. Someone has no clue how to value players, but I won’t name names.

The Braves will need the same thing they need this year...LF and 3B. Look for them to give someone at one of those positions $75M-$100M, and then fill in the holes with the typical lower priced fodder.

I would like to see them make a play on Grandal too.

A blockbuster with a team who just decided to rebuild next offseason is also likely. Maybe SF will blow things up and deal Posey and Bumgarner. Tigers may still have Fulmer. Jays may be ready to deal Stroman. Rays may decide to move Archer. Yelich and/Realmuto may still be Marlins.

 

[Heyward]

I'd trade for Yelich now which would love up the outfield for the next 5+ years.

And go after a 3B or C.

And yeah, Kimbrel is gonna get at least 5 years, 100 million even with an opt-out after 3 years.

If we went after a RP, i'd go for Andrew Miller, could use him at closer or set up.

 

[jpx7]

I'd third the expectation re Kimbrel. I never anticipate "hometown" discounts; and, even if Kimbrel were to offer one to the Braves, I think it's more likely to be $20 instead of $22 million AAV, versus $15 million. I also think the Braves would be ludicrous to devote their resources there.

I'm definitely an advocate of using the space now to relieve the Marlins of good players/contracts (Yelich) in exchange for also swallowing bad players/contracts (Chen, Prado). It seems like a rare opportunity to take advantage of a team desperate to move pieces for anti-competitive reasons, and likewise to water down talent-cost with dollar-cost.

 

[clvclv]

I'd third the expectation re Kimbrel. I never anticipate "hometown" discounts; and, even if Kimbrel were to offer one to the Braves, I think it's more likely to be $20 instead of $22 million AAV, versus $15 million. I also think the Braves would be ludicrous to devote their resources there.

I'm definitely an advocate of using the space now to relieve the Marlins of good players/contracts (Yelich) in exchange for also swallowing bad players/contracts (Chen, Prado). It seems like a rare opportunity to take advantage of a team desperate to move pieces for anti-competitive reasons, and likewise to water down talent-cost with dollar-cost.

The only problem with this line of thinking is that the almighty has told us the Braves are broke - there's absolutely no way they can afford to eat money from bad contracts in 2017, all the money is gone.

 

[Southcack77]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

 

[Enscheff]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

The idea is that since the Braves are punting this year, they may as well use the extra payroll from a lost season to improve the team for the next 5 years. That’s kinda the ultimate goal for rebuilding teams.

I don’t understand why it’s so hard to understand.

 

[jpx7]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

The Kimbrel thing doesn't really make much sense. But I have to echo Enscheff here: the value of acquiring, through salary-dump versus through prospect capital, any good player on a good contract (Yelich or otherwise) seems pretty obvious.

 

[Hawk]

It'd be nice to find a happy medium with the Marlins between giving up decent prospects and acquiring bloated contracts. Preferably somewhere before taking on Chen's contract, but after absorbing monies owed to Prado and Tazawa/Ziegler.

I think the smart money is (rightfully) on the Marlins chaining Chen to Yelich.

 

[Chico]

It'd be nice to find a happy medium with the Marlins between giving up decent prospects and acquiring bloated contracts. Preferably somewhere before taking on Chen's contract, but after absorbing monies owed to Prado and Tazawa/Ziegler.

I think the smart money is (rightfully) on the Marlins chaining Chen to Yelich.

Yelich has so much surplus value the Marlins could still attach Chen to him and get a haul back. Looking at their prospects they really need some hitting prospects in there. I'd start out with Riley and Ajax as replacements for Bour and Realmuto, then 2 pitchers from there out of Allard, Soroka, and Anderson.

Yelich and Chen for Allard, Anderson, Riley, and Ajax.

 

[Southcack77]

The idea is that since the Braves are punting this year, they may as well use the extra payroll from a lost season to improve the team for the next 5 years. That’s kinda the ultimate goal for rebuilding teams.

I don’t understand why it’s so hard to understand.

Because the money they’d be taking on wouldn’t just be in 2018, it would be several years beyond.

 

[Jaw]

He's an awesome player. An awesome center fielder. I'm just not sure it makes sense for this team to take on years of salary (again) and pay a high prospect cost to put a really good CFer in LF.

 

[nsacpi]

Most likely we will spend on left, third and catcher for 2019.

Assuming a market price of 8M per win, we can use 60M to buy 7-8 wins at those three positions. So maybe 2 wins at catcher and 3 wins each at third and left. Those are the economics of the free agent market.

Alternatively, we can find ways to "stretch" the budget. One way is to extent someone like Flowers on a team friendly deal. Would allow us to shop in the higher rent district at third and left.

We can also "stretch" the budget by filling some of our needs through trades. That allows the acquisition of some players with surplus value rather than paying the market rate which by definition has no surplus value. You can do that if you have depth at certain positions. It is possible that we will have an extra starting pitcher that we could trade next off-season to fill needs elsewhere. I would oppose "stretching" the budget by dipping too deeply into the farm system for trade chips. That would imo have a significant negative effect on the length of our competitive window, which has already been negatively affected by the scandal and associated penalties.

Finally, of course there are surprises. Right now it looks like our needs will be catcher, third and left. But that could change. Both for the better and worse. I'd keep an eye on the situation at short.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Sign me up for anyone who is a great defender. Don’t care if a guy who can play center is playing a corner. I want my young pitchers. Hell I want all my pitcher throwing while they have the best possible defense behind them.

 

[nsacpi]

Sign me up for anyone who is a great defender. Don’t care if a guy who can play center is playing a corner. I want my young pitchers. Hell I want all my pitcher throwing while they have the best possible defense behind them.

I'm a big fan of having two center fielder caliber defenders in the outfield. I think the extra benefit from having a third defender of that caliber is significantly less than having a second one.

Meanwhile there is a certain amount of complementarity on offense from having a mix of power and OBP. And looking at our likely lineup for 2019, I see some need for power. It isn't the kind of consideration that overrides everything else (having good players of whatever type is more important), but at the margins it argues in favor of someone who has power in left.

 

[clvclv]

I'm a big fan of having two center fielder caliber defenders in the outfield. I think the extra benefit from having a third defender of that caliber is significantly less than having a second one.

Meanwhile there is a certain amount of complementarity on offense from having a mix of power and OBP. And looking at our likely lineup for 2019, I see some need for power. It isn't the kind of consideration that overrides everything else (having good players of whatever type is more important), but at the margins it argues in favor of someone who has power in left.

This is a part of the reason I'd almost rather stay out of the bidding war for Yelich if and when the Marlins actually do make him available. I think everybody understands how inefficient going nuts on free-agents would be, but when your openings line up perfectly with what's going to be available next winter, I'm more inclined to use the prospects to fill another need. I also agree that an expensive closer is typically a bad use of resources, but if that's one of the final pieces, I understand when teams commit to one.

I think you stay away from anything that adds to payroll next year - which means no Prado in a deal for Yelich. It's certainly out of character for the Braves under previous leadership, but I believe you need to do whatever you have to do (including winning a bidding war) for Donaldson next winter (assuming something crazy doesn't happen and AA goes out and gets Moustakas). He just fits too perfectly to pass on him - assuming you're looking at a competitive window of 2019-2022, you control almost every other piece for that period. You'd need to find a way to tack at least one more year onto Freddie's deal (I think he'd be open to it) and pick up Ender's option year, but you would still have Albies, Acuna, Dansby/Camargo, Riley, Pache, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Soroka, Wright, Allard, Anderson, Minter, Touki, Lindgren, Wentz, Wilson, Davidson, Weigel, and whomever you get with the #8 pick in June for that entire time.

I'm all for developing inexpensive Closers from within, it's just that the Braves have always shied away from turning someone with unbelievable stuff (like Folty, Newcomb, or Touki) into a bullpen weapon until it's too late in the past. Hopefully that will change under AA. If he's willing to keep a couple guys like that instead of trying to use them as trade bait there's absolutely no reason to spend on Kimbrel or a Kimbrel-type. Take that money and give it to Adam Jones or McCutchen on a 4 year deal to play LF for the entire competitive window and use Riley, Jackson, and a couple of arms to go get your "Ace" instead.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

 

[Heyward]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

Who do you pay the money then too?

Braves only have 46 million pre-arb next year in 2019, they could certainly go after a big name if they wanted to do so. Not sure if they will but the moneys there to do so.

And spending money on a big name BP arm isnt a bad idea given bullpens win in the postseason.

 

[thethe]

While it would be nice to have a shiny expensive toy the goal should be to build a 25 man roster without dead weight. I'd rather invest in the extensions and bench/BP arms while our young players develop. Keep that money short term so youi can strike when a player is available that fits a short/long term need.

 

[Enscheff]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

If we assume a payroll of $110M+ this year and a team pushing .500, I think it’s safe to assume a payroll of $125M+ in 2019. Using the 20% rule of thumb, the Braves could add a player making $25M per year and not be in jeopardy of using too much payroll in a single player.

Obviously Machado and Harper are out, but that puts Donaldson on the edge of being possible...or at least worth rosterbation. Something like 6/150 with the plan being Donaldson replacing Freeman at 1b when his contract expires. Not likely, but plausible.

Next off season I expect the Braves to finally convert young pitching into MLB talent, buy a FA in the $100M bin, fill in with 1-2 more significant FAs (like Grandal), and possibly trade Teheran with 2 seasons of control left (though that may not be a plan AA picked up in LA).